Always a Wasp

Author Topic: 8th place.  (Read 2356 times)

Bloke in North Dorset

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Re: 8th place.
« Reply #15 on: April 03, 2022, 04:58:32 PM »
Irish - Quins is going our way at the moment.
It’s an entertaining game as well.

Danny Care gets yet another yellow, his 5th this year? Certainly his fourth in a row. Don't you get a citation for that sort of record?
That's what I thought. Didn't that happen to Brad earlier in the season or was that for 2 yellows in the same match?

That score line certainly helped the points difference difference.

Its all in our hands now.

Wombles

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Re: 8th place.
« Reply #16 on: April 03, 2022, 04:58:50 PM »
Although a heavy defeat for Irish they looked a threat throughout, have some heavy runners and exceptionally dangerous in the wider channels. They also left a lot of points out there through simple errors over the try line. They play a very positive style, and if we will need to slow their ruck speed down when we face them.

Bloke in North Dorset

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Re: 8th place.
« Reply #17 on: April 03, 2022, 05:01:32 PM »
They do look very good when they've got space and they run some very pretty lines but they also look fragile under pressure.

NellyWellyWaspy

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Re: 8th place.
« Reply #18 on: April 03, 2022, 05:02:33 PM »
So, a revision of my earlier numbers:

Four team are competing for 6th to 8th (3 places), ranks based on possible max points:

6. Gloucester currently 55 - max possible 80
7. Wasps currently 52 - max possible 72
8. Sale currently 56 - max possible 71
London Irish currently 53 - max possible 68

Irish now have quite a task to get in the top 8.

Bloke in North Dorset

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Re: 8th place.
« Reply #19 on: April 03, 2022, 05:43:13 PM »
If we're doing hypotheticals, and this is why I say its in our hands....

If we beat both Irish and Sale and get 4 points and take 5 off Wuss that's 13 before the Tigers game.

If we give sale 5 point wins in their outstanding games and 1 point against us that gives them 11 points.

So go in to the Tigers game it looks like:

Sale 67
Wasps 65
Irish 54

I don't think we're catching Glaws, not impossible but unlikely. They're probably going to get 4 if not 5 points for the abandoned Wuss game, then they've got Bears away and Bath at home and must be hot favourites for 5 points in each of those games. Then they play Quins away and Sarries at home and I'd expect them to get something, especially if both teams have sealed home fixtures in the play-offs. They've got to be looking at a minimum of 14 points which puts them on 69.

NellyWellyWaspy

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Re: 8th place.
« Reply #20 on: April 03, 2022, 06:11:15 PM »
If we're doing hypotheticals, and this is why I say its in our hands....

If we beat both Irish and Sale and get 4 points and take 5 off Wuss that's 13 before the Tigers game.

If we give sale 5 point wins in their outstanding games and 1 point against us that gives them 11 points.

So go in to the Tigers game it looks like:

Sale 67
Wasps 65
Irish 54

I don't think we're catching Glaws, not impossible but unlikely. They're probably going to get 4 if not 5 points for the abandoned Wuss game, then they've got Bears away and Bath at home and must be hot favourites for 5 points in each of those games. Then they play Quins away and Sarries at home and I'd expect them to get something, especially if both teams have sealed home fixtures in the play-offs. They've got to be looking at a minimum of 14 points which puts them on 69.

Not sure Gloucester can get anything from those last two games, and I think they will get 4 points for the abandoned Worcester game. So, I agree, 69 at the end of the season. I hope/expect we would be on 66 points before we play Tigers. IF we get to that point, then it truly is down to us to pull off a coup versus what the bookies would likely suggest be a comfortable (on score alone) win for Tigers.

westwaleswasp

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Re: 8th place.
« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2022, 11:21:16 PM »
Tigers might have literally nothing to play for in the last game of the year. In that scenario, would you not choose to rest those with minor niggles who might otherwise make it?

Bloke in North Dorset

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Re: 8th place.
« Reply #22 on: April 04, 2022, 05:31:36 AM »
Yes you would rest players, but then those who do play are playing for a spot in the semi-finals or even finals and so are incentivised to put a big shift in.

DGP Wasp

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Re: 8th place.
« Reply #23 on: April 04, 2022, 01:38:54 PM »
IMHO it is now between us and Irish for the last Champions cup qualifying spot for next season. Looking at the run in we see the following:

Wasps:                                     London Irish:
                                               H v Harlequins
H v Worcester                           A v Newcastle
A v Irish                                  H v Wasps
H v Sale                                   A v Bath
A v Leicester                             Season complete.

Hopefully Quins will do us a favour, but looking at the run in I think Irish have the marginally easier fixtures, yet equally we will know exactly what is needed for the last round as that is Irish's second bye week. What is clear is that the game between the 2 of us will be hugely important as the Champions cup is where we both need to be! This will be a game where we need to get as many of us Waspies to the Brentford community stadium as possible!

Think you have to chuck Sale in there too.  They only have 3 to play, including a visit to the CBS,

Wasps (52 points):                   London Irish (53):              Sale (56):
H v Worcester                           A v Newcastle                    Week off
A v Irish                                   H v Wasps                         H v Newcastle
H v Sale                                   A v Bath                            A v Wasps
A v Leicester                             Season complete.              H v Bristol

Crucially, we play both in the remaining 4 rounds, and both of them still have to sit out a round, so it is firmly in our own hands.  Wuss at home, without taking too much for granted, is a golden opportunity to ensure that by the time Sale visit we will be hot on their heels at worst.  Irish have lost a bit of form lately and have actually shipped 40+ points in each of their last 3 Prem games, so definite opportunity for a win there too.

Even if both take maximum points from their other 2 remaining games, if we get those wins plus maximum points against Wuss, then we go into the final round at least 7th, with Irish not playing.