Munster still in SA

[Vespula Vulgaris]

A new varient related to Covid was always going to garner concern and panic as the media would be guaranteed to jump on the story immediately and using titles and headlines with key words dedicated to causing alarm.

What is sad is that by throwing that out in the first instance, the key messages and counter balance is lost to the casual viewer as their anxiety is already heightened, thus the amygdala in the brain "hijacks" our emotional response...and what more anxiety causing than a pandemic!

I would counter this concern with regards to the Omicron variant. The name personalizes it, however this was always going to happen as this is how viruses behave. It happens all the time in nature as they want to survive and thrive. Yes they can mutate to something more serious, however they also mutate to become more infective and less severe, as there is no point bumping off your hosts as they will also be eradicated as well.

We also have this every season with Influenza. Flu variants emerge at a speedier ratio of 2:1 when compared with Coronavirus. And every year we track the most likely strain to be dominant in society and vaccinate for it. Some years are worse than others in regards to illness and mortality (kicking the bucket), others are much less severe. We never splash this all over the media and giving it names to personalize it, nor do we suddenly shut society down due to this, and we should not for covid, because as sure as night follows day, we will have a new dominant strain next year of both covid and influenza.

What is great is we know what covid is at a genetic sequencing level, we have genomic sequencing to track any varients, and we have pharmaceutical agencies who can adjust their vaccines to cover for the dominant strain.......just like influenza. This is not to play down the impact of this pandemic, I would never do that, as I would not the H5 N1/Spanish flu pandemic, or the Influenza epidemic of 2013 which we estimate caused 33,000 deaths at an average of 300-400 per day in the UK. But we must learn to live without fear, as to hide away, repeat hugely damaging lockdowns that affect massively both health and the economy is no way to live at all.

I will continue to practice hand washing, mask wearing & vaccine taking approaches (and improve my exercise again)...But we should all live, spend time with friends, families, and fellow rugby and Wasps supporters, and seek out the joys of life in companionship, friendship and love...otherwise we would miss out on spending time with people with GOMS like our own NWW! 

Now I am off to worry about how we are going to beat Worcester this weekend!!!!

This is unhelpful at best and downright misinformation at worst.

Firstly anthropomorphizing a virus is not helpful, they do not "want to survive and thrive" mutation is a fact of viruses, but to suggest that they are sentient and will avoid killing their host is about as wrong as you can possibly be. Many viruses kill their hosts at a terrifying rate, some burn out and vanish, some do not.

Secondly constantly comparing covid to seasonal influenza is deeply unhelpful. According to the WHO there have been 259,502,031 confirmed cases of Covid with 5,183,003 deaths to date.  That is a mortality rate of almost 2% since the disease appeared.  Even with all the advances in treatment and vaccination the case mortality rate for Covid is still currently estimated at 0.2%, compared with the same figure for seasonal flu of 0.01% some 20x less deadly.

If you want to check my figures they are from these sites.

https://covid19.who.int/
https://www.health.com/condition/flu/flu-vs-covid

[Wombles]

I stand by my comments, none of them are misinformation (your assertion that it is, is incorrect), I would postulate you have misinterpreted my meaning. You will also note if you read my post that I was also against personalizing viruses as well.

Viruses innately want to survive... Of course it is not a conscious decision, but the drive for survival is still there. Of course some evolve into deadlier forms...that is why I mentioned the H1 N1 strain of Influenza where there was a estimated 25-50 million deaths worldwide from that pandemic/strain alone with a estimated mortality rate of 10-20%. Annually we can see up to 650,000 influenza related deaths. Genetically speaking influenza and coronavirus are distinct entities, but I am not making comparisons there, however when we start looking a epidemiology, seasonal distribution, impact on health and disease then comparisons can be drawn. You mention mortality of influenza v covid VV, however that is based upon case fatality rate, not the devilishly harder but more accurate infectivity fatality rate. If we were able to "capture" every single case of covid infection then that fatality rate would like tumble rapidly.

Now I am not here to underplay the pandemic, quite the opposite in fact. However what cannot be ignored is that viruses/pandemics are not new...this will not be the last one as we average one every 50-100 years. We have a yearly epidemic in influenza which can be just -and as demonstrated above- more deadly with potential to be pandemic. My point is we cannot hide away and repeat hugely damaging lockdowns for every new strain. But we can mitigate and take sensible steps to reduce transmission as I also mentioned (vaccination, hygiene, mask wearing). And that we ARE going to have to eventually treat this in practice like Influenza with yearly vaccine programme's + tracking and monitoring.

