With the warm-up games done, teams in Japan and Prem 7s heralding the start of the domestic season I think people are starting to get back into rugby-mode.
With some time on my hands I started making a few notes on teams this season and how I think they will get on. I thought I'd share on here and see what others thought as it looks like being the most competitive season yet and very difficult to call who will rise and fall.
A couple of notes - owing to the length I have just done the top 4 from last year - if people are interested I'll post the rest. I thought I'd use the spoiler system so as to be kind to those viewing on their phone.
Saracens SpoilerSaracens are scary. Not only do they have some of the best players in the Northern Hemisphere (for me the likes of the Vunipolas, Itoje, Williams and possibly Farrell and Daly, maybe George too are knocking on the door of world class), but they also have an immense believe and spirit within the players and the club that make them formidable. Only really Leinster and the Crusaders could live with them at their best. I’m going to ignore all the salary cap shenanigans because I feel it would detract from the intention and debating it now holds no useful purpose. McCall and Sanderson have built a team with a huge amount of character and self-belief, well coached, they play to their strengths, players grow and improve and you get the impression that they are very happy. It doesn’t make me like them though, I still want to beat them more than any other team and I almost always want whoever is playing them to win – that’s success though I think, I’m sure other club’s supporters felt the same about Wasps and Leicester during their heydays. Saracens will be affected by the RWC: they will be missing 15 players (including 7 starting B&I Lions) and that will play a part. But they do have a strong squad and they have bloodied most of their youngsters before.
Saracens build themselves on a strong pack and especially tight five. Their options at prop are fantastic. The issue is that start of the season, where Mako, Kock, Figallo, Lamositele and Carre will be missing. It’s similar at hooker, I doubt that at the time the deal was being organised either Saracens or Singleton expected him to be going to Japan but now they are missing their tow first choice hookers and Gray (maybe – not sure if he is still there), Woolstencroft and maybe Spurling will have to take up the slack. None of these are bad players but I’d be fairly sure that the Saints front row would rather be facing Barrington, Gray and Ibuanokpe than Vunipola, George and Kock. Second row is as strong as ever. Will Skelton remains and that is a huge boost. Dom Day’s exit will mean more game time for the next second row off the production line - Joel Kpoku. For the first time in many years, Sarries back row will not have a Burger and that does mean a bit of a lack of a specialist openside. Clark, Earl and Wray are all very capable of playing their but none are traditional 7s. Backrow is probably the weakest part of a very strong squad and I would expect to see Itoje and Isiekwe play at 6 a lot. That does suite the Saracens style though, they are happy to spread that jackalling around the pack and have a big, powerful 7 in a big powerful backrow. They will win turnovers in collisions and suffocating defence and smash opposition ball-snafflers off with a dominant clear-out game.
The backline is also ridiculous. I tried to work out a best team and there are so many very good combinations that they could put out. Halfbacks are easier, Spencer has now overtaken Wiggy as the first choice starting 9 but they will both get good game time and Whitely will continue to get minutes under his belt. Farrell is the main 10 and in his absence Goode and Malins would have shared responsibilities and will during the 6N but they have an issue at the start of the season with both set to miss that opening games – but they’ve signed Willemse to cover, so that should be ok! Brad Barritt will be first choice 12, backed up by Nick Tompkins but in the three-quarters it’s anyone’s guess. Daly at 11, 13, 14 or 15? Loz at 12, 13 or 14? Taylor at 12, 13 or 15? Maitland, Williams, Lewington and of course Goode or Mailins at 15 – so much choice and so much quality. Even with several of them missing chunks of the season the likes of Gallagher, Morris and Segun have Premiership experience. I think that the RWC and 6N will stretch the backline and any injuries to key players like Barritt at key times could cause problems but I would back the team at Sarries to have worked on every contingency and to be better prepared than most.
