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Messages - Wombles

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Morning all!
« on: Today at 06:48:56 AM »
Good morning all Waspies from a dark and quiet Guildford. Advent has begun, and I am officially in the Christmas mood as our Christmas tree and decorations go up today. I have noted with interest that many have done this in November this year, however there has been no premature treejaculation in our house, but come tea time it will certainly have the full festive feel. The question remains will it be us Waspies heading home with a 4-5 point present, or will it be a lump of coal that awaits us?

Sixways is a tough old place to get a result, and I am certain that Warriors will not be in the giving mood. There will be no gift wrapped win, and if we are to get a result today we are going to need to wrest it from them like a Boxing Day sale shopper.
Worcester are no push overs, and when I looked at their team yesterday you can see big performers throughout. But what struck me about their selection was balance, both in the starting XV and importantly on the bench. We however are at a Ďall hands to the pumpí situation. I never like a 6-2 bench split unless weather and playing surface dictates, as it narrows our options if things are not going well -this is not one of those times- And it would only take 1-2 knocks to starting players before combinations start to suffer as players shuffle out of position. Eddie Jones seems to think you can slot a player anywhere and they can perform. Yet he is wrong that numbers on a players back are inconsequential, each position has certain skills and attributes that if not mastered can leave you wanting. If that happens team performance dips and you are in trouble. Yet a team with Nizam and Alfie on the bench will always remain a threat.

You have to say Worcester are favourites today...We are going to have to fight for this one as we need to stay in touch with the top 6.

Come on you Wasps!!!

Chris

Once a Wasp ALWAYS a Wasp!  ;D

2
He is a chap who needs full support and also congratulations for how he takes such ownership of his recovery, yet equally is so strong to show vulnerability when it occurs (a huge part of healing can happen through this process).

As an aside, I said at the time of his injury that the horrendous crocodile roll needs eradicating from our game as soon as possible. The game is high risk enough, but players jackaling over a ball who are then experienced to forceful lateral forces moving against the natural movement of the knee is a recipe for disaster. We do not let people into the side of the ruck, why let people be moved out sideways either?

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Munster still in SA
« on: November 29, 2021, 02:21:46 PM »
Viruses innately want to survive... Of course it is not a conscious decision, but the drive for survival is still there.

No they don't. And no it isn't.

The idea that there is any drive, desire, want, or appetite of any sort on the part of a virus is a fundamental flaw in understanding.

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You mention mortality of influenza v covid VV, however that is based upon case fatality rate, not the devilishly harder but more accurate infectivity fatality rate. If we were able to "capture" every single case of covid infection then that fatality rate would like tumble rapidly.

As long as we use the same measure each, that comparison stands. I did, and so it does. The very best case estimate of the WHO is that Covid is 20x more deadly than seasonal flu.

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Now I am not here to underplay the pandemic, quite the opposite in fact. However what cannot be ignored is that viruses/pandemics are not new...

But covid is new. We are still learning about it, and so the way we act must by necessity change as we learn more, or as the virus mutates.

I will go on record now as stating that any posts about how safe Covid is, how it "wants" anything, how it is similar to flu or anything  at all covid related claiming a scientific justification without inuding the source references will be deleted from this forum.

I feel it is best to open here as once more I am not sure you are reading my posts properly. I have never stated covid is safe at any stage...indeed I have said quite the opposite. I have a background in virology as part of my under and post grad studies, and thus this is why my view -as i already stated- is that viruses can mutate to be milder and also more severe.

This discussion reminds me of the lively arguments had during lectures in medical school. VV I do not know your background, but if your education is the in the medical/science fields as mine you will already be aware that whether viruses are alive is a rather 'active' subject as it depends on how you define "life". To be fair there is no definitive answer and divides opinion to this day with many saying absolutely not...and others not so sure.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zkcvhcw

https://www.newscientist.com/question/are-viruses-alive/ (for easier reading)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5406846/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2837877/ (heavier reading)


No arguments about the fatality rate if we use the same measure.

Once more I will state that I am not arguing if Influenza and Covid are the same from a genetic viewpoint, they are distinct viruses in their own right. I am talking about symptoms, incubation, epidemiology, impact on health and society....THAT is where we can make comparisons.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-similarities-and-differences-with-influenza

Look VV I am not hear to argue (with anyone). However I think my posts are reflective of someone who respects the severity of disease, and in this case the lethality of covid and, as discussed, influenza. I believe there needs to be ongoing management on this, however I would disagree with further lockdowns given the tools in our Armory. I also believe that there needs to be balance to demonstrate how we will manage this pandemic going forward, providing reassurance whilst ensuring this virus (like so many others) deserves respect and caution.


