The simple equation for Wasps is that if we get those 2 crucial wins against Irish and Sale then we will finish above them and therefore guarantee top 8 regardless of our visit to Welford Rd. That has to be the priority.
4th is the longest of long shots and we would need everything to go our way in some of those other games to sneak it. Top 4 may be beyond our reach realistically, but every place further up the table is a more favourable Champions' Cup draw next season, so worth fighting for every point.
So how many of Glaws, Saints and Chiefs we can overhaul will then determine whether we finish 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th. These are the key matches that we will need to go in our favour:
R24:
Saints to get nothing at home to Quins. Distinctly possible.
Glaws fail to win at home to Bath. Long shot, but not out of the question as Bath have improved.
(Exeter not playing)
R25:
Bristol to beat Exeter at home. Bristol's last home game of the season, so they will be up for it, and Exeter are having a wobble. Could happen.
Glaws and Saints to get nothing from their visits to Quins and Sarries respectively. Realistic.
R26:
Exeter and Glaws to get nothing from their home games against Quins and Sarries respectively. Again, possible.
Hard to see Saints getting anything less than maximum points at home to Newcastle.
Each of these outcomes is perfectly plausible, but the chances of all of them coming in are slim (which is what makes accumulator bets so attractive). If the above wish list were to come true, then the table with 1 game to play could have all 3 of Glaws, Saints and Chiefs on 62-64 points depending on BPs, with Irish also there or thereabouts if they beat Bath, Sale just behind, and Wasps sitting 4th on 67. That would certainly make for an interesting trip to WR!
First things first though. Control what we can control and beat Irish and Sale.