Possible best XXIII: Goode, Williams, Taylor, Barritt, Daly; Farrell, Spencer; Vunipola, George, Kock, Skelton, Kruis, Itoje, Wray, Vunipola; Singleton, Barrington, Figallo, Isiekwe, Earl, Wigglesworth, Lozowski, Maitland
Exeter SpoilerThere are a few similarities between Sarries and the Chiefs. Both have based their style of play on the mantra of ‘forwards win matches’ with destructive scrummaging, good lineout skills, being very ‘competitive’ at the breakdown and carrying with power and precision. Both also seem to have culture that everyone at the club buys into. I get the impression that I would like to work for Rob Baxter and I think that the Exeter squad feel the same way. He has done wonders at the club and deserves a huge amount of credit. They have almost always recruited well and worked hard on ensuring that the players that come in get behind the ethos of the team. The nouse and rugby brains of Waldrom, Parling, Salvi etc combined with the get young intake of Slade, Nowell and LCD alongside more seasoned and less celebrated campaigners to create the success they have achieved but with the veterans gone and now having their former starlets away with England for a sizable part of the season we may see some changes. We already saw a more open and expressive Exeter last year and I think that that will continue this year.
Exeter’s front row has not been as ravaged by international call-ups as it might have been. Exeter have always had a good strength in depth at prop and this remains with youngster such as Keast and Street coming through. I’m hopeful that Marcus Street in particular (one of a bunch of good young tightheads who will be battling to be the long-term replacement for Dan Cole in the next world cup cycle) will get plenty of time on the park. Jacks Yeandle and Innard will be carrying a heavy load at hooker for the start of the season but Yeandle in particular is a season campaigner and will take to it with relish I’m sure. In the second row, Chiefs have a cornucopia of riches – the loss of the grunt and power of Mitch Lees surely compensated for by the arrival of Kirsten, South and Whitty who join Hill, Skinner, Dennis and youngsters Lonsdale and Caufield. Rob Baxter may have to dig deep into the squad spirit at Chiefs to keep eight decent locks happy and involved. I’m really interested what Chiefs will do in the back-row this year. As above I sense a slight change in style, the powerful close game of Waldrom, Ewers and Horstmann has been supplemented with Simmonds and then Kvesic alongside Don Armand. With Simmonds hopefully injury free and after the year Matt Kvesic had I wonder how and if Baxter will play them together – along with Armand all three prefer to play in the channels and so will the involve a slight change of game plan and will that allow other teams to use a press defence and try to force handling errors as they play wider. Of course, they don’t lack grunt or personnel on the flanks, Skinner and Dennis are capable of playing there, Capstick has looked good and will Rus Tuima get a chance. I’m looking forward to seeing what happens.
The big news in the backline is Hogg coming in and Cordero going out. I’m hugely excited to see Hogg in the Premiership, he will be great, I hope he can stay fit and produce some magic. However, is it a good move? Cordero was superb and proven in the league and the Chiefs’ system. Also, Hogg will be unavailable for the RWC and 6N. If you asked me would I rather have Hogg or Cordero in my team, I’d say Hogg but if you asked me would you rather have Hogg for 15 games or Cordero for 25, I think I’d change my answer. With Nowell and Slade likely to miss the same international periods as Hoggy there may be an issue with covering 15. Is Dollman still up to it? Maybe Joe Simmonds with Steenson at 10? Out wide I think that Cuthbert will have a good year now he’s up to speed, O’Flaherty looked alright but not top 2 standard for me so I hope we see more of Woodburn and maybe Short this year. In the centres, Slade and Devoto were outstanding and I expect them to continue as such. Sam Hill and the evergreen Ian Whitten will provide the cover. Nic White and his amazing moustache have been superb for Chiefs and that has resulted in a deserved recall to the Wallabie squad but Exeter are well stocked at 9 with Townsend and the Maunders all deserving more game time to prove their credentials for next year when White departs. The 10 shirt depends on the answer to the 15 shirt I expect. I would have thought that Joe Simmonds would overtake Steenson as starter but he maybe required at full back for a decent part of the season. Steenson won’t let them down, but he is 36 this season.
This will be a test for Exeter, their success leading to more players being away on internationals but that have coped before and still consistently been at the top of the table. Will they top the table this year? Probably. Will they fare any better in Europe? Probably not. Will they get to the Prem final? I think so. Will they win the title? No.
