Always a Wasp
General Category => Wasps Rugby Discussion => Topic started by: SteveTodd on November 10, 2019, 10:39:38 AM
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I'm new to following rugby, so I have no deep knowledge to help my reasoning, so I thought that any responses on this thread might educate me and give me a deeper insight.
There was a relegation market, and it was featured on the oddschecker website, but since the 35 point deduction to Saracens was announced, no bookies are advertising their odds, presumably because Saracens are appealing the points deduction, which destroys the relegation market as it won't be certain until deep into the season.
But last week the best odds were about:
11/8 London Irish
15/8 Worcester
8/1 Bristol
14/1 Wasps
14/1 Leicester
16/1 Bath
33/1 bar
I thought that the odds would reflect a very open relegation market, rather than have two clubs at very short odds. There were a couple of things that confused me:
Why were Bristol with their reasonable start to the season so low at 8/1?
Why were London Irish and Worcester so much shorter than the others?
Is it because they do not have large squads (so might suffer greater from injuries during the course of the season) and/or less returning international players from the world cup? Or are there other factors at play?
I had hoped that Saracens with a 35 point deduction might be dragged into the relegation fight, but after their away win at Gloucester, I am not as hopeful as I was originally. Any views on this?
Also if things turned bad and it ended up being Wasps, other teams have survived being relegated and returned to the premier league. is there any reason to think that Wasps could not do that? I am asking this because I read when they were in relegation trouble in the past, they were in danger of disappearing, is there anything different now to be more optimistic, if the worst actually happened?
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In terms of coaching, players, last season etc. I think these are main contenders for relegation:
- Worcester
- Leicester
- Wasps
- London Irish
- Bristol
- Bath
It's very open, and if we're not careful we'll be very much in mix. I originally thought Worcester, but they beat Quin's the other day which I didn't see coming.
Also consistency is all over the shop at the moment. As mentioned with Worcester, but look at Bath being spanked by Bristol and then beating Exeter? Who saw that coming?
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Also consistency is all over the shop at the moment. As mentioned with Worcester, but look at Bath being spanked by Bristol and then beating Exeter? Who saw that coming?
And of course we beat Bath but they beat Saints, up until yesterday, unbeaten.
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14/1 looks very attractive after four games.
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Main candidates are feasibly everyone outside of Ex, Sarries (assuming deduction gets reduced), and possibly Glaws. The rest of it is a quagmire of anyone being able to beat anyone else.
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Reply to:
Main candidates are feasibly everyone outside of Ex, Sarries (assuming deduction gets reduced), and possibly Glaws. The rest of it is a quagmire of anyone being able to beat anyone else.
Yes I can see that, so why are London Irish and Worcester much shorter odds?
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Irish and Worcester have typically been in relegation battles for a number of seasons, with Irish recently returning to the league.
That's why they're the bookies favourites for the drop.
However, no one is guaranteed to stay up. 2 seasons ago, Newcastle were top 4, the following season, not so much.
We've started very poorly and as backdoc suggests, 14/1 would be tempting... But I don't think we'll get relegated.
Most seasons, teams like Leicester, sale, wasps, bath etc will go on a winning streak and move themselves clear of the trouble.
I feel it's less likely to see that from warriors or Irish
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That makes sense, as you say nothing is guaranteed, but there is a higher expectation that the other sides will perform better than Irish and the warriors based on recent history rather than just the few matches played this season.
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The bigger question is - will there be a relegation?
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I thought that had been rejected, is it still possible that they increase to 13 teams, with one promotion into the premiership and no team relegated?
According to this link, that plan was rejected:
https://www.skysports.com/rugby-union/news/12321/11797781/gallagher-premiership-structure-unchanged-as-negotiations-cease-for-now
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It got a whole lot more possible with the points deduction.
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It got a whole lot more possible with the points deduction.
The points deduction means zilch. They will be in positive points early in the New Year. All it means is they are very unlikely to win the league. So long as their team is fully funded within the cap and no adjustment is made they will roll over every team especially if they partially abandon Europe as McCall said.
