Always a Wasp
General Category => Wasps Rugby Discussion => Topic started by: andermt on April 24, 2022, 10:56:27 PM
-
I was surprised to see how close to top 4 we were, still not sure we can get there but thought I’d take a look at the final 3 rounds, I’m sure there will be some disagreement but this is my take for fun.
Top 3 are gone, I know mathematically Sarries and Quinn can still be caught but unlikely.
So below that today we have
Saints - 63pts
———————
Exeter - 62
Glaws - 62
Irish - 58
Wasps - 57
———————
Sale - 56
The others are too far away to affect the Europe places as Bristol are 14 behind sale.
Round 24
Saints vs Quin’s - good chance saints won’t get anything.
Sale vs Falcons - 4pts for sale?
Glaws vs Bath - this should be a win for Glaws but Bath have been close on a few games recently
Tigers vs Bristol - doesn’t affect the mid table
Worcester vs Sarries - doesn’t affect the mid table
Irish vs Wasps - a must win for wasps
By the end of the weekend it could be
Glaws - 66
———————
Saints - 63
Exeter - 62
Wasps - 62
Sale - 61
———————
Irish - 58
Round 25
Bristol vs Exeter - last home game for Bristol, and with how Exeter have been playing I can see a Bristol win
Wasps vs Sale - another must win for wasps
Bath vs Irish- can’t see Bath winning but stranger things have happened
Quin’s vs Glaws - quins win
Falcons vs Tigers - doesn’t affect the mid table
Sarries vs Saints - can’t see anything other than Sarries win
By the end of the weekend it could be very congested with 5 of the 6 still in with a playoff place
Glaws - 66
———————
Wasps - 66
Saints - 63
Exeter - 62
Irish - 62
———————
Sale - 61
Final round
Exeter vs Quins - will depend on the team quins put out but can see an Exeter win
Glaws vs Sarries - as above but think Sarries
Tigers vs Wasps - can’t see wasps winning but will depend on tigers team
Saints vs Falcons - saints
Sale vs Bristol - sale
Worcester vs Bath - who cares
By the end of the weekend sticking to form
Saints - 68
———————
Glaws - 66
Wasps - 66
Exeter - 66
Sale - 65
———————
Irish - 62
A bit of fun but I think it shows how important the Irish vs Wasps game is for both teams.
Also, how easy it could be for the final table to be manipulated by teams fielding weaker sides if they have already got their home semi as both Wasps and Glaws could end up winning the last week which could get them in the top 4.
-
If we do win at Irish, and by a decent margin (more than 15 points), we would be above Chiefs.
-
I was surprised to see how close to top 4 we were, still not sure we can get there but thought I’d take a look at the final 3 rounds, I’m sure there will be some disagreement but this is my take for fun.
Top 3 are gone, I know mathematically Sarries and Quinn can still be caught but unlikely.
So below that today we have
Saints - 63pts
———————
Exeter - 62
Glaws - 62
Irish - 58
Wasps - 57
———————
Sale - 56
The others are too far away to affect the Europe places as Bristol are 14 behind sale.
Round 24
Saints vs Quin’s - good chance saints won’t get anything.
Sale vs Falcons - 4pts for sale?
Glaws vs Bath - this should be a win for Glaws but Bath have been close on a few games recently
Tigers vs Bristol - doesn’t affect the mid table
Worcester vs Sarries - doesn’t affect the mid table
Irish vs Wasps - a must win for wasps
By the end of the weekend it could be
Glaws - 66
———————
Saints - 63
Exeter - 62
Wasps - 62
Sale - 61
———————
Irish - 58
Round 25
Bristol vs Exeter - last home game for Bristol, and with how Exeter have been playing I can see a Bristol win
Wasps vs Sale - another must win for wasps
Bath vs Irish- can’t see Bath winning but stranger things have happened
Quin’s vs Glaws - quins win
Falcons vs Tigers - doesn’t affect the mid table
Sarries vs Saints - can’t see anything other than Sarries win
By the end of the weekend it could be very congested with 5 of the 6 still in with a playoff place
Glaws - 66
———————
Wasps - 66
Saints - 63
Exeter - 62
Irish - 62
———————
Sale - 61
Final round
Exeter vs Quins - will depend on the team quins put out but can see an Exeter win
Glaws vs Sarries - as above but think Sarries
Tigers vs Wasps - can’t see wasps winning but will depend on tigers team
Saints vs Falcons - saints
Sale vs Bristol - sale
Worcester vs Bath - who cares
By the end of the weekend sticking to form
Saints - 68
———————
Glaws - 66
Wasps - 66
Exeter - 66
Sale - 65
———————
Irish - 62
A bit of fun but I think it shows how important the Irish vs Wasps game is for both teams.
Also, how easy it could be for the final table to be manipulated by teams fielding weaker sides if they have already got their home semi as both Wasps and Glaws could end up winning the last week which could get them in the top 4.
Thank you this is a brilliant post, great analysis. I love seeing the twists and turns that are possible.
