Lions tour at serious risk of cancellation.

[Heathen]

With the discovery of another variant of Covid in South Africa, which apparently not only affects the lungs but also the immune system, there now has to be a very quick decision on cancelling the Lions tour IMHO.

HMG has to ban all travel to and from SA immediately. They were slow to react when China kicked off in 2019, by not imposing an immediate ban. Failayre to act this time, will be a very crass action indeed.

[NellyWellyWaspy]

This is the variant that will require a new version of the vaccine? It is already here. Horse, bolted, after, gate, closing.

In any event, surely, if we vaccinate everyone in the UK (or world) then won't the virus mutate to avoid that protection we have?

... and that protection isn't against catching the virus, instead it is to minimise the effects and longevity, yes? People will still catch it, spread it, and still get ill.

I think we are living in cloud cuckoo land if we think it won't mutate, and if we think this one vaccine will be the only needed answer.

This virus is here to stay, in whatever form it takes. We will need constant changes to vaccines. With flu, it has tended to changed every year or two, giving vaccine makers time to react.

With Covid, it looks like we are going to be behind the curve for a long time, as it is mutating around the vaccines faster than we can react.

The effects of the virus are far more serious on any health service. We only have two real choices. Either spend (and recruit) a lot more resources on our hospitals etc (double/treble) or exclude treatment for Covid from being free at point of delivery.

So, logic (science) dictates that the current approach, to isolate where possible, to treat severe symptoms if possible, and to vaccinate when we can, is never likely to succeed. If this is a war, we will not win it this way.

Where do we go from here? There is the distinct possibility that huge swathes of the vulnerable members of society (that's me and loads of us forum members) are going to have our lives shortened, a lot. We could easily see 'excess' deaths rise in to the hundreds of thousands a year in the UK alone.

Not sure I should have posted this. I am no scientist, but I can read between the lines of the lies, mistruths and diversions our politicians tell us.

[backdoc]

Heathen, the current covid-19 affects nearly every organ system.

My lungs were back to normal within 3 months, but I had myocarditis [very common] which has resolved in the last 6-8 weeks, so at least 6 months. The effect on the Central Nervous System is almost universal as well.

I think the important message from the Telegraph article is at the bottom:

"Asked whether current Covid-19 vaccines would be able to tackle both the UK and South African variants, he said the Oxford University team was currently assessing this and there was still "room to manoeuvre" because the vaccines worked "much better than any of us thought they were going to".

"I think it's unlikely that these mutations will turn off the effects of vaccines entirely – I think they'll still have a residual effect," he said, adding that it was "perfectly possible" to make new vaccines in a matter of weeks if necessary.

"It might take a month, or six weeks, to get a new vaccine, so everybody should stay calm. It's going to be fine," he said. "But we're now in a game of cat and mouse, because these are not the only two variants we're going to see. We're going to see lots of variants."

[Neils]

I note that Oxford are saying if it is a variant that dodges the current vaccine they will require approx 6 months to design and prove an update. By which time there will probably be another variant more potent still (the Iranian Variant?) which will require to be investigated and a re-design fabricated. 2021 is a washout I fear. God help things like rugby clubs.

[Shugs]

Let's be honest. Lions tours only happen for money. There can't be crowds there ergo there will be no money. Might as well cancel it now and then everyone knows where they are.

[Neils]

Let's be honest. Lions tours only happen for money. There can't be crowds there ergo there will be no money. Might as well cancel it now and then everyone knows where they are.

This I agree with totally.

[hookender]

I think it will be best all round . Unfortunately I can see the case for the European comps to be cancelled as well (Bayonne have cancelled their next two cup games. May help save french and English leagues though pro 14 could be at risk.

6 nations perhaps should also be looked at ,though this and European comps may unfortunately come down to dosh from tv

[Rifleman Harris]

This is the variant that will require a new version of the vaccine? It is already here. Horse, bolted, after, gate, closing.

In any event, surely, if we vaccinate everyone in the UK (or world) then won't the virus mutate to avoid that protection we have?

... and that protection isn't against catching the virus, instead it is to minimise the effects and longevity, yes? People will still catch it, spread it, and still get ill.

I think we are living in cloud cuckoo land if we think it won't mutate, and if we think this one vaccine will be the only needed answer.