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McCall is quoted on the BBC that they are not going to unload players
So, we're expected to believe that in this season, the salary cap is enough to pay that many internationals?
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Having watched every game this weekend the best team I saw were LI. They destroyed tigers all over the pitch and with the new additions looked very handy and very powerful.
I have a hunch they wont be relegation fav's. Worc beat quins in a scrappy game, good points but the performance was only OK.
If basing off this weekends performances, I'd have to say Wasp, Tiger and Worc look in trouble.
Problem is Tigers have 6 internationals to come in and change things up...
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McCall is quoted on the BBC that they are not going to unload players
So, we're expected to believe that in this season, the salary cap is enough to pay that many internationals?
By saying they will have to offload would surely be admitting guilt? As they have stressed they have done nothing wrong, the two wont line up.
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It got a whole lot more possible with the points deduction.
The points deduction means zilch. They will be in positive points early in the New Year. All it means is they are very unlikely to win the league. So long as their team is fully funded within the cap and no adjustment is made they will roll over every team especially if they partially abandon Europe as McCall said.
Agree about them being in positive points. But I'm puzzled as to how they continue with a squad that's been found in breach of the rules. The lack of clarity on it is bizarre. They've already secured points, after the decision, with a squad the decision found against.
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It got a whole lot more possible with the points deduction.
The points deduction means zilch. They will be in positive points early in the New Year. All it means is they are very unlikely to win the league. So long as their team is fully funded within the cap and no adjustment is made they will roll over every team especially if they partially abandon Europe as McCall said.
Agree about them being in positive points. But I'm puzzled as to how they continue with a squad that's been found in breach of the rules. The lack of clarity on it is bizarre. They've already secured points, after the decision, with a squad the decision found against.
They are guilty only the last three seasons not this until June 2020 when they can be assessed again. Undoubtedly by then Wray will have worked his magic and diverted funds to some other payment vehicle for his 95,000 internationals. It is PRL and the other owners at fault for letting this continue. Nothing would have been touched if the young girl reporter from the Mail hadn't gone public.
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Of course that's technically correct but the cap hasn't moved and Sarries have signed more players. It wasn't as if they marginally went over, they breached by a considerable way. Surely we can't get into the lunacy of a cycle whereby they do nothing playing personnel wise and just get punished each year.
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Another huge result for a supposedly relegation candidate team, Bristol have just won away at Exeter after being 17:0 down.
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Of course that's technically correct but the cap hasn't moved and Sarries have signed more players. It wasn't as if they marginally went over, they breached by a considerable way. Surely we can't get into the lunacy of a cycle whereby they do nothing playing personnel wise and just get punished each year.
Of course we can! Do you actually have any faith it will change.
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Of course that's technically correct but the cap hasn't moved and Sarries have signed more players. It wasn't as if they marginally went over, they breached by a considerable way. Surely we can't get into the lunacy of a cycle whereby they do nothing playing personnel wise and just get punished each year.
Of course we can! Do you actually have any faith it will change.
Fair point!!
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The bigger question is - will there be a relegation?
I think an even bigger question is how are wasps going to refinance the bond? Issuing another corporate bond offer does not look like an option. It would have to be offering a coupon price of about 8.5%, that doesn't look sustainable. So what does that leave? Sell and lease back? Selling off assets like the hotel, which does not appear to be enough by itself, but maybe an option in conjunction with other alternatives.
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The bigger question is - will there be a relegation?
I think an even bigger question is how are wasps going to refinance the bond? Issuing another corporate bond offer does not look like an option. It would have to be offering a coupon price of about 8.5%, that doesn't look sustainable. So what does that leave? Sell and lease back? Selling off assets like the hotel, which does not appear to be enough by itself, but maybe an option in conjunction with other alternatives.
There's a thread for that already.
Wray is so egotistical he doesnt care
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The bigger question is - will there be a relegation?
I think an even bigger question is how are wasps going to refinance the bond? Issuing another corporate bond offer does not look like an option. It would have to be offering a coupon price of about 8.5%, that doesn't look sustainable. So what does that leave? Sell and lease back? Selling off assets like the hotel, which does not appear to be enough by itself, but maybe an option in conjunction with other alternatives.
