Premiership Season

[Hymenoptera]

Not much rugby news going on so am chucking a look ahead up to see what people are thinking for the Prem Season proper.

Recruitment has been strong in a couple of teams, notably Quins and Sale, with the latter bringing in half of SA. I suspect both will do pretty well this year, it wouldn't surprise me if both were top 4, especially given they lose virtually no one to RWC nor 6 nations, where other teams will be crippled by the rest protocols.
Which leads me onto the top 2, I do wonder whether this is the season that a new champion surfaces. Exeter don't have the depth that Sarries do and Sarries will lose the core of their team for the majority of the season. I can see one of Glaws, Sale or Quins taking either the top or second spot..or even both.
So thats top 5 sorted, with the middle pack of Bristol, Wasps, Bath, Tigers and Saints fighting it out closely. Bristol will improve, as will Saints, Tigers will have improved but might not kick on until they get their full compliment back. For me Bath, Wasps and Bristol could be in a fighting group, with Tigers, Worc and Irish having their own battle and Saints picking up the 6th spot, maybe battling with the end of the main group. That said, Irish have a stella paper team and Worc are no mugs on their day and won't be affected by internationals either, both could surprise.

Thats my thoughts on how the season looks to me..anyone disagree?

[BG]

Sarries will win again.. I think Exeter are in a transition period. A lot of the core squad have either retired or moved on.. the signing of Hogg  was a massive shift away from what they normally sign.. they normally sign players who haven't quite hit the mark at other clubs..

As to the the rest of us.. the rest of us have to adhere to the salary cap rules..

[Shugs]

I think everyone is still some way short of Saracens. Even in a World Cup year which can make things odd they are a distance clear. How they have the depth is a different argument not for here. After that for me it's much of a muchness. Exeter must dip soon and I don't buy the Sale argument this year. They don't win away much and they've signed "names" but for me are weak in too many pivotal positions. Bath will win some lose some as will Northampton. Gloucester are an interesting case but I think they may have peaked last year. Who knows with Tigers but they have a long way to go and I can't see they've strengthened. I think they'll be mid table with Quins. Wuss, Bristol and Irish to occupy the lower reaches. Final table for me to be something like:
Sarries
Exeter
Wasps
Gloucester
Saints
Tigers
Sale
Bath
Quins
Bristol
Wuss
Irish

[Hymenoptera]

Shugs, we disagree by some margin, funny really.

I don't buy we are top 4 let alone third.
You have Sale doing worse than last year having improved their squad beyond recognition and in an Intl year. They may be 'names' but there is a lot of them and in looking at their team for this year, I dont see any weaknesses, maybe at lock if they suffer an injury. Give me your odds on them outside the top 5, I'll put my wager down.
Same statement for Quins, 8th??

I agree that Sarries are a cut above but if in this year they can't be undone then the league may as well just wrap up.

Interesting how we supporters have the same data yet get such different results.

[Shugs]

Ha! That's what makes it fun isn't it Hymoneptera. Maybe a position or two for us has a hint of heart ruling head but I do genuinely think we can be top four. In terms of Sale the seasons are littered with teams who've made big signings and struggled year one whilst settled squads that have gelled but not caught the recruitment headlines surpass them. That's where I see Sale. I do think positions 2 to 9 are incredibly open so I certainly won't be laying odds!

[Heathen]

Shugs, we disagree by some margin, funny really.

I don't buy we are top 4 let alone third.
You have Sale doing worse than last year having improved their squad beyond recognition and in an Intl year. They may be 'names' but there is a lot of them and in looking at their team for this year, I dont see any weaknesses, maybe at lock if they suffer an injury. Give me your odds on them outside the top 5, I'll put my wager down.
Same statement for Quins, 8th??

I agree that Sarries are a cut above but if in this year they can't be undone then the league may as well just wrap up.

Interesting how we supporters have the same data yet get such different results.

If we can improve on the fragility in our play that we suffered last season, then we could make top 6. Injuries have already shown their hand. However if key players can stay injury free, we could surprise a few sides.

[mike909]

I think that for other than Sarries and Exeter and probably Glaws at the top and Irish at the bottom, the outcomes for most teams will depend upon matters only partly within their control

Form will waver with the fixture list (i.e. if you start with Sarries away and Exeter, say, you could easily be nil from two) injuries, weather, the oddities of a reffing decision or two. Get on a good run and any of Us, Quins or Tigers could beat any one, especially at home, and perhaps in the 6Ns time

The team I expect to not so much surprise, as ought to push on is Bath. Any team that might have to leave one of Roko, Joe C, Watson and Ruaridh out of their starting XV and plays with JJ and Roberts ought to be able to score tries with even 50% possession. And with a better than decent pack - it going to be about playing as a team when it matters.