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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Munster still in SA
« on: November 29, 2021, 10:46:21 AM »
I stand by my comments, none of them are misinformation (your assertion that it is, is incorrect), I would postulate you have misinterpreted my meaning. You will also note if you read my post that I was also against personalizing viruses as well.

Viruses innately want to survive... Of course it is not a conscious decision, but the drive for survival is still there. Of course some evolve into deadlier forms...that is why I mentioned the H1 N1 strain of Influenza where there was a estimated 25-50 million deaths worldwide from that pandemic/strain alone with a estimated mortality rate of 10-20%. Annually we can see up to 650,000 influenza related deaths. Genetically speaking influenza and coronavirus are distinct entities, but I am not making comparisons there, however when we start looking a epidemiology, seasonal distribution, impact on health and disease then comparisons can be drawn. You mention mortality of influenza v covid VV, however that is based upon case fatality rate, not the devilishly harder but more accurate infectivity fatality rate. If we were able to "capture" every single case of covid infection then that fatality rate would like tumble rapidly.

Now I am not here to underplay the pandemic, quite the opposite in fact. However what cannot be ignored is that viruses/pandemics are not new...this will not be the last one as we average one every 50-100 years. We have a yearly epidemic in influenza which can be just -and as demonstrated above- more deadly with potential to be pandemic. My point is we cannot hide away and repeat hugely damaging lockdowns for every new strain. But we can mitigate and take sensible steps to reduce transmission as I also mentioned (vaccination, hygiene, mask wearing). And that we ARE going to have to eventually treat this in practice like Influenza with yearly vaccine programme's + tracking and monitoring.


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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Munster still in SA
« on: November 29, 2021, 08:58:34 AM »
Going OT.

Risk of the virus spreading and the lethality of the virus should be the key issues in the decision making process.

Politicians will always want to add their two penneth.

In the Sunday Times today, there is an article regarding an IC doctor. She says that 95% of her patients are unvaccinated. That alone should send out the alarms bells. But, some citizens seem to be blinkered and do not care. It's almost as if it is a badge of honour to some of them, but in reality, they could be signing their own death warrants.

A new varient related to Covid was always going to garner concern and panic as the media would be guaranteed to jump on the story immediately and using titles and headlines with key words dedicated to causing alarm.

What is sad is that by throwing that out in the first instance, the key messages and counter balance is lost to the casual viewer as their anxiety is already heightened, thus the amygdala in the brain "hijacks" our emotional response...and what more anxiety causing than a pandemic!

I would counter this concern with regards to the Omicron variant. The name personalizes it, however this was always going to happen as this is how viruses behave. It happens all the time in nature as they want to survive and thrive. Yes they can mutate to something more serious, however they also mutate to become more infective and less severe, as there is no point bumping off your hosts as they will also be eradicated as well.

We also have this every season with Influenza. Flu variants emerge at a speedier ratio of 2:1 when compared with Coronavirus. And every year we track the most likely strain to be dominant in society and vaccinate for it. Some years are worse than others in regards to illness and mortality (kicking the bucket), others are much less severe. We never splash this all over the media and giving it names to personalize it, nor do we suddenly shut society down due to this, and we should not for covid, because as sure as night follows day, we will have a new dominant strain next year of both covid and influenza.

What is great is we know what covid is at a genetic sequencing level, we have genomic sequencing to track any varients, and we have pharmaceutical agencies who can adjust their vaccines to cover for the dominant strain.......just like influenza. This is not to play down the impact of this pandemic, I would never do that, as I would not the H5 N1/Spanish flu pandemic, or the Influenza epidemic of 2013 which we estimate caused 33,000 deaths at an average of 300-400 per day in the UK. But we must learn to live without fear, as to hide away, repeat hugely damaging lockdowns that affect massively both health and the economy is no way to live at all.

I will continue to practice hand washing, mask wearing & vaccine taking approaches (and improve my exercise again)...But we should all live, spend time with friends, families, and fellow rugby and Wasps supporters, and seek out the joys of life in companionship, friendship and love...otherwise we would miss out on spending time with people with GOMS like our own NWW!  ;D

Now I am off to worry about how we are going to beat Worcester this weekend!!!!

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: BB Comments on Attendances Etc
« on: November 28, 2021, 07:20:16 PM »
We really have to work hard to ensure our roots are well founded. It will happen (and I know a few on Skybluestalk will be gnashing their teeth at that thought). It is sad to hear some of our supporters having to deal with the idiot minority, who have more fingers than brain cells, abusing them in public. But if we keep working with the clubs, the schools. Providing role models and positive memories through success, whist working hard on social media, and working with Coventry Council and the local businesses to get black and gold all around the City, we can make a long successful future happen.

