We are not far off, based upon Saturday, and have a lot to be optimistic about.
However, Newcastle were not far off last year, they did not suddenly become a bad team, they just did worse than the others.
We need to be consistently less far-off then a couple of other teams, and we are not there yet, in order to survive in the league. I think we have a very good squad and will do far better than we are at the moment, this year success will be mid-table and we should be pushing for top 4 next. The other teams won't stand still though, and having a big lead over the doped-up Saracens is not a safety net. Empirically we are worse off then at this time last year, and we were in a survival battle then (although with a few more points we could have been top 4).