Latest Govt Statement and impact on professional rugby

[Heathen]

With the prospect of no fans attending matches for potentially the next 6 months, is professional rugby staring at the abyss in the UK?

In particular Wasps, with the bond repayment due in 2022, no income from matches and no revenue from the more profitable activities at the Ricoh.

I guess that Derek has contingencies but, he does not have the bottomless pockets that some owners have.

2012 was grim (and I don't think we realised how grim) until the full details emerged, that we were less than one minute from oblivion.

From this morning's Times :

Rugby union

The situation has got so bleak for the RFU that it has had to ask for financial support. It revised its financial forecast yesterday and is braced for losses of £60 million this year. The RFU has made 140 staff redundant and cut funding to all areas.

In the Premiership, all but Exeter Chiefs made a loss last year — but they are losing £1 million per month without fans or use of their conference facilities. Funding from the RFU is set to go down by 60 per cent. Chairmen have warned clubs could go bust.

[petros]

Outside of Premiership football what sport has much of a revenue stream without gates? But of course Premiership football is whining about lost revenues

[Peej]

Rowe was on 5 Live this morning, and it does sound dire and precarious for all the clubs in the Championship and Premiership. One would hope some CVC money might plug the gaps in the short term, but even if we get through this there are some lean years ahead as we recover.

[Neils]

Don't know where the figures came from but a thread on RiL suggests RFU funding to the Championship will drop from £640k to £40k. If that figure is anywhere near the truth then there are Championship clubs in very deep trouble. Also no league start until January at the earliest more probably March must threaten the league.
Also read this morning that many clubs have players on furlough which of course ends shortly.

[Hymenoptera]

Would help if the UK took a more 'learn to live with it approach', much like France, US etc... They locked down once, it worked, they patted themselves on the back and several weeks later they are back at ground zero. They must realize that this is not going away and adjustments in life need to be made not blanket rulings, otherwise these clubs and businesses will disappear and in 6 months having patted themselves on the back again they'll be a ground zero.

I'm currently living in the US and for all its problems, its decided that restrictions don't work and people will be people and we need to accept where we are. This weekend my local college football season starts with a reduced gate of 24k, acknowledging that ruin follows no income yet the virus situation won't change. We also just started the college year, with 50k students! Having done very little the US count is still stable..

I'm seriously worried now, Wasps business model is the anti of our current situation.

[Neils]

Very stark commentary by Robert Kitson -
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2020/sep/23/from-top-to-bottom-rugby-union-is-now-staring-into-the-abyss

[13thWarrior]

Would help if the UK took a more 'learn to live with it approach', much like France, US etc... They locked down once, it worked, they patted themselves on the back and several weeks later they are back at ground zero. They must realize that this is not going away and adjustments in life need to be made not blanket rulings, otherwise these clubs and businesses will disappear and in 6 months having patted themselves on the back again they'll be a ground zero.

I'm currently living in the US and for all its problems, its decided that restrictions don't work and people will be people and we need to accept where we are. This weekend my local college football season starts with a reduced gate of 24k, acknowledging that ruin follows no income yet the virus situation won't change. We also just started the college year, with 50k students! Having done very little the US count is still stable..

I'm seriously worried now, Wasps business model is the anti of our current situation.

The US approach is madness and I am glad we aren't following it.

[Raggs]

Would help if the UK took a more 'learn to live with it approach', much like France, US etc... They locked down once, it worked, they patted themselves on the back and several weeks later they are back at ground zero. They must realize that this is not going away and adjustments in life need to be made not blanket rulings, otherwise these clubs and businesses will disappear and in 6 months having patted themselves on the back again they'll be a ground zero.

I'm currently living in the US and for all its problems, its decided that restrictions don't work and people will be people and we need to accept where we are. This weekend my local college football season starts with a reduced gate of 24k, acknowledging that ruin follows no income yet the virus situation won't change. We also just started the college year, with 50k students! Having done very little the US count is still stable..

I'm seriously worried now, Wasps business model is the anti of our current situation.