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Double Caterpillar!
« on: November 28, 2021, 07:16:55 PM »
I hate the caterpillar, whether the new defensive version we saw today, or the horrible one that's formed for the box kick that still blights our game.

Watching the Saracens game though just reaffirms why I LOVE our club, of course we are not without our problems, but in order for Saracens to get success they gave up the core values that make our sport -and ironically still sits on their main stand- of respect and honesty. I know Quins lost their way, but post bloodgate they apologised and worked their way back to redemption. Sarries men's team wanted to win at all costs, cheated, got caught, showed no remorse, so cannot expect forgiveness until they do. But it is their attitude, the screaming in oppositions faces...it is distasteful and embarrassing. I am not condoning McGuigan's red card..it was fully deserved, but how it came about that shows how unpalatable a team and club they have become.

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Alfie and Eddie
« on: November 27, 2021, 07:46:27 AM »
Alfie and Willis rotating together would be phenomenal and keep performance standards high. Jack, Shields, Nizzam flanking with Fifita rotating between 2nd row and flank works well. Gasks, Launchers and Stooke in the engine room...... Gaby finding regular high performances at hooker...that is the sort of team you can build a pack around

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Lee : post match comments
« on: November 27, 2021, 06:02:40 AM »
Lee is going to have to make some tough calls over coming weeks and months about who will continue the journey with us and which players will need to be thanked for their service but ultimately let go. Injuries have likely delayed departures, but in the harsh light of day we have some players who are not good enough to make the next step. Professional sport can be cruel, and they will always be Wasps, but we need to build a team that can win things, and with that we cannot be soft as the wage cap wonít allow for carrying players who canít make the journey. I think Lee and his coaches will already know this.

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: 10.
« on: November 27, 2021, 05:58:37 AM »
For me Jacob has everything to be right up there with the best 10s in the game. What frustrates me massively is that he is putting in performances like last night as Shugs describes so well. When it clicks you see the player he can be, the  problem is so far this season and most of last it has not. He has so much potential to be so much better than he is...he has now reached a point where he needs to start realising it.

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Wasps v Gloucester: Post match thoughts.
« on: November 27, 2021, 05:50:38 AM »
For me Lee Blackett is the one thing we must keep the same. For such a young coach he has a philosophy and approach I find refreshing. I hate doing comparisons from football, but I remember a certain Alex Ferguson struggling when he started out at Man Utd, however he had qualities that resonated, and look where that led. I have a gut feeling that Lee could be that successful in a rugby sense.

Last night felt like this is a loss the players need to own. You cannot fault the effort, it was the lack of control and direction that alarmed. Injuries have forced us to promote quickly loanees and signings from the championship who are needing to find their feet rapidly (indeed we may of uncovered a couple of gems that long term will become key premiership standard players for us). But players who have been around for longer such as Jacob, Porter, Booj need to start being consistently better. There are now no excuses for facilities as we have a stadium and training ground that is world class. Unfortunately not every player makes it, and Booj has had long enough to show us if he could make the next step, and the horrible truth IMHO is he canít. He hasnít lacked for for effort or opportunity, he just lacks that ability and last night was clear demonstration of such.
I do think Jacob will get there, but he needs to look very hard at himself and his performances. His kicking from hand and the tee is improving, but his ball handling needs much work, and his game management now needs to come together. If you want to be a 10 you need to show you can run the show. This is why I am frustrated with him, he has every ingredient he needs to be right up there al la Marcus Smith, he is currently not realising that potential...and I would hate to see another talent not realise what they could become, we already had to witness that with Cips who could of been so much more than he is.

This week for the whole team needs to hurt....putting on the black and gold is a privilege, and they belong to a club rich in history and heritage. Last night has to be a line in the sand, this needs to be a loss that is used to lead to success, and we need to see a performance against Worcester that dominates. Lee needs to get the whole squad, both injured and playing, the coaches, the S&C, Pudsey and the support staff all together and unite them. Rugby clubs are only successful If we all share the same vision, have the same unity and the same drive. We can get back to winning silverware, but that journey needs to start now.

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Wasps v Gloucester: Post match thoughts.
« on: November 26, 2021, 10:56:02 PM »
Booj is a good squad man, but he was awful tonight in everything he did. It pains me to say it but we will not win anything with him in the centres, although he has improved over the seasons, it is not enough. Tonight required his leadership, he is a centre,  and his experience was needed to help guide Josh, but he went awol, and it ultimately cost us. We were left chasing the game from a distance and never had enough.

