OT : The New Normal

[Heathen]

I am a member of the Patient/Practice Group for my local Medical Centre. We had a Teams meeting earlier today and the major discussion focused on how we can best prepare the Medical Centre, for what will become/is becoming the 'New Normal' i.e living in a world where the C19 threat will be around a considerable period of time - measured in year(s) not months.

Clearly this will effect every aspect of our daily lives.

More specifically for this site, what does it mean for our beloved game at professional level? For the game to survive at this level, it needs supporters attending matches. It needs revenue streams in addition to ticket sales. With the wearing of masks probably being mandatory, in close proxity environments, how will this impact on the sale of drink and food on match days? IMHO, we are somewhat fortunate that the Ricoh does have space to manage the flow of spectators, into and out of the stadium, and to create pods for family groups or friends to partake of their favourite tipple.

It is very clear that the Goverment cannot afford to have the country paralysed again, so I do not foresee the massive lockdown of businesses happening again.

A lot of food for thought!

[NellyWellyWaspy]

Hi John. Hope you and family are doing well.

I suspect that it will be with us either forever or for decades, but I wonder if the death rate will fall substantially. My feeling is that researchers will discover what truly makes an individual more likely to die, and not these very vague labels of age, ethnicity, health, diabetes, etc. I think that we will find that those most likely to die have disproportionately already done so. Also, researchers will find far more effective treatments for those with the disease, thus also reducing the risk of death.

One thing is for certain, IF we want life to return to 'normal', the social distancing and face masks cannot become the norm.

I think we have to plan for a vaccine to be generally ineffective from year to year, just as the flu vaccine is.

Very sad times.

I also suspect that this thing was around in China a LOT longer than anyone in authority cares to admit. As early as a year before? Quite possibly. How early did it arrive in the UK? Maybe as early as a year ago. Nothing else could explain why it was so widespread so quickly.

I still don't have my sense of taste and smell back since I lost it around Christmas/New Year last year. I can still tatse some things. Hot chilli is very mild, for example. But, as I found out the other day, I can't smell when milk is off. Curiously I became very ill (finding it hard to breath, couldn't sleep, high temperature) in late December, which of course culminated in my heart attack. The consultant said to me that, other than my weight, he could see no reason why that artery had blocked. Just one of those things, he said. And, when they scanned my heart afterwards, it was performing surprisingly poorly, and had a lot more damage than they had expected.

I wonder, has anybody gone back and tested the bloods of heart patients since last summer, if they keep the blood? Though I don't suppose they do keep the blood.

[Hymenoptera]

Good post Heathen and it's one that will garner many different responses. For me, I'm fairly relaxed about the new normal, I believe the 1m rule to be sufficient and with a face mask, more for the protection and comfort of those around me, I'd be more than comfortable entering a ground such as the Ricoh, queuing for a burger and a pint, being aware and hoping those around me were as aware. Your as likely to get it anywhere you go as you are by going to a game. Act responsibly and you should be fine. Risk is every where, sure you mitigate that by staying indoors but I'm happy to assume some to get semi life back knowing I can catch it at Tesco. Others will feel differently and that's understandable but hopefully enough people want to get on with the new normal to maintain these great clubs.
If it were me, i'd just get on with it but as my actions affect others, i'd act accordingly.

[backdoc]

I think that social behaviour will make very little difference.

I caught it from my wife, having segregated our house/bathrooms etc and both of us are surgically trained so understand aseptic technique better than all the bloody microbiologists and public health doctors [airborne transmission looks to be more important then any other mode].

Trying to avoid the virus will just prolong the agony. Unless you want to go to Tierra del Fuego.

Better to accept this year as a one off hit, and from now on, bad luck if it affects you but try and run things as per normal, with only minor contingencies - better hand-washing, masks if you want them etc.

Catastrophising about how the virus will change, antibodies won't help etc - ignore all this.

[DGP Wasp]

 Curiously I became very ill (finding it hard to breath, couldn't sleep, high temperature) in late December, which of course culminated in my heart attack. The consultant said to me that, other than my weight, he could see no reason why that artery had blocked. Just one of those things, he said. And, when they scanned my heart afterwards, it was performing surprisingly poorly, and had a lot more damage than they had expected.

I wonder, has anybody gone back and tested the bloods of heart patients since last summer, if they keep the blood? Though I don't suppose they do keep the blood.

A friend works as a physiotherapist for the NHS, specifically with recovering stroke patients. There appears to be a significant increased risk of blood clots leading to heart attack and stroke among patients who have had Covid.

[Hymenoptera]

I think that social behaviour will make very little difference.

Not sure I understand this...social behaviour is the only thing that will stop me either getting it or passing it.
Compare contrasting behavior between Europe with the US for example.

[Raggs]

Studies suggest that only about 5-8% of the UK have actually caught this. Similar to the levels found in other badly hit countries.

