Last 4 Rounds

[andermt]

Bit of fun at lunchtime today, so haven't spent too much time thinking about it but had a look at the last 4 Premiership weekends and where certain teams might end up, my thoughts are below, interested to hear others opinions. A few results that people may not agree with but overall I think relegation is down to this weekend.
I think Falcons will beat Tigers and think Sharks will beat Warriors, I then don't see another game where Warriors could win, the game against Sharks is probably it.
I also think Wasps might just scrape 6th, but that really depends on the Bath game which I think we could win (assuming we win against Quins), plus bonus points vs Sarries & Chiefs, but it could easily be Wasps, Bath or Saints in 6th.
I've also tried to guess bonus points as I think they will be critical in the final table.
So dissect away and tell me I'm completely wrong etc etc, as there are a few I'm not convinced on myself, and see how wrong I am after this weekend

Current Table
Chiefs   76
Sarries   67
Glaws   55
Quins   49
Sharks   44
Bath       44
Saints   42
Wasps   42
Bears   37
Tigers   34
Warriors   32
Falcons   29

This weekend Round 19 (W or L is for home team)
Falcons   W   Tigers
Warriors   L   Sharks
Glaws   W   Bath
Quins   L   Saints
Bears   L   Sarries
Chiefs   W   Wasps

Table
Chiefs   81
Sarries   72
Glaws   59
Quins   50
Sharks   48
Saints   46
Bath     45
Wasps   43
Bears   37
Tigers   35
Warriors   33
Falcons   33

Round 20 Results
Sharks   W   Bath
Falcons   W   Saints
Chiefs   W   Quins
Tigers   L   Bears
Wasps   L   Sarries
Warriors   L   Glaws

Table
Chiefs   85
Sarries   76
Glaws   63
Quins   50
Sharks   52
Bath     46
Saints   46
Wasps   44
Bears   41
Falcons   37
Tigers   36
Warriors   34

Round 21 Results
Quins   W   Tigers
Bears   W   Sharks
Saints   W   Warriors
Sarries   W   Chiefs
Glaws   W   Falcons
Bath   L   Wasps

Table
Chiefs   86
Sarries   80
Glaws   68
Quins   55
Sharks   53
Saints   51
Wasps   48
Bath     47
Bears   46
Falcons   38
Tigers   36
Warriors   34

Round 22 Results
Chiefs   W   Saints
Warriors   L   Sarries
Wasps   W   Quins
Falcons   W   Bears
Sharks   L   Glaws
Tigers   L   Bath

Final Table
Chiefs   90
Sarries   85
Glaws   72
Quins   56
Sharks   54
Wasps   52
Bath   51
Saints   51
Bears   47
Falcons   42
Tigers   36
Warriors   34

[Hymenoptera]

Tigs aint losing to Bears at home...suspect they'll beat bath too.

Quins aint losing to Saints at home.

I can see Worcs beating Sale at home.

Wasps to miss out on BP's against the top 2.

IMO that is.

[andermt]

Tigs aint losing to Bears at home...suspect they'll beat bath too.

Quins aint losing to Saints at home.

I can see Worcs beating Sale at home.

Wasps to miss out on BP's against the top 2.

IMO that is.

They are probably the ones I was unsure on.

Tigers have lost to Warriors at home this season, so could see an upset from Bears

The way Tigers are playing currently they may not win again this season. Quins vs Saints, again, Saints are playing well and Quins have struggled recently.

The other ones are Glaws, they are struggling for backs currently so whilst they have been very good and they should win all 4 games, there could be some upsets.

[Heathen]

The Sarries match could be an interesting one. If Sarries beat Munster then I fancy they might rest a few for the return to the Ricoh the following week. Top spot is now odds on Chiefs and Saries will cement pretty comfortably.

If we can get amomg them early AND SUSTAIN IT, we could well spring a surprise.

I fancy us to get the Ws against Bath and Quins.

