Always a Wasp
General Category => Wasps Rugby Discussion => Topic started by: Heathen on July 14, 2020, 08:14:15 PM
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I am a member of the Patient/Practice Group for my local Medical Centre. We had a Teams meeting earlier today and the major discussion focused on how we can best prepare the Medical Centre, for what will become/is becoming the 'New Normal' i.e living in a world where the C19 threat will be around a considerable period of time - measured in year(s) not months.
Clearly this will effect every aspect of our daily lives.
More specifically for this site, what does it mean for our beloved game at professional level? For the game to survive at this level, it needs supporters attending matches. It needs revenue streams in addition to ticket sales. With the wearing of masks probably being mandatory, in close proxity environments, how will this impact on the sale of drink and food on match days? IMHO, we are somewhat fortunate that the Ricoh does have space to manage the flow of spectators, into and out of the stadium, and to create pods for family groups or friends to partake of their favourite tipple.
It is very clear that the Goverment cannot afford to have the country paralysed again, so I do not foresee the massive lockdown of businesses happening again.
A lot of food for thought!
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Hi John. Hope you and family are doing well.
I suspect that it will be with us either forever or for decades, but I wonder if the death rate will fall substantially. My feeling is that researchers will discover what truly makes an individual more likely to die, and not these very vague labels of age, ethnicity, health, diabetes, etc. I think that we will find that those most likely to die have disproportionately already done so. Also, researchers will find far more effective treatments for those with the disease, thus also reducing the risk of death.
One thing is for certain, IF we want life to return to 'normal', the social distancing and face masks cannot become the norm.
I think we have to plan for a vaccine to be generally ineffective from year to year, just as the flu vaccine is.
Very sad times.
I also suspect that this thing was around in China a LOT longer than anyone in authority cares to admit. As early as a year before? Quite possibly. How early did it arrive in the UK? Maybe as early as a year ago. Nothing else could explain why it was so widespread so quickly.
I still don't have my sense of taste and smell back since I lost it around Christmas/New Year last year. I can still tatse some things. Hot chilli is very mild, for example. But, as I found out the other day, I can't smell when milk is off. Curiously I became very ill (finding it hard to breath, couldn't sleep, high temperature) in late December, which of course culminated in my heart attack. The consultant said to me that, other than my weight, he could see no reason why that artery had blocked. Just one of those things, he said. And, when they scanned my heart afterwards, it was performing surprisingly poorly, and had a lot more damage than they had expected.
I wonder, has anybody gone back and tested the bloods of heart patients since last summer, if they keep the blood? Though I don't suppose they do keep the blood.
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Good post Heathen and it's one that will garner many different responses. For me, I'm fairly relaxed about the new normal, I believe the 1m rule to be sufficient and with a face mask, more for the protection and comfort of those around me, I'd be more than comfortable entering a ground such as the Ricoh, queuing for a burger and a pint, being aware and hoping those around me were as aware. Your as likely to get it anywhere you go as you are by going to a game. Act responsibly and you should be fine. Risk is every where, sure you mitigate that by staying indoors but I'm happy to assume some to get semi life back knowing I can catch it at Tesco. Others will feel differently and that's understandable but hopefully enough people want to get on with the new normal to maintain these great clubs.
If it were me, i'd just get on with it but as my actions affect others, i'd act accordingly.
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I think that social behaviour will make very little difference.
I caught it from my wife, having segregated our house/bathrooms etc and both of us are surgically trained so understand aseptic technique better than all the bloody microbiologists and public health doctors [airborne transmission looks to be more important then any other mode].
Trying to avoid the virus will just prolong the agony. Unless you want to go to Tierra del Fuego.
Better to accept this year as a one off hit, and from now on, bad luck if it affects you but try and run things as per normal, with only minor contingencies - better hand-washing, masks if you want them etc.
Catastrophising about how the virus will change, antibodies won't help etc - ignore all this.
