Given the withdrawal of support for furloughed staff, many entertainment venues will already have to take the decision to make those staff currently on furlough redundant. Once that happens, any recovery in that industry moves from months to decades, if ever. Most of those businesses will enter administration and, ultimately, go bust. Many will never reopen. They have no cash piles to contribute to the furlough scheme.
Many pubs and restaurants that have just reopened will realise that the reduced numbers they are allowed to cater to make those businesses uneconomic. I would be surprised if more than 10% of entertainment businesses survive to the end of this year. Sadly, that will see millions on the unemployment list. Having been there myself more than once, I know how hard that will be. Homelessness and poverty will soar. Banks will be facing massive levels of bad debt, compounded by the very much higher levels of rented property we now have, often financed and leveraged through mortgages. And so a property crash is on its way. In turn, that will take down a lot of construction companies, and so on. The crash of the 1920s will seem trivial.
These are truths no-one wants to recognise. I don't want it to be so. It will be horrible.
What can the government do? Not a lot. For as long as any form of lockdown exists, whether enforced (as it currently is) or voluntary (how many of you have actually gone to a pub this last weekend, ie voluntarily self isolated?). This virus has not gone away, and maybe never will. This is the new normal. Our society is predicated on capitalism, and that requires that the masses are gainfully employed and are spending. We have been cushioned by the vast sums of money spent by the government, but that gravy train is coming off the rails.
We face unprecedented times ahead, but no-one wants to talk about it, least of all politicians or 'the media'.
To an extent, you can see why Bolsonaro has not shut the economy down in Brazil. Yes, it has overloaded their health service, yes a LOT of people have died, but I suspect we cannot avoid that here either, albeit delayed somewhat compared to Brazil.
If we want our society to be as it was, then we have to accept the increased death levels and costs on our health service. Is their an equation? No. I heard a big debate on the radio this weekend on just that. At some point, someone has to be brave enough to say, it is what it is. Nothing we do will stop that. It just becomes another risk associated with living our lives, like cancer, accidents, etc.
But, it will take us, 'we, the people', a long time to realise this, because we are grasping at straws for a rescue plan. Vaccinations, more lockdown ... they won't stop this virus family. Pandora's box has been opened.
I would hope our politicians would just be truthful and say, 'this is how it is'.
Topic: Should we be worried by this? (Read 2781 times)
Always a Wasp