Wasps vs Saracens – Scrum analysis

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Wasps vs Saracens

Wasps vs Saracens u18s

Wasps vs Saracens is probably the most highly anticipated game of the moment given the form of the two teams, and any way you look at it this is going to be one of the biggest tests Dai Young’s Wasps have faced. Saracens are currently on an unbeated run of 10 from 10 in all competitions so far this season, and Wasps, while having lost a number of games, seem to have gelled, and put away Bath, Toulon, and Leinster with relative ease. ┬áThe u18s match on the 18th was a clear win to Wasps, but who will win when the two first teams face off at the Ricoh arena?

It is often said that the forwards decide who wins a game, and the backs decide how many points by. So which team has the best set fo forwards? It’s very hard to say as there are some excellent players in both teams with world class players abounding at every position. So I thought it might be interesting to look at some statistics of how the teams have performed in the scrum so far this season.

Wasps vs Saracens – Own Scrum

Firstly lets look at scrums won on their own put in.

Wasps are currently sitting on a very respectable 89% (66 out of 74)

Saracens are currently at 91% (59 form 65) although the stats for their last ECC game were not available at the time of writing.

So there is very little to choose looking at the numbers themselves. It could simply be that all AP teams are pretty similar in ability, so lets look at how London Irish have been doing as they are currently sitting at the bottom of the table.

They have 34 from 41 giving them a percentage success of 83% signifcanlt lower than either team, though for the purposes of full disclosure there are no stats available for Challenge cup matches, so this may well be different in reality.

Wasps vs Saracens – Opposition’s Scrum

Scrums won on your own put in is a valuable thing to know, but perhaps it would be more relevant to know what percantage of scrums a team has won on the opponent’s put in. When we look at that it shows a very different story.

Saracens have a win rate of 6% (2 from 34)

Wasps have a win rate of 10% (3 from 30)

But most surprisingly London Irish have a success rate of 15% (6 from 41)

What this shows is that there is little to differentiate the teams when it comes to the Scrum, Saracens have a slight statistical advantage on their own scrum over Wasps, but Wasps have a better success rate on the opponent’s put in. Who will come out on top on the 27th? Only time will tell. All we can say for certain is that Dai Young has worked wonders with a team everyone was writing off as recently as the start of the season, and that Wasps vs Saracens is going to be one hard played, and passionate game.

What do you think?  Discuss it here.

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