Possible best XXIII: Hogg, Cuthbert, Slade, Devoto, Nowell; Simmonds, White; Moon, Yeandle, Williams, Skinner, Hill, Armand, Kvesic, Simmonds; Cowan-Dickie, Hepburm, Francis, Dennis, Ewers, Maunder, Stenson, Woodburn
Gloucester SpoilerThe perennial question – is this Gloucester’s year? Last year they played some great rugby and were good fun to watch. They have always been a bit of a second team for me who I want to see do well – mostly as I have always enjoyed games down at Castle Grim, it’s got a superb atmosphere and (usually) friendly and knowledgeable supporters. They also have two great former Wasps as half-backs and a terrific back-row. Ackermann has been good for the club too and there seems to be a good culture building there, which as we can see from the above clubs can only be useful. I was worried about them just signing a team of Saffas but Sale seem to have cornered that market now so it’s difficult to pick a fault with Gloucester. Depth may be their downfall. They have an excellent 23 and some cover around it but last year saw them fielding some fairly odd backline combinations and come June that may have taken its toll and I think they will struggle with any knock-out games. I still expect them to be very enjoyable to watch this year though, but you may have already guessed my answer to the opening question.
I want to start with their back-row options because they’re great. With everyone fit it’s a case of perm any three/four from Morgan, Kriel, Polledri, Ackermann and Ludlow, then you add in Freddie Clarke and the super physical Aaron Hinkley and they’ve got some talent, with only Polledri bothering international selectors. Back at the coal-face their props look as good as they have been for a while. Balmain, Hoenek and Raparva-Ruskin are all experience and high quality. Dreyer will have more of an impact this year and Ford-Robinson may click in the welcoming, yet challenging environment Ackermann seems to have brought. Behind them, the young duo of Knight and Seville could both be very good. Scrumming down between these guys are a slightly less stellar selection of Hookers. Marais and Hanson are decent enough but to really challenge for top honours you feel this is an area that Gloucester could strengthen in. Henry Walker could be the answer – one of two quality young hookers of that name – he got a couple of start at the end of last year and may be able to stake a claim with the Prem Cup games to keep his place and push on. In the second row you couldn’t get much better last year than Slater and Mostert – grunt, work-rate, line out skills – they had it all. But, Mostert is off for the first couple of months and the back-ups are thin on the ground. Grobler is a very good player and had a good start to his Gloucester career but only had one start since January and a few mins off the bench. Why? I don’t know, I don’t think he was injured, I’d be loath to speculate about anything else so I’m not sure how much he will feature this year. Freddie Clark covered at 19 a lot and would probably be the next choice and then there’s young Alex Craig but an injury to Ed Slater would leave them serious exposed at lock.
I’m going to try to not make this bit about Cips. He has clearly taken to Gloucester and is enjoying himself there. Obviously, he will make players look and play better and his excellent in organising set plays and clever little moments of magic with no-look and miss passes and little kicks through will be a huge benefit but there’s a good set of players outside of him. Mark Atkinson had a brilliant season last year and showed he’s more than just a big bloke who can pass and Billy Twelvetrees is a very good ‘glue’ player capable of playing 10, 12 or 13. Chris Harris is a shrewd buy to bolster the centres and who knows if Trinder will stay fit for more than a few hours, if he does, I’m sure he still has a lot of talent to offer. Despite a lot of injuries last year, Glaws are still bursting with back three players – Banahan, Sharples, Thorley, Marshall. Seabrook, Hudson and a couple of youngsters give them plenty of options. They may be more limited for options at 9 at the start of the season with Willie Heniz off to Japan along with Callum Braley leaving just Joe Simpson to rekindle his partnership with the player I’m trying not to mention – I think their other option is Scotland U20s Charlie Chapman who I know very little about so no pressure Joe!
They were really good last year and they haven’t made many changes, a bit of tinkering round the edges nothing more. I think other teams will have shown a bigger improvement and Gloucester will be drawn back into the pack rather than being the breakaway ‘3rd best’. I’ve got them down for 4th or 5th so sadly not their year once again.
