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Messages - SteveTodd

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1
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Hope?
« on: October 30, 2022, 01:14:33 PM »
We could really do with keeping that P Share. That'd help pay for one or two decent players.

Are the P shares not also secured against the bond? If so, presumably it means that the bond would have to be redeemed in order for for Wasps to keep their P shares?

2
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Wasps facing relegation
« on: October 12, 2022, 05:08:39 PM »

They have watched the disaster unfurl. £60M losses in 6 years. Waited until we hit the buffers and screwed the bond holders


I can fully understand your disappointment But I want to point out that the bond holders have not been screwed (I invested a significant amount in the bond). The risks were there for all to see, and it looks like there is every chance of the capital being returned with all of the contract interest paid, and also a chance of the surplus interest (after the original maturity date) being paid too. Although I did hope that Wasps would somehow turn it around, this was always the way that I thought that it would end, there just wasn't a realistic business plan being implemented. Although to be fair, it was made much worse by Covid, and if Covid had not happened, they may well have been able to refinance without administration, but they were in trouble with their finances before Covid.

3
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Wasps facing relegation
« on: September 22, 2022, 12:21:30 PM »
Not clear on the source of this, so take with a pinch of salt - But copied from the ADVFN Board discussing the Wasps Bond:

"From this morning's meeting: So, as we know, Wasps players and staff were called to a 9am meeting this morning to discuss the club's situation. We understand this lasted around 20 minutes and people were told the club was in advanced talks and things will move fast with the next step - with the overall tone being a 'hopeful' one. But there is a waiting game to be played. There was a feeling relayed that HMRC's issuing of a winding-up order came as a surprise. There's no suggestion at all that the game against Bath will not go ahead, and training is continuing as normal today before the group travels south for Friday night's game at The Rec."

I was the one who posted that on ADVNF, it was from the Coventry Telegraph: https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/sport/rugby/wasps-live-administration-latest-bath-25078505

4
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: How sustainable are we??
« on: September 06, 2022, 12:04:44 PM »
Exactly right. Which is a very good reason that any in that position will probably be willing to hang on a little longer rather than enter what could be a protracted process that yields less in the end anyway.

Not only that but all investors who bought cheaply are getting a higher interest rate while they are waiting (my current rate is almost 11%), so I've no problem with waiting.

But as I said above, I would like to see Wasps get out of this, not just in the immediate future, but also in the long run. But it looks like the business model (for the league not just Wasps) has to change somehow to make it much more sustainable. I have no idea how that would happen though, because the changes appear to need to be quite significant.

5
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: How sustainable are we??
« on: September 06, 2022, 11:38:57 AM »
If the refinance come to fruition, you will get full nominal value so you will have done pretty well in terms of roi.

I think that there are quite a few investors in the same position, and capital gains on individual bonds are tax free.

6
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: How sustainable are we??
« on: September 06, 2022, 10:42:37 AM »
I am very hopeful that I get all my investment returned, but bear in mind that I only paid an average price of just under 60p (not  the full 100p), of course it would be great to be paid the full 100 pence, and my hopes of that have increased since the last Wasps announcement, but I am trying to be realistic, at the moment I am hoping for something between 60 and 100p. I would rather prepare myself for something lower than 100p and be happy at the end, than be over optimistic and end up disappointed.

7
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: How sustainable are we??
« on: September 06, 2022, 07:32:46 AM »
You are mistaken in thinking the bondholders have organised themselves in order to be able to act. The organisers of the online groups have managed to identify the holders of just over 10% of the bonds. There is at present no agreement to act together, or even an agreement of the direction in which to act.

So in fact what has happened is that a number of bond holders have spoken to each other. Which is not quite the headline grabbing bollocks that is being spouted.

I'd be very interested to find out if the anonymous bondholder quoted actually proved his holdings, and what level they are.

You are correct, there is no agreement to act together, so far it has only been limited to simply identifying bondholders and the amount that they hold (some have not stated what their holding is), for those that have  it amounts to over 10% (we have been asked to keep the details private, so I do not want to say any more than that). The list has come about due to frustration over lack of detail in communications from Wasps.

I have not been asked to prove what my holding is yet, although I could easily do so if asked.

If Wasps provided more detail it would certainly calm things down, perhaps something as simple as a projected timescale of the refinancing process would help, but I accept that I have no experience in these matters, so I do not have a 'feel' for what Wasps are free to disclose or not during their negotiations with potential financiers. I am not as optimistic as one might anticipate after an announcement stating that an offer for refinancing has been received. I have no malice towards Wasps, when I first invested in the bond I knew very little about rugby at club level, and I still don't, but naturally after investing I took an interest in Wasps (which was why I joined this forum) and I started following their results every weekend, and began to look forward to doing so. It might be pushing it to call me a fan, but I definitely want to see Wasps come out of this unscathed.

All the communication that I have had with other bond holders has taken place on this public forum https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/wasps-22-WAS1/share-chat
So you can see for yourself what has been said, and there is also a Facebook group too (which I have not joined).