[andermt]

The Sarries match could be an interesting one. If Sarries beat Munster then I fancy they might rest a few for the return to the Ricoh the following week. Top spot is now odds on Chiefs and Saries will cement pretty comfortably.

If we can get amomg them early AND SUSTAIN IT, we could well spring a surprise.

I fancy us to get the Ws against Bath and Quins.

I think Sarries and Chiefs will both be targeting their round 21 match, to lay down a marker for the final, both will expect to be in. So agree, they may rest a few for our match.

[Hymenoptera]

Quins at home are a different animal though with Saints stronger at franklins.

Bristol aren't pragmatic enough to win at Tigers, their care free attitude may work at home but away I see Tigs getting the BP regardless how much Manu doesnt want to tackle now he has his 600k pa signed up.

[Vespula Vulgaris]

Quins at home are a different animal though with Saints stronger at franklins.

Bristol aren't pragmatic enough to win at Tigers, their care free attitude may work at home but away I see Tigs getting the BP regardless how much Manu doesnt want to tackle now he has his 600k pa signed up.

I think Bristol are a stronger team than Worcester. And Tigers are showing no signs of arresting their freefall right now.  I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't win anything at all from here on in.

[RBB]

Things all over the place at Tigers, Eastmond now injured (not sure that’s a major blow). In addition there is noise all over Twitter that Matt Toomua has asked to be released before the end of the season, Tigers have apparently refused.

[Hymenoptera]

Quins at home are a different animal though with Saints stronger at franklins.

Bristol aren't pragmatic enough to win at Tigers, their care free attitude may work at home but away I see Tigs getting the BP regardless how much Manu doesnt want to tackle now he has his 600k pa signed up.

I think Bristol are a stronger team than Worcester. And Tigers are showing no signs of arresting their freefall right now.  I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't win anything at all from here on in.

Even though Worc just beat Bristol away? - Not sure I agree with you but we'll see i guess.

[Vespula Vulgaris]

Even though Worc just beat Bristol away? - Not sure I agree with you but we'll see i guess.

Bristol beat us at the Ricoh, Worcester didn't. I don't think we can make judgements on the back of single games. But Bristol have picked up more bonus points along the way, that I'd say is more telling.

[Hymenoptera]

Even though Worc just beat Bristol away? - Not sure I agree with you but we'll see i guess.

Bristol beat us at the Ricoh, Worcester didn't. I don't think we can make judgements on the back of single games. But Bristol have picked up more bonus points along the way, that I'd say is more telling.

I'll stick with direct form myself rather than 3rd party results, else i'd be referring you to when Worc beat Exeter away...

The fact that Worc beat Bris only 2 weeks ago AWAY tell's me they are the better team.

Bonus points don't tell any story, the win column speaks the truth.

[Rossm]

Bonus points don't tell any story, the win column speaks the truth.


The bottom four have all won six games. If there were no bonus points, then they'd all be tied on 24 points - separated presumably only by points difference. The bottom four would now look like this:

9th Worcester -69.
10th Briz -89
11th Newks -111
12th Tigers -151

[Hymenoptera]

Didn't say they weren't important but they don't speak as to the better team...that's results...and Bris lost at home to Worcs, nuff said. 

[Heathen]

Even though Worc just beat Bristol away? - Not sure I agree with you but we'll see i guess.

Bristol beat us at the Ricoh, Worcester didn't. I don't think we can make judgements on the back of single games. But Bristol have picked up more bonus points along the way, that I'd say is more telling.

Bristol beat us in the PRCup NOT the GP. We have beaten Briz home and away in the GP.

[wasps]

I haven't seen either team play much for the last couple of months, but my general feeling about the 2 sides is that Bristol have a higher ceiling to their ability.
They've put lots of teams under pressure for long periods of the game, but they're quite inconsistent from one game to the next and during individual games too. They often struggle to keep their intensity for more than 50-60 minutes

Worcester are more consistent, and play their game for 80 minutes, but usually don't have the game breakers that Bristol have


At this stage of the season when it's so important, I wouldn't put much faith in any previous results. That game will be played like a cup final