Possible best XXIII: Woodward, Marshall, Twelvetrees, Atkinson, Thorley; Cipriani, Heinz; Honeck, Marais, Balmain, Slater, Mostert, Ackerman, Kriel, Morgan; Hanson, Rapava-Ruskin, Dreyer, Grobler, Polledri, Simpson, Harris, Banahan
Northampton Saints SpoilerThis is as good a Saints team as they had since they won the Premiership. Boyd is an astute coach who has made an impact on Saints and the way they play. He has brought a confidence and a certain zing to their play; he has also recruited well – strengthening the front row and bringing in a defensive leader of a centre. I’m cautious about getting carried away as Saints did not really finish that far ahead of a large chasing pack for fourth place last year but they improved over the course of the season and have been given a lot of game time to youngsters who have taken to top level rugby extremely well. There is good reason for Saints fans to be confident this year but their success last year will have ramifications in losing players to the RWC and having a bigger target on their backs. Boyd will have to work hard to avoid ‘second season’ syndrome for himself and his young charges but there is every chance they will be able to build on last year’s success.
He may be surplus to Hanson’s requirements for the World Cup but that should mean that a fresher and very motivated Owen Franks turns up at the Gardens’ in November. He will form a near perfect selection of tight-heads with Paul Hill looking to show why he was such a force as a youngster and the young tyro in Painter nipping at their heels. On the other side, Alex Waller went from stalwart to walking scrum penalty and van Wyk was instrumental in reversing a worrying trend for Saints scrums to go backwards. I imagine Waller will have worked hard in the off season and the pair, as well as Ben Franks, are decent. At hooker there are a lot of questions on the futures of Hartley and Haywood who would still presumably be first choice if fit and firing. I would hope Dylan could have at least one more season and Haywood is still young. If there are problems there though, Marshall and Fish were both adequate last year and should improve. There is a good stable of locks at Northampton: aside from Lawes, Ribbans has impressed but needs to stay fit and Alex Moon had a very good year – with Courtney and Ratuniyarawa away you would presume they would be the pairing at the start of the season, thought I’d expect Alex Coles and new recruit Lewis Bean to be in the equation too. In the backrow, Saints have some great players but there appears to be some missing balance when compared with other teams. Brüssow still has a fair bit to offer, same with Woody but both are getting on a bit. Gibson and Harrison are both excellent Premiership quality players and Ludlam had a great season last year and is riding that wave to Japan. Other than that, Lawes will play quite a bit at 6 and Mitch Eadie can play but I can’t see much in the way of a big carrier who can make yards in the tight and with the loss of Burrell as a crash ball option they may lack variety in attack. There was talk of Tyler Paul coming in but I haven’t seen anything more of that.
I’m going to start at 13 for Saints: Hutchinson, Procter and Dingwall – what amazing options to have. I totally get Boyd going back to the ‘Canes to get Proctor as a replacement for Horne as a defensive leader in the 13 shirt but he probably didn’t bank on Hutchinson and Dingwall being as good as they were. Headaches galore but injuries, rotation and versatility should see all three kept happy. Francis had a very good year last year and deserves his England place, hopefully Andy Symons will be back fit again this year to cover for him. Another injury returnee is Harry Mallinder and the question will be have he and Boyd worked out where he is going to play? Will be cover Biggar at 10 or will young Grayson be given that responsibility? Will he cover 12 or is his defence a bot suspect? Will he go to 15 or has George Furbank claimed that (alongside Tuala)? Mallider’s talent deserves a place in the team but where? On the wings Naiaravaro and Collins can continue their little and large double act supported by Ollie Sleightholme. Biggar and Reinach are a great double act in the half backs but both are away for the RWC and the excellent Alex Mitchell will miss the start of the season with injury so Henry Taylor starts at 9 I think – alongside Grayson that would be a big ask for both. So, lots of potential and when everyone is there, a lot of good selection headaches but with injuries at internationals there’ll be plenty of bad headaches too.
The squad is better that last year. I can’t see them getting spanked by Sarries in the same way as they were at the start of last season and I think they could do really well. Yes, players will be missing but I think that their youngsters will stand up and produce and I’m back Saints for a top 2 finish this year but then out in the semis.
Possible best XXIII: Mallinder, Collins, Procter, Francis, Naiaravaro; Biggar, Reinach; van Vyk, Hartley, Franks, Moon, Ratuniyarawa, Lawes, Ludlum, Harrison; Haywood, Franks, Hill, Gibson, Brüssow, Mitchell, Hutchinson, Furbank