Expect Glaws to push on, like what their coach has done and his attitude has rubbed off on the players, 12T looking like a (near) international again and some great play.

Can't wait - I expect us to be a little hot and cold, with it pushing towards the warmer end. I'd hope we could be fourth with a fair wind, but easily could be 7th or so if the stars don't align!

[westwaleswasp]

Chiefs
Sarries

Glaws

Bath Quins Wasps Sale Tigers Saints

Bris

Wuss
Irish

That is my best guess- with the middle teams really with little to chose.
4-8th won't have much between them, and we could be anywhere in that lot.

[BG]

That's pretty much how I see it WWW.

We have a pack that should be able to compete with most other packs (Sarries aside). Despite Velacott's injury I think we are well stocked at 9. We have a good selection at back 3.

Felitoa, JdJ, Neale and Spink seem to have 13 covered.

10 and 12 is the slight worry as that is the axis (along with 8 and 9) of any team.

I don't think we should be relying on Jimmy getting back to the form that he showed to become player of the season.

Someone is going to have to step up to the plate and fill the 12 position (unless Dai can pick up a bolter from the WC), that might be Neale or Fekitoa or possibly one of the 10's.

[Raggs]

Fekitoa and JdJ have both played 12. Maybe they'll go left and right.

[Westy68]

I believe Exeter will finish top followed by Gloucester, than sarries who will then beat Gloucester in an away semi and beat Exeter in the final. 4th place is difficult to call, for me it will be between Sale and Quins but Quins will take it.

Saints 6th, Bath 7th, between Bristol and us for 8th but i think we will take it. Tigers 10th Wuss 11th then Irish.

I am really pleased that Jack Willis is back and our back row will be fantastic, Front row also good. Apart from Joe the 2nd row really concerns me. 10 also is a massive concern, also 9 could be a problem if Dan gets injured.

I like Bassett but Sirker is a year or 2 away from being the player we need now, the rest i'm afraid don't do it for me.

12 and 13 can be good or a massive problem, if its good then we may get top 6. 15 we have 2 good players. The coaching staff not good enough and will be the main reason we don't finish top 6

[HDAWG]

Feel like people are forgetting how big the gap is between Sarries, Exeter and everybody else. Sarries and Exeter are more consistent against everybody. Gloucester, for example, have amazing games when Danny's fit, but then struggle when he's not because he's difficult to replace.

There's so much uncertainty with everybody else that spots 3 to 12 will be unknown for ages, likely until the end of the season. Just like last season.

[NellyWellyWaspy]

Feel like people are forgetting how big the gap is between Sarries, Exeter and everybody else. Sarries and Exeter are more consistent against everybody. Gloucester, for example, have amazing games when Danny's fit, but then struggle when he's not because he's difficult to replace.

There's so much uncertainty with everybody else that spots 3 to 12 will be unknown for ages, likely until the end of the season. Just like last season.

You are right. On a good day for the other teams, and a bad day for either Sarries or Exeter, any team can beat them. To a good shot at being 3rd or 4th, a team needs 3 or 4 wins from their four games with those two top teams. Failure to do that puts that team in the 'and the rest' group. Did ANY 3-12 team get three wins out of their 4 games with the top 2?

[mike909]

Feel like people are forgetting how big the gap is between Sarries, Exeter and everybody else. Sarries and Exeter are more consistent against everybody. Gloucester, for example, have amazing games when Danny's fit, but then struggle when he's not because he's difficult to replace.

There's so much uncertainty with everybody else that spots 3 to 12 will be unknown for ages, likely until the end of the season. Just like last season.

Agreed - and a good post - mine tried to say much the same in too many words!

Exeter are well stocked with players and whilst we look to our centre partnerships, Exeter have 4 class centres, most teams would like to have and have Hogg now as well.

[Hymenoptera]

Feel like people are forgetting how big the gap is between Sarries, Exeter and everybody else. Sarries and Exeter are more consistent against everybody. Gloucester, for example, have amazing games when Danny's fit, but then struggle when he's not because he's difficult to replace.

There's so much uncertainty with everybody else that spots 3 to 12 will be unknown for ages, likely until the end of the season. Just like last season.

You are right. On a good day for the other teams, and a bad day for either Sarries or Exeter, any team can beat them. To a good shot at being 3rd or 4th, a team needs 3 or 4 wins from their four games with those two top teams. Failure to do that puts that team in the 'and the rest' group. Did ANY 3-12 team get three wins out of their 4 games with the top 2?

Difference from the norm being availability. This year they will lose the majority of their first team for half a season. I know they have depth but history will show that when they have lost, it's been when the core was missing. While its a tough ask i agree, this has to be the year that others take advantage. If not now, then quite frankly, never.

I'll agree there's a chance of winning because they'll end up 3rd or 4th and will have the 1st team available but I dont think they'll end up top.