A few months ago, I put a bet on 🐝 to win the play offs at 100/1 so hoping I can keep that dopey dream alive a little longer 🏆
-
I think we may beat Irish, but they seem to be going pretty well and are strong at home. We never seem to cope well with Sale's power, even if they are dreadful away. And I can't see us getting anything from the last game at Welford Road.
A lot depends on next week, but I still think we'll finish 9th. Would love to be wrong!
-
Interesting analysis, thankyou!
My two pennies worth is that 6th would be a wonderful finish. Given the numbers of games left it is going all out every single fixture, and really go full bore at winning the challenge cup.
Anything is possible. But Irish at their home, Sale at the CBS, and IMHO title favourites Tigers at WR are phenomenally difficult games. Sunday is a massive game fo pr us and Irish!
-
As said all a bit of fun.
I looked at best rose tinted results for Wasps for the remaining matches, I think whoever wins this weekend between Irish & wasps will need the 4 tries to do so.
The positions show just how critical this weekends game is for both Wasps and Irish.
I also haven't added any losing bonus points, whoever loses in Irish wasps could pick up 1 or 2, similarly I think Quins will beat Saints but Saints could easily get a losing bonus.
Wasps may get a losing bonus or 2 against Tigers.
Also the Glaws vs Bath game could be an interesting one as Bath seem to be getting better, and Glaws haven't won much recently.
The final table could easily be
Saints - 70
———————
Wasps - 68
Exeter - 67
Sale - 66
Irish - 64
———————
Glaws - 63
-
Remember we beat Tigers at home. A surprise to all/most of us as we still had so many injuries. And I can remember beating a confident Leicester at Twickenham.
On the other hand, I can’t remember when we last beat them at Welford Road.
Not sure if any of this history means anything but…..
-
Don’t forget by time we play Tigers , they should have a guaranteed home semi final -and possibly been in a European final the week before ( though hopefully so have we!) They may choose to rest one or two key players?
-
Didn't Steve Staunton kick the winner the last time we won at Welford Road?
-
Jeremy Staunton
-
Didn't Steve Staunton kick the winner the last time we won at Welford Road?
There’s a blast from the roundball past
-
If we make the play offs it will be as exciting as Dave Wottle in the 800m Olympic final and even more unexpected.
-
Didn't Steve Staunton kick the winner the last time we won at Welford Road?
Jeremy kicked 23 point when we won there in September 2008. We also won there in March 2008 and September 2016.
-
The Irish and Sale games are very difficult to call, on paper I think we should win but its not being played on paper. Irish are playing tomorrow and I thing they will put out a decent team, so that may help us.
Last game of the season at home may give us a slight advantage against Sale but who knows.
Then it will be all to play against tigers who may be thinking about future games.
Personally I think I have more chance winning the lottery then Wasps winning all 3 matches, its just a shame will played so awful against a poor Bristol team
-
The simple equation for Wasps is that if we get those 2 crucial wins against Irish and Sale then we will finish above them and therefore guarantee top 8 regardless of our visit to Welford Rd. That has to be the priority.
4th is the longest of long shots and we would need everything to go our way in some of those other games to sneak it. Top 4 may be beyond our reach realistically, but every place further up the table is a more favourable Champions' Cup draw next season, so worth fighting for every point.
So how many of Glaws, Saints and Chiefs we can overhaul will then determine whether we finish 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th. These are the key matches that we will need to go in our favour:
R24:
Saints to get nothing at home to Quins. Distinctly possible.
Glaws fail to win at home to Bath. Long shot, but not out of the question as Bath have improved.
(Exeter not playing)
R25:
Bristol to beat Exeter at home. Bristol's last home game of the season, so they will be up for it, and Exeter are having a wobble. Could happen.
Glaws and Saints to get nothing from their visits to Quins and Sarries respectively. Realistic.
R26:
Exeter and Glaws to get nothing from their home games against Quins and Sarries respectively. Again, possible.
Hard to see Saints getting anything less than maximum points at home to Newcastle.
Each of these outcomes is perfectly plausible, but the chances of all of them coming in are slim (which is what makes accumulator bets so attractive). If the above wish list were to come true, then the table with 1 game to play could have all 3 of Glaws, Saints and Chiefs on 62-64 points depending on BPs, with Irish also there or thereabouts if they beat Bath, Sale just behind, and Wasps sitting 4th on 67. That would certainly make for an interesting trip to WR!
First things first though. Control what we can control and beat Irish and Sale.
-
Don’t forget by time we play Tigers , they should have a guaranteed home semi final -and possibly been in a European final the week before ( though hopefully so have we!) They may choose to rest one or two key players?
And the squad players that replace them will have a point to prove and possibly a slot on the bench to be gained.
I think we have the ability to beat them on our day, but we think it might be easier with stars out is a recipe for complacency.
