Irish in Covid Scare

[Neils]

https://mol.im/a/9676271

Makes you wonder about last week.

[MarleyWasp]

It does, but could be unrelated.

If Irish get two points, only both Newcastle and Bath wining, with us losing could push us out of the top 8.

[Rossm]

Fingers crossed that there isn't a knock on effect to our game tomorrow.

[Bloke in North Dorset]

They failed a lateral flow test and are now doing PCR.  I saw some analysis from LFDs on 1 June, of the 1,000 or so failures by the time they’d finished doing PCRs only about 400 remained positive we’re still positive and it’s not clear those were retested. 

[Bloke in North Dorset]

Found it, it didn’t take long but my memory failed on the numbers.

https://twitter.com/dontbetyet/status/1400381877589057537?s=21

This chart shows how inaccurate the LFD "Case" numbers are.

It shows them from the first reported date and how they are amended for false positives each day.

Example 30th May

31st May = 736
1st June = 633
2nd June = 419

so far 43% of positives were False.

[MarleyWasp]

I've been using lateral flow tests and they do not strike me as the most accurate around. If I did one which came out positive I'd be booking a PCR test to make sure.

That said, as big an issue as false positives are, it's false negatives that really concern me.

[NellyWellyWaspy]

Found it, it didn’t take long but my memory failed on the numbers.

https://twitter.com/dontbetyet/status/1400381877589057537?s=21

This chart shows how inaccurate the LFD "Case" numbers are.

It shows them from the first reported date and how they are amended for false positives each day.

Example 30th May

31st May = 736
1st June = 633
2nd June = 419

so far 43% of positives were False.

A test where the results are 43% false positives is statistically useless. Two standard deviations would, I am guessing, be a range below 0 to over 100%. A total waste of money.

[Bloke in North Dorset]

Found it, it didn’t take long but my memory failed on the numbers.

https://twitter.com/dontbetyet/status/1400381877589057537?s=21

This chart shows how inaccurate the LFD "Case" numbers are.

It shows them from the first reported date and how they are amended for false positives each day.

Example 30th May

31st May = 736
1st June = 633
2nd June = 419

so far 43% of positives were False.

A test where the results are 43% false positives is statistically useless. Two standard deviations would, I am guessing, be a range below 0 to over 100%. A total waste of money.

its probably worse than that as not everyone goes for a PCR.

[13thWarrior]

Found it, it didn’t take long but my memory failed on the numbers.

https://twitter.com/dontbetyet/status/1400381877589057537?s=21

This chart shows how inaccurate the LFD "Case" numbers are.

It shows them from the first reported date and how they are amended for false positives each day.

Example 30th May

31st May = 736
1st June = 633
2nd June = 419

so far 43% of positives were False.

A test where the results are 43% false positives is statistically useless. Two standard deviations would, I am guessing, be a range below 0 to over 100%. A total waste of money.

As mentioned in another post, whether it is useless or not depends on the rate of false negatives too. If that rate is very low, then the test is useful as an indicator of who needs to be tested again with a PCR test (those who tested positive) and who can be let go (as you are confident that the negatives are true negatives).

[Chunky24]

Game off

https://www.premiershiprugby.com/news/bristol-bears-v-london-irish-is-off

[Steve from Cov]

Game off

https://www.premiershiprugby.com/news/bristol-bears-v-london-irish-is-off

Does this mean Wasps are guaranteed a European Cup place next season?

[Chunky24]

Game off

https://www.premiershiprugby.com/news/bristol-bears-v-london-irish-is-off

Does this mean Wasps are guaranteed a European Cup place next season?

No, from BB:

With the Covid-19 cases coming from within he Exiles camp, Bristol are likely to be awarded four points and London Irish two, which means they cannot finish above Wasps or Leicester Tigers in the table.

While Wasps could still be knocked out of the top eight by Newcastle Falcons, who are four points behind in the table and travel to Harlequins today, Tigers have a five-point buffer on the Falcons going into today's game with Wasps.

Bath would also need to win or get 2 points while wasps got none

[Neils]

Game off

https://www.premiershiprugby.com/news/bristol-bears-v-london-irish-is-off

Does this mean Wasps are guaranteed a European Cup place next season?

No with Irish getting 2 points if we fail to get a LBP I believe as it stands Irish overtake us. Both Newcastle at Quins and Bath playing Saints can still overtake us if we lose.

[Steve from Cov]

Game off

https://www.premiershiprugby.com/news/bristol-bears-v-london-irish-is-off

Does this mean Wasps are guaranteed a European Cup place next season?

No with Irish getting 2 points if we fail to get a LBP I believe as it stands Irish overtake us. Both Newcastle at Quins and Bath playing Saints can still overtake us if we lose.

Good - it means we have to throw the kitchen sink at it today.COYW.

[NellyWellyWaspy]

Game off

https://www.premiershiprugby.com/news/bristol-bears-v-london-irish-is-off

Does this mean Wasps are guaranteed a European Cup place next season?

No with Irish getting 2 points if we fail to get a LBP I believe as it stands Irish overtake us. Both Newcastle at Quins and Bath playing Saints can still overtake us if we lose.

We currently have 48 points. Irish are on 46, so with 2 points they draw level with us. The next factor in order is number of wins isn't it? We have 9, they have 6.