Rugby is, all other things being equal a bit of a lottery as to whether you win or not. What is on paper at the start of the match goes out the window the moment that whistle blows.
It would be foolish to simply say every game is a matter of chance, 50/50 as to who will win, by how much, and will it be a draw type of questions. If that were the case, then the bulk of clubs would, after a hard and long season, will be within a few points of each other. A look at the current able says that is what we have already. 3 at the top, two at the bottom, the rest much of a muchness.
Rugby game outcomes (who wins) are often down to the human factor. A mis-kick, a brain fart, a slip, a gust of wind. To not expect those to happen would be unreasonable. And, don't forget, the officials.
As the full effects of the salary cap start to bite next year (and one thing I expect is more than one club will overspend), the overseas portion of club squads will diminish, and those internationals that remain will be lesser known, cheaper, players like Jimmy. The big names will go to France or Japan. Players like Fekitoa, or Faf de Klerk will be gone. In the short term clubs will have to manage expectations of the higher earners, the jewels in their squad. We worry that players will move on, to other Premiership clubs or abroad.
I think we will start to see a trend towards clubs with bigger squads, but less stardust. Where team cohesion on the field improves, more like we would have seen with school age level teams. Where players cannot expect to play more than every other game. It won't be a case of Tom or Alfie at number 8, it will be a case of whose 'turn' is it this week?
Very few players should expect to be 'nailed on' to the team sheet every week. Yes, injuries, with their somewhat random nature, will create situations where a player does play almost every week, but that should not be the norm. As a result, squads will be pushed towards every player potentially being the same quality as the other squad members in that position.
Those players who show a tendency to injury, or who rarely step up to the first team level, will find contracts not being renewed.
In a way, the Exeter model.
So, is it wrong for any fan to expect their club to get the silverware? Yes. But, with the inevitably of randomness, each year a few teams will shine, and a few teams will do badly.
I am far from convinced it is a coaching issue, or even a player issue. It simply is what it is - a game where random events conspire to give a team a win on the day. Does anyone honestly believe that the Edinburgh game was not a prime example of that?
Rugby is a game where you should be able to rock up for a game and hope to see a good, fairly balanced contest, without the myopic vision a 'fan' of one of the teams might bring.
I think that is what we are more likely to see from next season onwards, unless something foolish happens with the salary cap (or a team cheats the cap, which I really think one or two will do).
I do think that the much larger cap in France will see European honours going mainly to French sides. But, littered as their teams now are with overseas imports, the national team will not do as well. Conversely, I think the English national game has the potential to do better, with younger players being given greater opportunities at club level. I do not expect England to actually do better, because its entire upper structure is corrupt (not necessarily monetary corruption) and not fit for purpose. That upper structure is also watching the slow decline of the sport at youth level, especially in schools. There has long been an uncomfortable tension between school teams and local clubs, but it is the local clubs (with the exception of a few notable private schools) that have won, and the schools now prefer to steer their youth towards other sports.
So, do I think we will need to, or even be able to, import more players? No, not unless the 'right' players becomes available (that their current club doesn't want them, or they want to move on).
Do I think we need to clear out the coaching staff? No. Based on results alone, the teams we field are doing OK.
Could we be better? Of course, on any day, the luck could go our way.
Do I agree with Wombles? No. I think it is time Lee stopped offering excuses. Instead, he should be saying, that was a good game of rugby to watch.
Always a Wasp