The idea that it just needs to go through the population is unfortunately just dangerous. The risks associated, even with seemingly minor cases (blood clots) are growing constantly.

If a vaccine cannot offer reasonably long term protection, along with boosters, then masks or distancing will quite possibly become the norm.

Studies have also shown that antibody levels to this drop significantly after about 3 months from infection, with more and more anecdotal evidence from doctors reporting patients getting infected for a 2nd time (with negative tests inbetween, recovered health etc).

If we return to the old norm, it's going to be an old norm with a lot more corpses. If the vaccine isn't effective, and better treatments still haven't been found, then things have to change.

It is airborne in droplets, now with more evidence that it can survive in aerosol form (so permanently in the air, rather than fine droplets that can float for hours). Getting it from someone you live with, even if you try and avoid the other, is still going to be more likely that getting it from someone wearing a mask in a supermarket that you only have a brief time near to.

I suspect China are hiding the numbers, but I don't believe this has been around for too much longer than the current science seems to suggest (November I believe).

[Heathen]

Raggs,

This is very much what my GP said in a 1 to 1 conversation that we had before the Teams meeting.

(I must admit that I am happy that I take Apixaban!)

[RogerE]

Back in the late 19870s-early 1980s I worked with the late David Tyrrell on a virus he had isolated and named in the 1960s. At the time it was an innocuous virus associated with the Common Cold.

We did a lot of work on immunity to it, and came to the conclusion that antibody responses were weak, and short lived.

When the SARS‑CoV‑2 variant reared its head, and like the above I am convinced it has been around a lot longer than official estimates, I was worried that we would be "stuck with it" for, at least, a generation. In spite of all the daily announcements about vaccine development I still remain skeptical that a vaccine capable of producing long-term immunity will become available.

Research is showing that it is mutating, so my view is that, at best, short-term annual vaccines, like the flu-vaccine, will become the norm.

[Raggs]

What evidence do you have that it's been around much longer? And what explanation that it wasn't killing and hospitalising thousands beforehand?

[Neils]

So without there being anything medical in my training bar health and safety I surmise that what this will become is another mutating version of the common cold but deadlier. Billions spent on inoculation research to come up with very little except possibly short term improvements. We as a species will just have to get on with it as best we can. Even my doctor can't yet say what this year's flu jab will be. The "new norm" will evolve over months and years to be something we accept (or don't sadly).

[Raggs]

So without there being anything medical in my training bar health and safety I surmise that what this will become is another mutating version of the common cold but deadlier. Billions spent on inoculation research to come up with very little except possibly short term improvements. We as a species will just have to get on with it as best we can. Even my doctor can't yet say what this year's flu jab will be. The "new norm" will evolve over months and years to be something we accept (or don't sadly).

The reason there was never a vaccine for the common cold is because it's simply not nasty enough to warrant one.

SARS had vaccine work, but as it has disappeared, no one really cares any more.

MERS is still around and dangerous, and the reason the Oxford vaccine is so advanced, is that it's based on the MERS one, which means they could skip a few steps in testing.

There are working vaccines against coronaviruses in cattle I believe (think it's cattle), so it has been done.

"Flu" is now many strains, including the old swine flu, so the flu vaccine is actually a vaccine against a few strains that scientists believe have the most potential to spread widely (maybe based on current number of that strain, or r0 etc). They don't know what the flu vaccine will be, because it's worked out and manufactured as late as possible to get the best info.

We have to hope that the vaccines are effective. They often offer longer term protection than infections do, so hopefully that will be the case here. I think the Oxford study last reported around 40% protection for those vaccinated, so at least one booster not long after is almost certainly required. Though I don't think they know what exactly it's effect would be (or at least it's not yet published that I've heard).

I'm fairly hopeful a vaccine will work, even if the oxford one is used first, then another one is shown to have more success. Maybe even a combination, to target various parts of the virus, giving a more complete immune response.

It may require a worldwide response, like smallpox, to attempt to eradicate the virus.

[matelot22]

I certainly hope you're right Raggs.

I can't believe how blase people have become about the situation. My friends were bombarding me with abusive messages all day last Saturday as I still won't go to the pub. They can't see that it's not so much sitting with them that bothers me, but people letting their hygiene standards slip (assuming they have any in the first place) once they've had a pint or two. I will see how the R rate changes over the next few weeks before I venture into a pub again.

[Raggs]

I wouldn't go to the pub with mates. Would be OK with having a meal with family in a beer garden.

Control what you can.

[DGP Wasp]

I'm steering clear of large, busy pubs, preferring to stick to those in my village.  It's not just the risk of falling ill myself, but I've no real desire to spend a further 2 weeks back in complete lockdown if I am contacted by track and trace having briefly shared the same beer garden as someone who goes on to test positive.