-
I’d love to think we could beat Irish and Sale. But my head tells me Irish are going really well at home and Sales power game makes them a bit of a bogey side against us although we do normally turn it on under the lights. I think even if we lose at Irish we’ll pick up a point or two. As for the Tigers game no-one gets much there in terms of results or decisions. If we need anything going in to that we have a problem. I think 8th is our best scenario.
-
I think I will be very happy for us to be in 8th place so that we get into next season’s Champions Cup.
-
I’d love to think we could beat Irish and Sale. But my head tells me Irish are going really well at home.
Irish's last 2 Prem home games:
LI 14 Quins 41
LI 22 Saints 42
If that's going really well at home I'd hate to see what a dodgy spell looks like! :)
-
We have to accept that Irish are going to score tries, so our attitude has to be one of “we don’t care, we’ll score more”, as it used to be. As a minimum we need 4 tries anyway.
I have been wondering if a more defensive FB might be needed, but in the end I think we need Jacob’s play making and attacking skills more.
In a way I feel sorry for Feks because his USP as a hard hitting 13 has been somewhat negated by the new laws/interpretations of the old laws and he’s become a liability, for that reason I’d like Paulo to start at 13.
As we’ve got to at least slow their breakdown I’d have Tom at 8 and Alfie on the bench, with Brad and Jack on the flanks, Brad because of his role in the lineout.
-
Jeremy Staunton
Much obliged!
-
Before tomorrows game though I'd look at what I got wrong and right.
Round 24
Saints vs Quin’s - good chance saints won’t get anything. Ooops, got that one wrong, but it was close
Sale vs Falcons - 4pts for sale? ended up being 5 points but it's what I added in the table anyway
Glaws vs Bath - this should be a win for Glaws but Bath have been close on a few games recently Got the winner right, but wow, never saw how badly Bath would be following recent weeks
Irish vs Wasps - a must win for wasps
By the end of the weekend it could be bold confirmed
Saints - 68
———————
Glaws - 67
Exeter - 62
Wasps - 62
Sale - 61
———————
Irish - 58
Think the win against Quins has sealed the top 4 for Saints with their last match being against Falcons that should be 5 points for them. Even 3 5-pointers for Wasps can't overturn that.
-
Do we really want to finish 8th. Yes it means champions cup but guarantees being drawn against Leinster and the winners of the French league. Surely 9th and to be top seed in the challenge cup would be better. We need some success, some silverware to breed confidence not a year of being under dogs and being knocked out at the early stages.
Look at warriors. Poor all year but now have a chance of silverware in the prem cup. Must boost players confidence, fans mood puts bums on seats.
-
Do we really want to finish 8th. Yes it means champions cup but guarantees being drawn against Leinster and the winners of the French league. Surely 9th and to be top seed in the challenge cup would be better. We need some success, some silverware to breed confidence not a year of being under dogs and being knocked out at the early stages.
Look at warriors. Poor all year but now have a chance of silverware in the prem cup. Must boost players confidence, fans mood puts bums on seats.
We may win the Challenge Cup this season....
-
It's Catch 22.
We have a good squad that will certainly be strengthened by the new arrivals. Our younger players are maturing. Our pack should be as good as any in the league and will not be beaten up by anybody. Injuries have crippled us this time around. If we had had the player availablity that we have now, for most of this season, we would be top 6 for sure. There would be more 'gel' in the squad.
I look back to 02/03.
The PP did us no harm at all. Roll forward 1 year and we were at the pinnacle of Europe and were a team to be feared - the rest is history, as they say.
Win tomorrow and top 8 becomes a more realistic possibilty.
Does winning the CC produce an automatic HC spot for next year?
Whatever happens, we need a very solid preseason and hit the ground running from Day 1 in 22/23. Top 4 has to be the target.
-
So we made a mess of the end of the match so top 4 now 100% gone, so what could it mean for the top 8.
Saints - 68
———————
Glaws - 67
Exeter - 62
Sale - 61
Irish - 61
———————
Wasps - 60
Round 25
Bristol vs Exeter - last home game for Bristol, and with how Exeter have been playing I can see a Bristol win
Wasps vs Sale - another must win for wasps
Bath vs Irish- Irish on a roll, Bath abysmal.
Quin’s vs Glaws - quins win
Falcons vs Tigers - doesn’t affect the mid table
Sarries vs Saints - can’t see anything other than Sarries win
By the end of the weekend it could be
Saints - 68
———————
Glaws - 68
Wasps - 65
Irish - 65
Exeter - 62
———————
Sale - 61
Final round
Exeter vs Quins - will depend on the team quins put out but can see an Exeter win
Glaws vs Sarries - as above but think Sarries
Tigers vs Wasps - can’t see wasps winning but will depend on tigers team
Saints vs Falcons - saints
Sale vs Bristol - sale
Worcester vs Bath - who cares
By the end of the weekend sticking to form
Saints - 73
———————
Glaws - 69
Wasps - 66
Exeter - 66
Sale - 66
———————
Irish - 65
-
For me you’ve got to aim as high as you can. As soon as you start settling for second tier competitions that leaks in to the mindset and you risk not even making those.