New to rugby you've said?
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Presumably, in official salaries, Saracens are within the cap.
It's the additional investments that we're assuming push them over.
So, if Wray says to his players. There won't be any more investments this year, but I'll sort you out when we can.... Then they're within the cap this season with no need to offload anyone.
Job done and nothing prl or the other clubs can do about it
It sucks
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So, if Wray says to his players. There won't be any more investments this year, but I'll sort you out when we can.... Then they're within the cap this season with no need to offload anyone.
Job done and nothing prl or the other clubs can do about it
However if the investment is property then that is a tangible asset,which is enduring as long as the player is a part investor. The outcome would have to be asset is disposed of but any gains would have to be declared, or player steps out of the agreement meaning what they thought they would get is no longer available to them, or the player reduces investment amount to something that is paltry - similar to the previous point. Which ever way we look at it, the season has commenced with what I can only assume are intact investments and associated tangible assets, so there is still an issue.
When you look at Vunprop, there are some interesting filings, the Vunipola brothers own the business outright, after an initial Saffer (Wray sidekick) investment. Earlier this year they were served by a striking off notice which was later withdrawn, it appears to be related to late filings and charges. When you look at some of the filings, they own a house in South East London for example, 45 Alloa Road, which was purchased in March 2017, they took over the awfully named Vunprop in February 2017, where the value appears to have gone down, hence Nigel Wray's defensive point (not).
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10592745/filing-history
https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/45-alloa-road/london/se8-5ah/20966016
The thing is most of the information being looked for is in the public domain, so once you know where to look and have all of the pieces putting the story together is pretty simple to make a case for the misdemeanours. However as we all know the EAs are the masters of the loophole technique.
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The bigger question is - will there be a relegation?
I think an even bigger question is how are wasps going to refinance the bond? Issuing another corporate bond offer does not look like an option. It would have to be offering a coupon price of about 8.5%, that doesn't look sustainable. So what does that leave? Sell and lease back? Selling off assets like the hotel, which does not appear to be enough by itself, but maybe an option in conjunction with other alternatives.
New to rugby you've said?
Very new to rugby, but I am not new to investment.
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So, if Wray says to his players. There won't be any more investments this year, but I'll sort you out when we can.... Then they're within the cap this season with no need to offload anyone.
Job done and nothing prl or the other clubs can do about it
However if the investment is property then that is a tangible asset,which is enduring as long as the player is a part investor. The outcome would have to be asset is disposed of but any gains would have to be declared, or player steps out of the agreement meaning what they thought they would get is no longer available to them, or the player reduces investment amount to something that is paltry - similar to the previous point. Which ever way we look at it, the season has commenced with what I can only assume are intact investments and associated tangible assets, so there is still an issue.
When you look at Vunprop, there are some interesting filings, the Vunipola brothers own the business outright, after an initial Saffer (Wray sidekick) investment. Earlier this year they were served by a striking off notice which was later withdrawn, it appears to be related to late filings and charges. When you look at some of the filings, they own a house in South East London for example, 45 Alloa Road, which was purchased in March 2017, they took over the awfully named Vunprop in February 2017, where the value appears to have gone down, hence Nigel Wray's defensive point (not).
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10592745/filing-history
https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/45-alloa-road/london/se8-5ah/20966016
The thing is most of the information being looked for is in the public domain, so once you know where to look and have all of the pieces putting the story together is pretty simple to make a case for the misdemeanours. However as we all know the EAs are the masters of the loophole technique.
Officers attaches to Mako's company is
Exceed Cosec Services Ltd
And
Daniel Johannes Van Dr Heever (which sounds a bit SA)
Both of those are registered at the same address .. if you click on the latter.. hey presto.. he's registered for a lot of property managment companies
If you search Exceed Cosec Services Ltd.. A lot of the related names are all mainly (I'm guessing) Saffa type names.. and nearly all of them are registered at the same address again
Bank House, 81 St Judes Road, Englefield Green, United Kingdom, TE20 0DF
So that must be the accountants address that are running all these interlinked companies.. if you do a search for that address then you see a very non descript building.