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Curiously I became very ill (finding it hard to breath, couldn't sleep, high temperature) in late December, which of course culminated in my heart attack. The consultant said to me that, other than my weight, he could see no reason why that artery had blocked. Just one of those things, he said. And, when they scanned my heart afterwards, it was performing surprisingly poorly, and had a lot more damage than they had expected.
I wonder, has anybody gone back and tested the bloods of heart patients since last summer, if they keep the blood? Though I don't suppose they do keep the blood.
A friend works as a physiotherapist for the NHS, specifically with recovering stroke patients. There appears to be a significant increased risk of blood clots leading to heart attack and stroke among patients who have had Covid.
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I think that social behaviour will make very little difference.
Not sure I understand this...social behaviour is the only thing that will stop me either getting it or passing it.
Compare contrasting behavior between Europe with the US for example.
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Studies suggest that only about 5-8% of the UK have actually caught this. Similar to the levels found in other badly hit countries.
The idea that it just needs to go through the population is unfortunately just dangerous. The risks associated, even with seemingly minor cases (blood clots) are growing constantly.
If a vaccine cannot offer reasonably long term protection, along with boosters, then masks or distancing will quite possibly become the norm.
Studies have also shown that antibody levels to this drop significantly after about 3 months from infection, with more and more anecdotal evidence from doctors reporting patients getting infected for a 2nd time (with negative tests inbetween, recovered health etc).
If we return to the old norm, it's going to be an old norm with a lot more corpses. If the vaccine isn't effective, and better treatments still haven't been found, then things have to change.
It is airborne in droplets, now with more evidence that it can survive in aerosol form (so permanently in the air, rather than fine droplets that can float for hours). Getting it from someone you live with, even if you try and avoid the other, is still going to be more likely that getting it from someone wearing a mask in a supermarket that you only have a brief time near to.
I suspect China are hiding the numbers, but I don't believe this has been around for too much longer than the current science seems to suggest (November I believe).
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Raggs,
This is very much what my GP said in a 1 to 1 conversation that we had before the Teams meeting.
(I must admit that I am happy that I take Apixaban!)
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Back in the late 19870s-early 1980s I worked with the late David Tyrrell on a virus he had isolated and named in the 1960s. At the time it was an innocuous virus associated with the Common Cold.
We did a lot of work on immunity to it, and came to the conclusion that antibody responses were weak, and short lived.
When the SARS‑CoV‑2 variant reared its head, and like the above I am convinced it has been around a lot longer than official estimates, I was worried that we would be "stuck with it" for, at least, a generation. In spite of all the daily announcements about vaccine development I still remain skeptical that a vaccine capable of producing long-term immunity will become available.
Research is showing that it is mutating, so my view is that, at best, short-term annual vaccines, like the flu-vaccine, will become the norm.
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What evidence do you have that it's been around much longer? And what explanation that it wasn't killing and hospitalising thousands beforehand?
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So without there being anything medical in my training bar health and safety I surmise that what this will become is another mutating version of the common cold but deadlier. Billions spent on inoculation research to come up with very little except possibly short term improvements. We as a species will just have to get on with it as best we can. Even my doctor can't yet say what this year's flu jab will be. The "new norm" will evolve over months and years to be something we accept (or don't sadly).
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So without there being anything medical in my training bar health and safety I surmise that what this will become is another mutating version of the common cold but deadlier. Billions spent on inoculation research to come up with very little except possibly short term improvements. We as a species will just have to get on with it as best we can. Even my doctor can't yet say what this year's flu jab will be. The "new norm" will evolve over months and years to be something we accept (or don't sadly).
The reason there was never a vaccine for the common cold is because it's simply not nasty enough to warrant one.
SARS had vaccine work, but as it has disappeared, no one really cares any more.
MERS is still around and dangerous, and the reason the Oxford vaccine is so advanced, is that it's based on the MERS one, which means they could skip a few steps in testing.
There are working vaccines against coronaviruses in cattle I believe (think it's cattle), so it has been done.