This virus is here to stay, in whatever form it takes. We will need constant changes to vaccines. With flu, it has tended to changed every year or two, giving vaccine makers time to react.

With Covid, it looks like we are going to be behind the curve for a long time, as it is mutating around the vaccines faster than we can react.

The effects of the virus are far more serious on any health service. We only have two real choices. Either spend (and recruit) a lot more resources on our hospitals etc (double/treble) or exclude treatment for Covid from being free at point of delivery.

So, logic (science) dictates that the current approach, to isolate where possible, to treat severe symptoms if possible, and to vaccinate when we can, is never likely to succeed. If this is a war, we will not win it this way.

Where do we go from here? There is the distinct possibility that huge swathes of the vulnerable members of society (that's me and loads of us forum members) are going to have our lives shortened, a lot. We could easily see 'excess' deaths rise in to the hundreds of thousands a year in the UK alone.

Not sure I should have posted this. I am no scientist, but I can read between the lines of the lies, mistruths and diversions our politicians tell us.

I think you are being a bit pessimistic (which is understandable in the circumstances).  Part of the problem is the virus is so widespread it has many many opportunities for mutation.  The vaccines work by training  the body to recognise proteins associated with the spikes.  From what I understand (I am a Chemical Engineer, but I work in Pharma) the DNA associated with these proteins were chosen to be relatively non-specific to the coronavirus and so requires the virus to mutate in a specific ways such that the body doesn't recognise the spike any longer. Mostly the body should react in some way if it encounters some of the mutations. If it doesn't recognise the spike then, at least with the Biontech / Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, it is just a case of obtaining the new DNA and updating the vaccine, which isn't a big job.  The trick is producing and administering enough vaccine to get on top of the virus rather than actually modifying the vaccine.

 

One other point the vaccine is designed to protect against getting the infection. I believe that the reason why it is being said that it just reduces the effect and longevity is because of the way the data was collected and analysed.  A lack of spread could be due to more than just the vaccine, but a lack of or reduced symptoms are clear and can be attributed to the vaccine therefore the results are more definite.  Time will tell if the vaccine actually stops transmission too, so I wouldn't write off the vaccines just yet.

[Bloke in North Dorset]

From today's Spectator Covid-19 newsletter:

"
...

Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at the University of Oxford,

...

If the South African strain does not respond to existing vaccines, said Bell, it wouldn’t take a year to develop a new vaccine which would. It would take around four to six weeks to reprogram existing vaccines to respond to the new strain. It would require little in the way of safety data because only small changes would need to be made, which shouldn’t interfere with the safe working of the vaccine. What we can’t do, thinks Bell, is prevent the South African strain from reaching Britain. On the contrary, he thinks it is already here, although circulating in small quantities."

There's a paywalled article here: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/could-the-south-african-strain-affect-the-vaccine-?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020210104%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_f472391087bbf9ee7dc3b71c5f499174

[Hymenoptera]

Anyone else concerned that closer to home, the country will revert to full closure, incl sport...I fully expect the euro comp to close down, with other clubs following Bayonne's lead.

[Bloke in North Dorset]

Anyone else concerned that closer to home, the country will revert to full closure, incl sport...I fully expect the euro comp to close down, with other clubs following Bayonne's lead.

Scotland announced harder lockdown but elite sport to continue.

It would be a shame to lose the Euro comps but given what's happening at the moment understandable. It does mean more rest for players so a much keener Prem league, especially if 6N pushed out to summer as is also being discussed.

[Rifleman Harris]

Apparently the only detail so far is professional support will be allowed to continue behind closed doors.

[Neils]

Apparently the only detail so far is professional support will be allowed to continue behind closed doors.

Professional support is essential.

[Shugs]

I think elite sport will continue as is. Cancel the Lions, push 6N back in place of it and find a way (difficult) to re-distribute the cash generated by the RFU to the clubs who supply them with the players they make their cash from.

[Skippy]

6N in the summer. AIs cancelled and replaced by a four match Lions tour vs SA. Games to be played at the Lions home grounds. Second string internationals can be played in place if the normal AI crowd against Tier 2 nations to boost their coffers — Fiji, Samoa, Tonga and Georgia.