The US model has them with basically the highest death rate in the western world, and still steadily climbing.

[DGP Wasp]

Would help if the UK took a more 'learn to live with it approach', much like France, US etc... They locked down once, it worked, they patted themselves on the back and several weeks later they are back at ground zero. They must realize that this is not going away and adjustments in life need to be made not blanket rulings, otherwise these clubs and businesses will disappear and in 6 months having patted themselves on the back again they'll be a ground zero.

I'm currently living in the US and for all its problems, its decided that restrictions don't work and people will be people and we need to accept where we are. This weekend my local college football season starts with a reduced gate of 24k, acknowledging that ruin follows no income yet the virus situation won't change. We also just started the college year, with 50k students! Having done very little the US count is still stable..

I'm seriously worried now, Wasps business model is the anti of our current situation.

I think we are going to have to learn to live with this.  We can't put our lives and our livelihoods on hold indefinitely.

Some of the rhetoric from the government this week has been alarmist and is not borne out by their own figures.  50K cases a day by October was what we were told if we continue to double every 7 days, but we are NOT currently doubling every 7 days, more like every 18-19 days, but inevitably this is the headline that all the media outlets lapped up.  And we are being taken for fools if we are expected to believe that significantly increased testing is not a major factor in an increase in confirmed cases.  Testing is currently at more than 10 times the level it was in April yet we are still finding fewer cases than at the spring peak.  Estimates put the true peak daily figure from April in excess of 100K, had sufficent testing been in place at the time to detect more of them.  The familiar curve we keep being show with current levels approaching those of early April fails to make any adjustment for this.  If this was factored in then the curve for cases would be far more closely aligned with that for hospital cases and deaths, and far less cause for alarm.  Data by region still shows that urban areas of Northern England, the Midlands and Wales account for a significant proportion of the increase, while much of the South remains stable or even in decline, yet these measures are now being rolled out nationwide.   I fear that when we reflect on this period in years to come we may see that the long term impact on social and economic well being, education and health will far outweigh any short term health benefits we may see in the coming months.

[Raggs]

Would help if the UK took a more 'learn to live with it approach', much like France, US etc... They locked down once, it worked, they patted themselves on the back and several weeks later they are back at ground zero. They must realize that this is not going away and adjustments in life need to be made not blanket rulings, otherwise these clubs and businesses will disappear and in 6 months having patted themselves on the back again they'll be a ground zero.

I'm currently living in the US and for all its problems, its decided that restrictions don't work and people will be people and we need to accept where we are. This weekend my local college football season starts with a reduced gate of 24k, acknowledging that ruin follows no income yet the virus situation won't change. We also just started the college year, with 50k students! Having done very little the US count is still stable..

I'm seriously worried now, Wasps business model is the anti of our current situation.

I think we are going to have to learn to live with this.  We can't put our lives and our livelihoods on hold indefinitely.

Some of the rhetoric from the government this week has been alarmist and is not borne out by their own figures.  50K cases a day by October was what we were told if we continue to double every 7 days, but we are NOT currently doubling every 7 days, more like every 18-19 days, but inevitably this is the headline that all the media outlets lapped up.  And we are being taken for fools if we are expected to believe that significantly increased testing is not a major factor in an increase in confirmed cases.  Testing is currently at more than 10 times the level it was in April yet we are still finding fewer cases than at the spring peak.  Estimates put the true peak daily figure from April in excess of 100K, had sufficent testing been in place at the time to detect more of them.  The familiar curve we keep being show with current levels approaching those of early April fails to make any adjustment for this.  If this was factored in then the curve for cases would be far more closely aligned with that for hospital cases and deaths, and far less cause for alarm.  Data by region still shows that urban areas of Northern England, the Midlands and Wales account for a significant proportion of the increase, while much of the South remains stable or even in decline, yet these measures are now being rolled out nationwide.   I fear that when we reflect on this period in years to come we may see that the long term impact on social and economic well being, education and health will far outweigh any short term health benefits we may see in the coming months.