Jacob also made far too many errors, he is still too much good, great, poor and befuddling. He HAS to start becoming more consistently high performing. He has the talent and ability, he needs to start putting it all together now, that is his greatest challenge, and where his career trajectory will be decided.

I disagree with comments on Booj. I slated him in his first 2 seasons, but the last couple he's been quietly very reliable. Obviously not as good as Mills + Fekitoa, but still really good. One bad performance isn't indicative of his current ability.

Whereas with Jacob, he's been like this ever since his breakthrough season. I know  there are theories that it's Eddie's/England's fault, but think he's the spiritual successor to Cips in every aspect. Dude is a coin toss in everything he does lately and it's really bad. I hope he grows out of it as he is still young, but Marcus Smith he ain't. Jury still out on Atkinson as well...

The thing with Booj is that although I agree with you that he has improved, it is not enough. You can see in fast games that his mind is half a step behind what is going on. To often he takes contact when he should pass, and conversely tries to force a pass when he should take contact. His defence is also questionable. Tonight he was horribly exposed, It was the centre paring that ultimately cost us the game as so much went through his and Joshís channel. Booj has been with us long enough now to be senior enough to be supporting and leading younger players and those playing out of position. He should now be able to lead rather than be led. And with his experience he should of stepped up tonight to organise and lead the defensive line and support Josh and Jacob...He failed on all counts and his game fell apart.

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Wasps v Gloucester: Post match thoughts.
« on: November 26, 2021, 10:46:42 PM »
Sometimes though a victory such as that can paper over cracks and turn the attention away from fixing a deeper problem. You can sometimes learn more from defeat than in victory.

Injuries are still a blight on our season, but it is our lack of control that concerns me. Throughout tonight can anyone truly say they felt comfortable watching us go through the phases? The passes were regularly awkward or unsympathetic, our ruck control was shaky. You could see that through the way the players ran laterally with ball in hand and in support that there was little communication or understanding between one another. It looked awkward, it felt awkward and it was awkward, and that is why moves broke down, we were turned over or knocked on so often.

For the life of me I could not really see what we were trying to achieve tonight, what the game plan or our style was, Iím not sure the players really knew as well. Cohesion, communication and understanding is so important in our sport, and we cannot achieve anything until every player in the entire squad has that.

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Wasps v Gloucester: Post match thoughts.
« on: November 26, 2021, 09:49:41 PM »
Right result

Lacking control when it mattered

Midfield selection did not work.

Well we looked full of energy, nearly undeservedly stole the game, and it was great to see Alfie back. But that is where the positives end tonight. But our near last minute turnaround should not hide how inaccurate and disorganised we were for a large majority of the game. Yes we had a 9 on the wing and a wing at 13, but the midfield of Josh and Booj did not work, and so much went through those channels that we lost metres, position and points. Booj is a good squad man, but he was awful tonight in everything he did. It pains me to say it but we will not win anything with him in the centres, although he has improved over the seasons, it is not enough. Tonight required his leadership, he is a centre,  and his experience was needed to help guide Josh, but he went awol, and it ultimately cost us. We were left chasing the game from a distance and never had enough.

Jacob also made far too many errors, he is still too much good, great, poor and befuddling. He HAS to start becoming more consistently high performing. He has the talent and ability, he needs to start putting it all together now, that is his greatest challenge, and where his career trajectory will be decided.

As a collective as well we seem to be missing that leadership and control, that certain TCUP skill that top teams have when in the middle of battle. As the game became more unstructured we became more chaotic, our defence was poor tonight, and -maul aside- we struggled too much in the scrum.

We need to be better than this, and we now need to hang on until more players return. 

Chris

Once a Wasp ALWAYS a Wasp.

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Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Covid SA
« on: November 26, 2021, 10:02:10 AM »
Going to have a huge impact on their league.

Although people naturally worry, the Virus is doing exactly what viruses do. Too many unanswered questions on infectivity and severity. However in the positives, with the genomic sequencing we can track mutations, and they happen all the time! Influenza mutates twice as quickly as Covid. Also we can adjust our vaccines to match what we think the most predominant strain will be in only a matter of weeks. We do this with Flu by tracking the most predominant and infectious strain and vaccinating to cover that.

I always thought that Covid19 would be the 5th coronavirus we have, with seasonal variation and it looks like it is behaving like its siblings. Potentially this strain could blow itself out, or be more infectious but less severe (Viruses inherently want to survive). We will learn to live with it as we do Influenza.

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