[Heathen]

I stand by my comments, none of them are misinformation (your assertion that it is, is incorrect), I would postulate you have misinterpreted my meaning. You will also note if you read my post that I was also against personalizing viruses as well.

Viruses innately want to survive... Of course it is not a conscious decision, but the drive for survival is still there. Of course some evolve into deadlier forms...that is why I mentioned the H1 N1 strain of Influenza where there was a estimated 25-50 million deaths worldwide from that pandemic/strain alone with a estimated mortality rate of 10-20%. Annually we can see up to 650,000 influenza related deaths. Genetically speaking influenza and coronavirus are distinct entities, but I am not making comparisons there, however when we start looking a epidemiology, seasonal distribution, impact on health and disease then comparisons can be drawn. You mention mortality of influenza v covid VV, however that is based upon case fatality rate, not the devilishly harder but more accurate infectivity fatality rate. If we were able to "capture" every single case of covid infection then that fatality rate would like tumble rapidly.

Now I am not here to underplay the pandemic, quite the opposite in fact. However what cannot be ignored is that viruses/pandemics are not new...this will not be the last one as we average one every 50-100 years. We have a yearly epidemic in influenza which can be just -and as demonstrated above- more deadly with potential to be pandemic. My point is we cannot hide away and repeat hugely damaging lockdowns for every new strain. But we can mitigate and take sensible steps to reduce transmission as I also mentioned (vaccination, hygiene, mask wearing). And that we ARE going to have to eventually treat this in practice like Influenza with yearly vaccine programme's + tracking and monitoring.

We had a very similar discussion in our recent PPG (Patient Participation Group) Teams meeting in our Medical Centre. Consensus is that when we do the annual flu jab round(s), we will also be doing Covid jabs at the same time.

[Rossm]

My wife and I had our covid boosters and flu jabs earlier today. As she is currently bed bound, a couple of nurses from the practice came and administered the injections. As I do the shopping for both of us, I have continued from day 1 to wear a mask whenever I am out and in an enclosed space. Cannot understand why some people seem to find it such a chore. You're talking lives here - yours and your family at the very least. If I was less infirm than I am then I'm not sure that I would continue going to crowded events as I used to do. Am I living in fear - absolutely no way? Just adapting and being careful.

I enjoy watching Wasps (even on a bad day) and I want to continue watching them for as long as ..............

[NellyWellyWaspy]

I was in our local Sainsburys yesterday. I wore my mask. As I looked around, of the 50 or so shoppers I could see, only one had a mask on. Of the staff (excluding those on the tills or customer service points) I saw as I went around, only one. I spoke to one of the staff, on the cooked hot food counter (chicken, pastries, pizzas), who wasn't wearing one, I asked what he thought. He did not want to wear a mask, and would not be (as it is not compulsory for staff even under these new rules). He said he thought it was wrong to ask customers to wear masks if they didn't want to, but they had already been told to 'remind' customers as politely as they could. He said the staff got so much abuse last time around, he doubted any would be doing that. The one staff member who was wearing one, a young girl, was a friend of my daughters. She thought people were mad not to wear them (including her fellow staff members).

From this very unscientific survey, I suspect the government will struggle to get the general support of the public. Fatigue has set in.

[Heathen]

I was in our local Sainsburys yesterday. I wore my mask. As I looked around, of the 50 or so shoppers I could see, only one had a mask on. Of the staff (excluding those on the tills or customer service points) I saw as I went around, only one. I spoke to one of the staff, on the cooked hot food counter (chicken, pastries, pizzas), who wasn't wearing one, I asked what he thought. He did not want to wear a mask, and would not be (as it is not compulsory for staff even under these new rules). He said he thought it was wrong to ask customers to wear masks if they didn't want to, but they had already been told to 'remind' customers as politely as they could. He said the staff got so much abuse last time around, he doubted any would be doing that. The one staff member who was wearing one, a young girl, was a friend of my daughters. She thought people were mad not to wear them (including her fellow staff members).

From this very unscientific survey, I suspect the government will struggle to get the general support of the public. Fatigue has set in.