"Flu" is now many strains, including the old swine flu, so the flu vaccine is actually a vaccine against a few strains that scientists believe have the most potential to spread widely (maybe based on current number of that strain, or r0 etc). They don't know what the flu vaccine will be, because it's worked out and manufactured as late as possible to get the best info.
We have to hope that the vaccines are effective. They often offer longer term protection than infections do, so hopefully that will be the case here. I think the Oxford study last reported around 40% protection for those vaccinated, so at least one booster not long after is almost certainly required. Though I don't think they know what exactly it's effect would be (or at least it's not yet published that I've heard).
I'm fairly hopeful a vaccine will work, even if the oxford one is used first, then another one is shown to have more success. Maybe even a combination, to target various parts of the virus, giving a more complete immune response.
It may require a worldwide response, like smallpox, to attempt to eradicate the virus.
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I certainly hope you're right Raggs.
I can't believe how blase people have become about the situation. My friends were bombarding me with abusive messages all day last Saturday as I still won't go to the pub. They can't see that it's not so much sitting with them that bothers me, but people letting their hygiene standards slip (assuming they have any in the first place) once they've had a pint or two. I will see how the R rate changes over the next few weeks before I venture into a pub again.
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I wouldn't go to the pub with mates. Would be OK with having a meal with family in a beer garden.
Control what you can.
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I'm steering clear of large, busy pubs, preferring to stick to those in my village. It's not just the risk of falling ill myself, but I've no real desire to spend a further 2 weeks back in complete lockdown if I am contacted by track and trace having briefly shared the same beer garden as someone who goes on to test positive.
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I would be surprised if an effective vaccine is developed.
I think it much more likely that the virus attenuates as it mutates and becomes much less harmful to us.
Just my opinion.
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I would be surprised if an effective vaccine is developed.
I think it much more likely that the virus attenuates as it mutates and becomes much less harmful to us.
Just my opinion.
Why surprised?
And why attenuate? And even if a strain does mutate, that's not going to mean all the rest is going away either. To become less dangerous, we'd need it to mutate in a way that's more contagious, less deadly, and still stimulates an immune response that attacks the more deadly version.
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I would be surprised if an effective vaccine is developed.
I think it much more likely that the virus attenuates as it mutates and becomes much less harmful to us.
Just my opinion.
Define effective.
I've had a flu jab and caught the flu, its still considered an effective vaccine.
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I would be surprised if an effective vaccine is developed.
I think it much more likely that the virus attenuates as it mutates and becomes much less harmful to us.
Just my opinion.
Define effective.
I've had a flu jab and caught the flu, its still considered an effective vaccine.
Vaccines don't stop you catching something. They hopefully stop you spreading it. Or hopefully feeling it at all. But the disease can still be in you. Just dealt with quickly.
Flu vaccine is a bad example as there are many different viruses we lump in together as flu. So far covid 19 has some variety but nothing as great to prevent a single vaccine working. At least as far as we know.
The longer this goes on and the worse the cases levels, the higher the chance than a new strain arises.
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My point was less about the symantecs and more to do with what is classed as effective.
Would 50% be classed effective if coupled with social awareness, masks and improved hygiene routines. This combination strikes me as a good way to control that R number and potentially eradicate it, acknowledging variables yet unknown such as duration of vaccination etc.
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My point was less about the symantecs and more to do with what is classed as effective.
Would 50% be classed effective if coupled with social awareness, masks and improved hygiene routines. This combination strikes me as a good way to control that R number and potentially eradicate it, acknowledging variables yet unknown such as duration of vaccination etc.
Think somewhere around 60-70% is what's required for this virus. So 50% + other measures would probably manage it. If the vaccine only offers temporary protection, an effort would need to be made to do as much of the planet as possible, in as short a time as possible. Possibly stockpile for a while then blitz. And hope that the pro-plague crowd don't stop too many getting the vaccine.
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Given the most of the Luddites in the US think its a conspiracy and will refuse the vaccine it'll be a hard sell and won't benefit society looking to make a major play. What a mess.
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The rednecks think that they can shoot it!
