Massie-Ferguson Speaks

[Neils]

I stopped reading at the social media bit.

Trouble is there isn't much else to do other than read this stuff- unless you count going to the Warrior's board to endure the delusional ramblings of a few faves.

 I guess PRL and the RFU  think they may be able to survive this season with no further clubs down the swanny, but I am not so sure.

I suspect that, behind the scenes, they have required all the sugar daddies to sign a personal guarantee to fund the clubs sufficiently to keep them going until each of them has played their last game, with the sanction that the club would be booted out before the season started. I think this was why Irish went under. Having refused to sign up to that, it all unraveled from there.

What this means is that each owner, around January or February, will work out if they can or want to sustain their respective leeches for 24/25. If they do not, they will work out who actually needs paying (and when) to keep the doors open (and indeed that will also be affected by playoffs etc, and also if their last game is home or away). From a certain point onwards, creditors will start to find themselves not being paid. Again, exactly what happened at Irish. They then simply wait for HMRC to take action, which they will. It would not surprise me to see two more clubs go under.

It's like watching green bottles on a wall, in slow motion.

Sounds plausible. If they expect to announce the deal in December they've probably agreed HoTs and financials and are just finalising the finer details. That should give the clubs a reasonable view of their finances until the end of the season.

The next major hurdle will be TV rights. For the clubs that is a very big deal for financial because it gives them a known income for X years, most other streams being quite variable and subject to external influences.

Also remember CVC take over a quarter of anything agree viz TV. Personally I cannot see a large figure being offered for such paltry fare.

[NellyWellyWaspy]

I stopped reading at the social media bit.

Trouble is there isn't much else to do other than read this stuff- unless you count going to the Warrior's board to endure the delusional ramblings of a few faves.

 I guess PRL and the RFU  think they may be able to survive this season with no further clubs down the swanny, but I am not so sure.

I suspect that, behind the scenes, they have required all the sugar daddies to sign a personal guarantee to fund the clubs sufficiently to keep them going until each of them has played their last game, with the sanction that the club would be booted out before the season started. I think this was why Irish went under. Having refused to sign up to that, it all unraveled from there.

What this means is that each owner, around January or February, will work out if they can or want to sustain their respective leeches for 24/25. If they do not, they will work out who actually needs paying (and when) to keep the doors open (and indeed that will also be affected by playoffs etc, and also if their last game is home or away). From a certain point onwards, creditors will start to find themselves not being paid. Again, exactly what happened at Irish. They then simply wait for HMRC to take action, which they will. It would not surprise me to see two more clubs go under.

It's like watching green bottles on a wall, in slow motion.

Sounds plausible. If they expect to announce the deal in December they've probably agreed HoTs and financials and are just finalising the finer details. That should give the clubs a reasonable view of their finances until the end of the season.

The next major hurdle will be TV rights. For the clubs that is a very big deal for financial because it gives them a known income for X years, most other streams being quite variable and subject to external influences.

Yes. I do not expect the deal to be anywhere near as lucrative. My guess is that it could be less than half what the last deal was for. That would put a massive strain on finances, and the RFU will find itself under fire from those sugar daddies.

[baldpaul101]

Yet again we are being drip fed bits & pieces that ask more questions than they answer. Just get on with publishing full details of the whole new PGA, how its going to be funded, how will promotion relegation be done, how will prem 1 & 2 work, how will the rumoured "franchise clubs" work?
All we have so far is vague snippets that don't help anyone, as Lwasp said, this seems like leaking of stuff to see the reaction.

[westwaleswasp]

Absolutely but I think we are drip fed the plan because it is ad hoc. Or rather, ad cock.
Wasps and Irish were very good for viewing figures. Diaspora of fans and a non geographic appeal. Not good for gate receipts but good for TV. More so with the high scoring approaches of both.
Moreover, many of those fans have no reason to watch other games. I often saw other team's games, now I see the URC. Many watch top 14 instead now.

[baldpaul101]

Absolutely but I think we are drip fed the plan because it is ad hoc. Or rather, ad cock.

You are probably correct but they are planning to announce it in December....a few weeks away..... you would really hope its mostly decided upon by now, surely....
I know its the RFU but given the multiple moving parts, most of it MUST be agreed at this point. If not rugby really is down the sh1tt?r

[JF]

Unless you can pay players, staff and suppliers in tweets this is just marketing nonsense, the same sort of thinking that believes that booming music before, after and at various points within the game delights fans and makes them want to come back for more.

?5m cash inflow and ?10m outflow is unsustainable and anyone who believes otherwise shouldn't be allowed to be in charge of a piggy bank, let alone a professional sport.

Tweet that, you numskulls.

[Bloke in North Dorset]

@Neils & NWW

I agree, its hard to see a TV deal providing anywhere near the money the have in the past, rugby is only a schedule filler not a main draw to subscription TV. I would also expect there to be some fairly stiff claw back clauses around clubs dropping out and relegation.

I've said it before, but they might be better off in the long run seeing if ITV/C4 will pick it up and show live games, even if they have to give it away for a couple of years. Free to air rather than some dusty corner of yet another a subscription channel playing second or third fiddle to football would help rebuild fans bases, attract more kids to the game and be more appealing to sponsors if there a larger audience.