I went to our Tesco supermarket yesterday. Probably 50% of the customers were wearing masks and nearly all of the staff. I recently had a discussion with the store manager on this subject. He view was that it should be mandatory until the control processes have done their job.

Interesting to note that in our area, the biggest contributors to Covid numbers are schoolchildren. Spoke to a mother last week and she said that half of her daughter's class were isolating with it.

[Vespula Vulgaris]

Viruses innately want to survive... Of course it is not a conscious decision, but the drive for survival is still there.

No they don't. And no it isn't.

The idea that there is any drive, desire, want, or appetite of any sort on the part of a virus is a fundamental flaw in understanding.

You mention mortality of influenza v covid VV, however that is based upon case fatality rate, not the devilishly harder but more accurate infectivity fatality rate. If we were able to "capture" every single case of covid infection then that fatality rate would like tumble rapidly.

As long as we use the same measure each, that comparison stands. I did, and so it does. The very best case estimate of the WHO is that Covid is 20x more deadly than seasonal flu.

Now I am not here to underplay the pandemic, quite the opposite in fact. However what cannot be ignored is that viruses/pandemics are not new...

But covid is new. We are still learning about it, and so the way we act must by necessity change as we learn more, or as the virus mutates.

I will go on record now as stating that any posts about how safe Covid is, how it "wants" anything, how it is similar to flu or anything  at all covid related claiming a scientific justification without inuding the source references will be deleted from this forum.

[Bloke in North Dorset]

If I was less infirm than I am then I'm not sure that I would continue going to crowded events as I used to do. Am I living in fear - absolutely no way? Just adapting and being careful.

FWIW here's my position on masks ...

I was always sceptical about them because in the past they were never recommended for people with compromised immune systems and we were told they don't work for the general population. That instruction was reversed without explanation: either the original claim was a noble lie, very, very dangerous, or they had some new evidence they weren't sharing. In the end I think it was political theatre.

I have worked in Asia and when people there wore them it was because they were symptomatic or trying to keep smog out, nobody ever claimed they were a protection against an aerosol virus, at least to me.

Despite that I voluntarily wore one before they were mandated because it sent a signal that I understood we were in a situation that was unknown and that I took it, and still do, seriously. When it was mandated that signal got lost in the noise.

Since then we have many natural experiments with countries and states having different policies on masks, including Bavaria mandating FFP2 masks, and nobody has been able to tease any correlation out of the data to show they've had an effect.   It would be very unusual to have effect without correlating data.

Probably the best trial has been Bangladesh and the aimed to show a 10% reduction in cases. However since the data has been released even that result is being questioned.

Now that its been confirmed that the virus spreads by aerosol the efficacy of masks is further questioned. I once went in to a gas chamber with an ill fitting gas mask, never again. I would not go in to a gas chamber with a surgical or cloth mask on (even wearing good goggles). If a mask can't stop CS there's no chance against an aerosol.

But that isn't my concern about masks - that would be risk compensation.

I worry about that on 2 fronts: people going in to places with a mask on that they wouldn't go in to without one and, more selfishly, people thinking their masks somehow protects them and me and getting too close to me.

I won't go in to any situation with a mask on if I wasn't prepared to go in without one. This happened at the weekend. My wife happily donned a cloth mask to go in to our village hall for the Christmas Fair, I refused to go. No windows open, everyone cheek by jowl and the Zoe app showing that we have 4x the cases in the area than the last peak.

When asked I wear one, I've just had an hour of physio wearing one, and I will now wear one in shops, just so the staff don't have to get stressed out asking me to wear one, but I'm under no illusion that its doing me any good and it could even be be more harmful.

[Wombles]

Viruses innately want to survive... Of course it is not a conscious decision, but the drive for survival is still there.

No they don't. And no it isn't.

The idea that there is any drive, desire, want, or appetite of any sort on the part of a virus is a fundamental flaw in understanding.

You mention mortality of influenza v covid VV, however that is based upon case fatality rate, not the devilishly harder but more accurate infectivity fatality rate. If we were able to "capture" every single case of covid infection then that fatality rate would like tumble rapidly.

As long as we use the same measure each, that comparison stands. I did, and so it does. The very best case estimate of the WHO is that Covid is 20x more deadly than seasonal flu.