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Personally, I wouldn't mind too much if there was a bit of a redneck cull in the US. Nasty of me I know, but they can wave their AR15s around as much as they like shouting "2nd Amendment, 2nd amendment" but covid is a difficult target.
PS. Heathen - I was just typing when you were posting ;)
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I think it's going to be one of those things where eventually the bullet just has to be bitten. Lockdown has created a false decline in the disease in order to make throughput in the NHS manageable. That was necessary. But in reality there are only two long term options. A vaccine or herd immunity. There are no certainties for a vaccine. More extensive lockdowns are not economically possible. So at some point we'll just have to go back to normal save for wearing a mask and practising better hand washing.
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NZ proved it can be eradicated, the model isn't easy to replicate. Im not sure there is such thing as herd immunity, that said I have no answers so what do I kow.
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Every time I see that advert on Wasps Twitter with a head wearing a mask I wonder why a boiled egg in an egg-cup has a Wasp tattoo on its lower half.
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NZ proved it can be eradicated, the model isn't easy to replicate. Im not sure there is such thing as herd immunity, that said I have no answers so what do I kow.
NZ is in a very different situation to much of the world, easy to close borders completely. I know they rely on tourism, but their comparative footfall is very small compared to the UK (especially when you further take into account that many people travel through the UK, even if not visiting, but could infect everyone else on the plane who do get off in the UK). They may also struggle to keep covid free for the long term, definitely took the best steps available to them at the time though, very good leadership.
Herd immunity is definitely a possibility, whether through mass infection or vaccination. In the case of this illness, vaccination definitely seems like the more sensible option.
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Given the recent report out of Spain showing only 5% of those infected had any antibodies and reinfection is proven, I dont think there is any herd immunity. Same with vaccine, you can only achieve herd if people take the vaccine and its 100% successful
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Given the recent report out of Spain showing only 5% of those infected had any antibodies and reinfection is proven, I dont think there is any herd immunity. Same with vaccine, you can only achieve herd if people take the vaccine and its 100% successful
Don't think reinfection is proven yet, though looking more likely.
However, vaccines can offer longer resistance than infection in many cases (especially vs some of these mild cases I'd imagine).
Also, you don't need 100% for herd immunity, I think that the percentage for this virus is around 60%, it's not very transmissible when compared to something like measles.
From memory the oxford vaccine was 40% effective, but it may be much more than that with a booster, even if it's just the 40% again, that reaches the 60% (though of course it won't be 100% vaccine coverage).
However, even around 20-25% should start to see a significant effect on the r0 number, so when combined with other measures, should allow us to hit this on the head.
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Given the recent report out of Spain showing only 5% of those infected had any antibodies and reinfection is proven, I dont think there is any herd immunity. Same with vaccine, you can only achieve herd if people take the vaccine and its 100% successful
Also antibodies looking like an increasingly inaccurate way of determining immunity. A fair few articles discussing a pretty quick drop-off in antibodies. Sweden has done some research that suggested immunity is 2x predicted based on antibody testing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53248660
That being said, moving from 5% to 10% immunity (In Spain's case) doesn't really change things much. Will be interesting to see what happens with NZ, they can't stay closed forever.
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There is also a second action with some vaccines in that they stimulate T-cells which are longer lasting than antibodies and less specific in their action. This offers some hope that immunity may be longer lasting than simply looking at the antibody levels. A vaccine is still some way off though. Ours has just entered accelerated Phase 2b / 3 trials. The good news is that the trial is happening in the US where there are plenty of opportunities to test the effectiveness!
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Could they start at the TTTTTT... op please?
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That was supposed to read 'Start at the Trump'. Can't think wot went wrong.
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Covfefe?
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Absolutely!! Thank you!`
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Remember, immunity is acquired not just via antibodies, as pointed out above. T cells are of equal importance. The news of antibody levels dropping after three months was taken as a serious setback, but if the vaccine produces a strong T cell response alongside the antibodies effective immunity could be acquired for a longer period of time. From what I have read, some of the vaccines in trials are producing promising T cell levels.