If only 10% (and that's a very high estimate) of the population have had this, just living with it, likely means another 100k+ dead before we get close to herd immunity. On top of that, it means an enormous number of long term sufferers. This is nasty. Embolisms, blood clots, long term neurological issues, athletes with heart damage.

Even "mild" cases can come with some really serious longer term effects.

[BG]

"Even "mild" cases can come with some really serious longer term effects."

How do you know that? I'm not sure an 8 month pandemic (welll 3 months at most)  could ever lead to a possible conclusion on long term effects.

Do you know something the rest of us don't ?

[Raggs]

"Even "mild" cases can come with some really serious longer term effects."

How do you know that? I'm not sure an 8 month pandemic (welll 3 months at most)  could ever lead to a possible conclusion on long term effects.

Do you know something the rest of us don't ?

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/long-term-impact-of-mild-covid-19_uk_5f0710f0c5b6480493cc5658?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIz83yHtglYIuFfkX8eoqzAVFAWZt309TV-QWJotlxsS02OFCiyhnqU6DJ8mg5-JioBrMZDSfbqXIYtCZg7H9GnqKhwT7VpCYcejFH2ZKTxhntYpOCbG3Gbt7Jn2X1WelQggFP0afkBw3q8-lb9BPxD8-FhU4oHNIXJt8rIdEAjb

Easy enough to look up, but that article at least gives some oversight. I know of someone who had a mild covid case (sniffles etc), not long after collapsed with a pulmonary embolism, now facing a very long recovery time. Doctors strongly suspect linked to covid (in good shape etc, no other good reason).

EDIT - More mild covid leading to lung clots, and other clots, in some cases leading amputation: https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/coronavirus/news/in-some-covid-causes-clots-in-legs-leading-to-amputation/articleshow/77624245.cms

[Shugs]

Those who have made millions out of the sport and have a vested interest in it continuing need to put their hands in their pockets and safeguard it. I'm thinking primarily TV and RFU. I fear for most clubs if we don't re-open soon but equally can't see a scenario where fans are back until Spring.

[coddy]

Would help if the UK took a more 'learn to live with it approach', much like France, US etc... They locked down once, it worked, they patted themselves on the back and several weeks later they are back at ground zero. They must realize that this is not going away and adjustments in life need to be made not blanket rulings, otherwise these clubs and businesses will disappear and in 6 months having patted themselves on the back again they'll be a ground zero.

I'm currently living in the US and for all its problems, its decided that restrictions don't work and people will be people and we need to accept where we are. This weekend my local college football season starts with a reduced gate of 24k, acknowledging that ruin follows no income yet the virus situation won't change. We also just started the college year, with 50k students! Having done very little the US count is still stable..

I'm seriously worried now, Wasps business model is the anti of our current situation.

The US model has them with basically the highest death rate in the western world, and still steadily climbing.

Highest death rate ANYWHERE in the world.

Using Trumps USA as a shining light of how to deal with Coronavirus is akin to advocating Hitler's methods of subduing Semites.

[Neils]

Would help if the UK took a more 'learn to live with it approach', much like France, US etc... They locked down once, it worked, they patted themselves on the back and several weeks later they are back at ground zero. They must realize that this is not going away and adjustments in life need to be made not blanket rulings, otherwise these clubs and businesses will disappear and in 6 months having patted themselves on the back again they'll be a ground zero.

I'm currently living in the US and for all its problems, its decided that restrictions don't work and people will be people and we need to accept where we are. This weekend my local college football season starts with a reduced gate of 24k, acknowledging that ruin follows no income yet the virus situation won't change. We also just started the college year, with 50k students! Having done very little the US count is still stable..

I'm seriously worried now, Wasps business model is the anti of our current situation.

The US model has them with basically the highest death rate in the western world, and still steadily climbing.

Highest death rate ANYWHERE in the world.

Using Trumps USA as a shining light of how to deal with Coronavirus is akin to advocating Hitler's methods of subduing Semites.

Sorry that is uncalled for.
One is an idiot but elected the other pure evil.