If you look at Wigglesworth company.... guess what..
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10592734/officers (https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10592734/officers)
Its the same names and companies and addresses all linked to him as well
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And identical characteristics, the aforementioned Saffer sets it up, resigns almost immediately and hands over to an EA player. No wonder this was worked out, the fact that property is involved means there is a tangible transaction to scrutinise. I would be intrigued to see what other better qualified people make of this web of intrigue.
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I would say, to answer the OP
Wasps/Tigers/Worcester and LI would be where I would lay money.
On the latter part of the thread, some expert diggers here, well done guys.
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The common denominator has to be Cosec Exceed Services Ltd.. if you drill down the list of officers you'll find
Gert Albertus VAN RHYN
Cape Town..
He has a load of companies involving the word "Exceed" but if you look into who are linked to that... it turns a full circle.. most of who are now or was registered, are all at the same address again.
Gert is the accountant behind the web I think.. and it looks like he's still active as a director or officer of most of the companies via his various other LTD companies
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More information about Exceed here, the previously mentioned chap is no longer engaged/involved. However there does appear to be a lot of South African nationals involved in this firm? https://www.exceedca.com/who-we-are/our-people
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Back to the rugby.. having taken a look at the league table... Tigers and Wasps at the bottom.. Our positions reflect last season's performances and it appears that nothing has really changed
Both teams were poor for most of the season, leaking tries, lacking in confidence and rudderless. We had a very good unexpected victory against Exeter which pulled us away from the relegation battle.
Tigers have multiple WC players to come back (we only have Launchbury) but its questionable whether those players will make a difference.
Its a long season and we're only a few games into it and the business end is normally around Feb/March where clubs either pull away from the bottom or slowly sink.
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Launchbury is going to struggle to get into the England squad for the 6 nations so I don’t think we will miss him as much as much as a regular international player.
The pack is good, I like our first choice front row for me it drops too much with the replacements.
2nd row is good if launchburys in it. I only have a problem with Rowlands because when I look at him he is a colossus and I say hell no one is going to stop him. Too often he takes the ball standing still, when he gets in on the run he normally scores a try. I maybe expect too much from him and when he as a ok game (which is more often then not)for me I’m expecting more. Gaskell is injured a lot but I do like him. As said before the back row is a strong point. I do like the 8 and I believe he will be great in 2/3 years let’s see if he is good enough now
For me 10 in a problem, he just can’t get going. Umaga will get there but not this season I do think we should play him more as he is better then our other options. But for us to be better this season we need someone at 10 playing better. 12 and 13 is ok 9 is good real shame about vellacott. 15 I’m not sure about have to wait and see. I know people will have a go but I’m not happy with are wing options. Bassett has dropped off alarmingly, Zach is great going forward but we do look very Vulnerable in defence and set up. Watson is ok but I want better and Paolo is a 2/3rd choice player.
I believe with the league going to be so tight this season we are about 4 players of real quality short.
Poor choices made by the coaching set up as put us in this position. Personally believe we will be in the bottom 3
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We have not had a great start to season but we are not the only ones.
What worries me is that this year there is no stand out sure fire candidate to go down.
Its going to be a scrap and not sure if we are built for it.
Its going to be a nervy season until/unless we start putting a run of wins together.
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Launchbury is going to struggle to get into the England squad for the 6 nations so I don’t think we will miss him as much as much as a regular international player.
The pack is good, I like our first choice front row for me it drops too much with the replacements.
2nd row is good if launchburys in it. I only have a problem with Rowlands because when I look at him he is a colossus and I say hell no one is going to stop him. Too often he takes the ball standing still, when he gets in on the run he normally scores a try. I maybe expect too much from him and when he as a ok game (which is more often then not)for me I’m expecting more. Gaskell is injured a lot but I do like him. As said before the back row is a strong point. I do like the 8 and I believe he will be great in 2/3 years let’s see if he is good enough now
For me 10 in a problem, he just can’t get going. Umaga will get there but not this season I do think we should play him more as he is better then our other options. But for us to be better this season we need someone at 10 playing better. 12 and 13 is ok 9 is good real shame about vellacott. 15 I’m not sure about have to wait and see. I know people will have a go but I’m not happy with are wing options. Bassett has dropped off alarmingly, Zach is great going forward but we do look very Vulnerable in defence and set up. Watson is ok but I want better and Paolo is a 2/3rd choice player.