People often point out the lack of existing Coronavirus vaccines, but SARS died off before the vaccine research was concluded.
Given what has been thrown at it, I would be surprised if this were around years without at least a yearly vaccine.
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You could comment on the paucity of effective RNA virus vaccines - polio and measles are probably the only effective ones.
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Fair point, they are not the easiest of things to nail.
I would be interested to see a comparison of resources put into vaccines for various diseases. We certainly plumped a lot into HIV, although I doubt it will equate to what is going to be thrown and currently thrown at Covid. Covid research is a little like the space race, any nation that comes up with a working vaccine first is going to be looking at political benefits.
I have always had a cynical view that big pharma benefits more financially from developing a treatment course than a vaccine....
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You could comment on the paucity of effective RNA virus vaccines - polio and measles are probably the only effective ones.
Just checking from a list on google, so I could be very wrong.
Rabies, Influenza A + B, yellow fever, Ebola (that one's recent), hep A, mumps, etc etc.
You do tend to find that you only get a vaccine when it's an illness that effects westerners, or is particularly nasty, and doesn't have effective treatments etc.
There's coronavirus vaccines for cattle (money is important, more than poor peoples lives). Anything that can actually earn money for research companies (as research is not cheap, and fails a lot), will have people trying for a vaccine. Anything that mainly effects poor africans/indians etc, isn't, there's no profit margin.
Until Sars, there was no need for a coronavirus vaccine in humans. Sars went away quickly, so what was the point. MERS is still around, and as I've said, that's why Oxford is so much further ahead, because they've used a similar basis for covid19 as they had for Mers, meaning they could safely skip a few steps.
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"RNA viruses constitute an important threat to human health around the globe. Several RNA viruses are pandemic and infect hundreds of millions around the world leading to the death of millions of people every year. These viruses include the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), Ebola virus, Zika virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza viruses, yellow fever virus, dengue virus, rhinoviruses (common cold), human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-I), poliovirus, and measles virus. Currently, no vaccine or specific treatment is available for many of these viruses and some of the available vaccines and treatments are not highly effective. "
Journal of Immunology Research
Volume 2018 |Article ID 5473678
Review article.
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"RNA viruses constitute an important threat to human health around the globe. Several RNA viruses are pandemic and infect hundreds of millions around the world leading to the death of millions of people every year. These viruses include the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), Ebola virus, Zika virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza viruses, yellow fever virus, dengue virus, rhinoviruses (common cold), human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-I), poliovirus, and measles virus. Currently, no vaccine or specific treatment is available for many of these viruses and some of the available vaccines and treatments are not highly effective. "
Journal of Immunology Research
Volume 2018 |Article ID 5473678
Review article.
Yes. Just pointing out that it's more than just polio and measles. HIV treatment is now at a hugely advanced stage (and HIV is particularly nasty for hiding), and as pointed out, those nasty ones that do effect westerners (polio, measles etc) do get treatments/vaccines rather quickly. Ebola being a prime example. No one cared enough to pay for it until it started threatening western countries in force. Just as there are many RNA viruses without vaccines and treatments, there are many with as well. Narrowing it further, there are coronavirus vaccines for where there was money to be made from them.
Flu (rna viruses) is nasty enough on an economic front, that it's worthwhile western countries attempting to vaccinate where possible, and against the most prolific strains. Covid19, so far, is still only a single thing to be vaccinated again, making it a far simpler prospect than flu, due to the massive variety of flu viruses (many of which can be vaccinated against, but aren't, due to economics).
I don't know if the vaccines will work, but so far the studies are looking positive, especially as we have many vaccines using different techniques and targeting different parts of the virus.
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Historically much of the vaccine work was charitable - Yellow Fever for example, and the TB MRC studies were paid for by Britain to the benefit of the 'colonies/ex-colonies' in the far East and Africa.
Bill Gates is in the footsteps of Rockefella
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There really is never going to be a common cold vaccine even if one could be found for nothing. Think of all the cash spent on cold remedies.
Big problems with any potential covid vaccine include getting people to actually accept vaccination.