Now I am not here to underplay the pandemic, quite the opposite in fact. However what cannot be ignored is that viruses/pandemics are not new...

But covid is new. We are still learning about it, and so the way we act must by necessity change as we learn more, or as the virus mutates.

I will go on record now as stating that any posts about how safe Covid is, how it "wants" anything, how it is similar to flu or anything  at all covid related claiming a scientific justification without inuding the source references will be deleted from this forum.

I feel it is best to open here as once more I am not sure you are reading my posts properly. I have never stated covid is safe at any stage...indeed I have said quite the opposite. I have a background in virology as part of my under and post grad studies, and thus this is why my view -as i already stated- is that viruses can mutate to be milder and also more severe.

This discussion reminds me of the lively arguments had during lectures in medical school. VV I do not know your background, but if your education is the in the medical/science fields as mine you will already be aware that whether viruses are alive is a rather 'active' subject as it depends on how you define "life". To be fair there is no definitive answer and divides opinion to this day with many saying absolutely not...and others not so sure.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zkcvhcw

https://www.newscientist.com/question/are-viruses-alive/ (for easier reading)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5406846/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2837877/ (heavier reading)


No arguments about the fatality rate if we use the same measure.

Once more I will state that I am not arguing if Influenza and Covid are the same from a genetic viewpoint, they are distinct viruses in their own right. I am talking about symptoms, incubation, epidemiology, impact on health and society....THAT is where we can make comparisons.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-similarities-and-differences-with-influenza

Look VV I am not hear to argue (with anyone). However I think my posts are reflective of someone who respects the severity of disease, and in this case the lethality of covid and, as discussed, influenza. I believe there needs to be ongoing management on this, however I would disagree with further lockdowns given the tools in our Armory. I also believe that there needs to be balance to demonstrate how we will manage this pandemic going forward, providing reassurance whilst ensuring this virus (like so many others) deserves respect and caution.

[Neils]

I will wear one where asked to - no problem. My problem is it is supposed to be a requirement but I cannot see how it will be inforced. Last time this was a requirement I got on a tube with three BT Police and Londoners were just walking on and sitting down without masks and the police said nothing (London Mayor made it Mandatory to wear one on all LT vehicles).

I listened to a local BBC morning phone in and I feel very sorry for Shop staff and Rail Staff trying to enforce this and the inevitable abuse they will get. They said it was at times vitriolic. Also cannot see the point of only being asked to wear one in Tescos and coming out, taking it off and walking into the pub next door without.

As an aside - last week I went to a music gig in a small venue locally and was asked to show my vac. certificate. No problem and speedy.

[MarleyWasp]

I see Munster have released an update at the bottom of which is a line that reads:

"Meanwhile at the HPC in UL, Greencore Academy Manager Ian Costello and staff are overseeing the training schedule for the Academy group and returning internationals as preparations continue for Munster’s opening Champions Cup game against Wasps on Sunday, December 12."

Given Munster have apparently refused to let us register McHenry for Europe, I wonder if he may end up playing against us?

[Tervueren]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/59464498

Most of them cleared to come home

[Heathen]

David, could well happen!

[NellyWellyWaspy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/59464498

Most of them cleared to come home

I wonder how many will test positive?

[InBetweenWasp]

For a board that generally enjoys balance and reasonable exchange of views, I'm surprised by the tone of your replies VV which feel particularly hostile, bordering on rude/aggressive.

One thing the WHO/health.com's figures don't seem to break down (and I'm asking sincerely out of curiosity rather than a loaded question) is the impact of Flu jabs on the death rate of Flu.

Does anyone know if it is a simple total deaths / total cases calculation that is used, or something more nuanced?

Is the 0.001 fatality rate comparatively low because it's a less-deadly virus, or because those most likely to be vulnerable to severe illness or death from catching it are vaccinated each year against what is anticipated to be the dominant strain or is it simply that even with vaccination status taken into account I'm simply 20x less likely to die from Influenza than COVID?

The latest ONS Data released at the beginning of the month which looks at data from January to September suggests unvaccinated individuals are 32x more likely to die from COVID19 than those who are fully vaccinated (2x doses at the time of the data being captured).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021

Interested to learn more on how we've arrived at these statistics and whether COVID is more deadly because it's simply more deadly or because there's overall lower immunity and fewer treatments for it than Influenza.