I believe with the league going to be so tight this season we are about 4 players of real quality short.
Poor choices made by the coaching set up as put us in this position. Personally believe we will be in the bottom 3
I have been very (for me) quiet over these first few games. However. I agree with Westy, in the main. Bottom 3 seems very likely. A few lucky wins could see us a little above that. What to do about it is where I profess to be of no help at all. Rugby is not about individual players, so I am not sure about picking out some players.
It just isn't working. I have no idea what on earth is going on in the coaching sessions, but based on Dai's comments after the games, there is a major disconnect between coaching & training, and the games ... and someone better get on top of it, quick. During the Sale game, I saw little evidence of true leadership, effective decision making, or flexible team working.
They were just 23 individual athletes who might just as well have met each other for the first time a couple of days ago. Not Brothers in Arms.
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I wonder if they do any Sports Psychology or similar. It seems like it is the top 2" that are missing. We have been close in a number of games, better thought processes and clearer thinking could have yielded another 5 points at least and then things would be looking a whole lot more rosy. We aren't playing well, but we aren't a million miles off the rest. A bit of leadership is needed and clearer thinking would go a long way. The latter you can train with specialist help, the former is more innate I would say, and short of Gopperth and Shields I'm not sure where it will come from.
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Hate to say it NWW but for me it is about individuals. If you have under performers its unfair to those that are performing to be in the same category.
I agree with Westy on the wing front, we have never invested in this area, we always relied on Wade. That said, whilst I wasnt sold on the Kibrige signing, I have been impressed with what he has delivered. Some question his defence, I believe the position he has been left in by the team structure is more to blame than him himself, time will tell. What I do know is he is a finisher..any weaker area's can be sorted. Marcus is a form player and doesnt work well in tight play, give him space then he's golden. Basset..sadly the decline in what he is now offering is alarming, he hasn't added anything to his game from when he broke through. I have yet to see anything from Dog to change my view on him. The stupidity he showed on Friday with an uncalled for kick in the face...less said about that the better.
Having watched every game of the first rounds I can say that whilst the table is grim, the on field play of us versus others isn't a mile away. Some games have been dire with a few stand outs. The difference is literally the individual mistakes and decision making. If they come good we will pick up wins...but when/if this happens I have no idea.
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It just isn't working. I have no idea what on earth is going on in the coaching sessions, but based on Dai's comments after the games, there is a major disconnect between coaching & training, and the games ... and someone better get on top of it, quick. During the Sale game, I saw little evidence of true leadership, effective decision making, or flexible team working.
They were just 23 individual athletes who might just as well have met each other for the first time a couple of days ago.
I suspect training has been spent working on a game plan which is rigidly adhered to during a game. If it doesn't work then we're stuffed. If game plan is changed but substituted for another rigid variety, e.g. when Sops was subbed against Sale, it is pointless if that doesn't work either.
Training has to be about recognising what's in front of you and reacting quickly to a pattern that everyone understands. I'm sure that's what Sarries do. It's fine to try to impose a game plan on the opposition but flexibility to react and change has to be key.
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If game plan is changed but substituted for another rigid variety, e.g. when Sops was subbed against Sale,
Just learnt that Lima was subbed due to his calf tightening up. More details in Gaskell injury thread.
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If game plan is changed but substituted for another rigid variety, e.g. when Sops was subbed against Sale,
Just learnt that Lima was subbed due to his calf tightening up. More details in Gaskell injury thread.
Maybe, but my point still stands. Billy came.on with a new strategy to kick everything long, presumably to play in Sale territory. It wasn't executed very well and didn't work but still persisted with none the less.