8
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: TRP
« on: September 05, 2022, 09:02:45 AM »
Most commentators predict us 10th to 8th, I look at everyone elses' backs and think they have us on paper. Up front we look good, but there are plenty of good packs out there.
We might look at someone like Bassett and say, great hard worker, would not swap him for anyone, but other clubs won't be looking at their up and coming wingers and saying 'wish we had a Bassett'. We really need to see minimal injuries at 10, 12 and 13, and already look dodgy on the first.

Sporting index have Wasps in 9th place (but it is very close between 7th and 10th place) for the regular season odds:

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/rugby-union/gallagher-premiership/group_a.3a291d8a-614f-4dce-a3e8-33519d405174/gallagher-premiership-regular-season-index-2022-23

I think spread prices are a better indication because you can bet both ways (whereas fixed odds you can only back to do well (not to do badly)).

Saracens -   38   41   
Leicester Tigers -   31   33   
Exeter Chiefs -   22   25   
Harlequins -   21   24   
Gloucester -   16   19   
Northampton Saints -   13   16   
Sale -   13   16   
Bristol -   12   15   
Wasps -   11   14   
London Irish -   10   13   
Bath -   3   5   
Newcastle Falcons -   0.1   1   
Worcester Warriors -   0   0.5

A prediction on the league standings at the end of the regular season.
Winner = 60pts, Runner-up = 40pts, Third = 30pts,
Fourth = 25pts, Fifth = 20pts,
Sixth = 15pts, Seventh = 10pts,
Eighth = 5pts. All others = 0.
Season Index will be settled according to points gained on the pitch and will not include any points deductions.

9
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Squad 22/23
« on: August 16, 2022, 01:27:58 PM »
Found it: Premiership Rugby confirmed yesterday that it plans to reinstate relegation from the 2023-24 season, introducing a play-off between the Championship winners and the top-flight's bottom side.(dated 2 Jun 2022)

10
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Squad 22/23
« on: August 16, 2022, 01:21:06 PM »
Could someone please remind me what year relegation is likely to be re-introduced, I've forgotten what has been said about it.

11
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Bond Refinancing?
« on: May 13, 2022, 07:01:20 PM »
That's good news, I have almost £170k coming back to me from the bond redemption, and I would much rather leave it in there until June earning 6.5% PA, than get it back in the next few days.

12
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Bond Refinancing?
« on: April 27, 2022, 09:34:00 AM »
The bond has risen in the last few days to 96.45/100 pence.

13
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Bond Refinancing?
« on: April 22, 2022, 01:31:51 PM »
I have no inside information, and of course no nasty surprises can be totally ruled out. But the current price has to indicate confidence that the bond is either going to repaid in full or close to 100 pence. It has traded as low as sub 40 pence, I invested a substantial amount at that low price, on some on graphs it was showing as low as 26 pence, but there was nothing to buy at that price, I tried to buy £20k at that price, in the end I couldn't even get £5k invested, so I gave up. I have invested at an average price of 59 pence, so I reasonably happy where it currently is, but nothing is guaranteed. I nearly invested more last week, but I have enough riding on the outcome already. There is  a financial forum that discussed the bond for quite a few years, these are not financial experts (and neither am I), so if you read it, remember that they are only expressing opinions (with some facts thrown in too). https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/wasps-22-WAS1/share-chat

I only have a few hundred quid in them, but even with the fees my average purchase price was under 70p so if they are repaid at 100p I'll be very happy. Especially as they have made a little along the way.

There is no capital gains tax on individual corporate bonds so it is very good value.

EDIT: Although I just realised that unless you have CGT liabilities elsewhere, you would be under the CGT allowance anyway.

14
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Bond Refinancing?
« on: April 22, 2022, 07:29:10 AM »
I have no inside information, and of course no nasty surprises can be totally ruled out. But the current price has to indicate confidence that the bond is either going to repaid in full or close to 100 pence. It has traded as low as sub 40 pence, I invested a substantial amount at that low price, on some on graphs it was showing as low as 26 pence, but there was nothing to buy at that price, I tried to buy £20k at that price, in the end I couldn't even get £5k invested, so I gave up. I have invested at an average price of 59 pence, so I reasonably happy where it currently is, but nothing is guaranteed. I nearly invested more last week, but I have enough riding on the outcome already. There is  a financial forum that discussed the bond for quite a few years, these are not financial experts (and neither am I), so if you read it, remember that they are only expressing opinions (with some facts thrown in too). https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/wasps-22-WAS1/share-chat

15
Wasps Rugby Discussion / Re: Wasps accounts to June 2020
« on: March 12, 2021, 09:51:27 PM »
Yes I was just implying that if he had wanted to he could have bought in to reduce liability later. You must be pleased with your gain!
Well I am not unhappy with my position, but it still has to play out well, my average weighted price is 59.2 pence, and if it goes to the wire, my running yield would be about 10%, so I should be OK, but I am not taking anything for granted. Obviously I would love the bond to be redeemed at 100 pence, and it might be, but it could also be offered and accepted much lower, if Wasps don't get additional investment.

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