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Author Topic: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.  (Read 4030 times)

Raggs

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Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« on: February 27, 2018, 07:37:29 AM »
Posted this elsewhere, but thought you fellows may be interested too. Did ruck marks on the england game, then rodneyregis did the tables from the scores and other stats.

Attack
Mako 1,1,2,3,1,1,2,2,2,1,1
Hartley 2,2,1,1,3,2,1,3,3,2,2,2,2,3,2,2
Cole 1,2,2,2,1,2,1,2,2,1,2,2,2,3,2,2,2,2,2,2
Launch 2,1,1,4,4,1,2,2,3,3,2,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,1,2,3,2,2,2,2,2,3,1
Itoje 3,1,2,1,1,2,3,2,1,2,3,4,2,2,3,1,3,2,2,3,2,1,2,2,2
Lawes 1,2,1,3,2,2,2,2,1,2,2,2,4,2,1,2,3,1,2
Robshaw 2,1,2,5,3,1,2,1,2,1,4,3,4,4,4,1,2,2,2,2,1,1,2,4
Hughes 3,2,2,2,2,2,1,3,3,2,1

Care 3,1,3
Ford 2,4,2,1,1
May 4,2,3,2,4,2,2,2,2,2,1,2
Farrell 1,3,1,2,1
Joseph 3,2,2,2,2,2,3,2,3,2,2,2
Watson 2,2,2,2,2,2
Brown 4,1,3,2,2,4

George 2,2,3,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,4,2,2,2,3
Marler 3,2,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,1,2,3,1,2
Williams 2,2,1,3,1,2,3,2,2,2,1,2,3,3,2,3
Kruis 1,2,4,2,1,2,1
Underhill 2,2,2,1,1,1,2,2
Wiggles
Teo 2,2,2,1,2,3
Nowell 3,2,4



Defence
Mako 1,3,1,1
Hartley 3,3
Cole 3,1,3,3,1,1,2,2
Launch 2,1
Itoje 1,1,3,2,3,2,2,2
Lawes 1,1,2,1,3,1,3,3,1,2,1,2,2
Robshaw 1,3,5,3,1,2,1,3,2,3,3,2,3,1
Hughes 1

Care 2
Ford
May 2
Farrell 2
Joseph
Watson
Brown  1,2

George
Marler
Williams
Kruis
Underhill 2,5,1,1
Wiggles
Teo
Nowell

Hughes 1st carry was over the gainline past the tackle. 2nd carry is running it back from kick, bumps Gray, flattens the tighthead, goes through Gray for a few more yards along witht he 6, Scotland have no chance of rucking that. Hard to really say there's ruck marks since the players bound to Hughes just come off their feet. Quick ball though.
3rd carry is from the base of a ruck, he makes a meter, but has his leg pulled forward from under him, Ford clears the 7.
4th carry takes it out of a disrupted maul, gets sent back to more or less where he started (2 steps forward, 2 steps back).
5th carry from the restart, no one is really interested, 2 bring him down but they're not bothering for the breakdown. Would go down as yards made, but didn't really go past the first contact.
6th Carry, takes the ball at pace from Care on a good line, makes 6/7 meters.
7th Carry, from the base of a ruck, drives over gray, makes a yard or two after contact. Not the most effective, but not a bad thing
8th carry, care to hughes, makes 2 yards, takes 2 to bring him down, releases and stands.
9th carry. Makes another 6-7 yards I guess, good quick front foot ball
10th carry, hit as soon as he got the ball, no yards.
11th carry, 2nd half, Brown receives a kick gives it to Hughes coming at pace. Hughes goes through the first tackler (tighthead, leaves him limping), makes yards after first contact.

0.57 I'm not an expert in defence, but that looks like Farrell just rushed up for no good reason, and didn't even block the player he was rushing from going past him.

1.20. By my eye that's Lawes' man to clear, doesn't get close.  There again, if he's supporting his own bodyweight...

4.24 2nd turnover pen. Itoje had just carried, Launch has just put in a big hit in the previous ruck, and Cole was present there, yet launch is the first man to support the next one too (Watson carry). Launch has no pace to hit it with, Lawes comes in at pace but has no effect, Itoje is behind the other two, not much to do. And Cole comes around to look at it. Where are the rest of the pack? Could be argued that the tackler prevented a good clearout, but Launch was never in a position to hit it hard enough, and it didn't seem to stop Lawes.

5.47 I'm not sure why Lawes wasn't awarded that penalty (by the standards so far), but I can't give him 5, and can only give him 3.

6.19 I've no idea how Owens judges the ruck.  How he felt Robshaw was supporting his own weight there, yet Lawes in the previous one wasn't a good bet?  Seems like supporting weight isn't important, just if you can hold onto the ball for a long time.

7.50ish? That maul was awful.  Something in the heavily trained excuse?

8.07 surely that's not the shape our defensive line is supposed to be?  Hughes and Hartley well behind.

We just look tired, missing tackles we really shouldn't be.

10.14 Why did Ford call for that ball? It was a bad kick because he was under pressure already.

12.15 I don't really want to give Hartley anything for that. He basically missed, maybe bounced off Itoje, who also failed to shift the player. Thankfully we got the pen for supposedly not releasing. Hands were on the ground anyway. I do like that Farrell ran it up, he keeps adding to his attack, even if he's not a Manu or a Teo, it'll help.

18.19 Was that Ford or Farrell kicking? Needed to find touch. We're getting schooled in the kicking game. What happened to our tactical kicking against Wales?

22.31 Launch wasn't paying attention there, he assumed Mako was in front, so he wouldn't be hit, but with Watson lying sideways, he's arugably aprt of the gate.

23.44 Giving Robshaw a turnover there, even though we came back to the advantage.

26.15 or so, why do we just let the scots play with quick ball?  Hughes finally forces the turnover by holding the player up, and interfering with him trying to pass the ball off.

28 less said about that Brown pass the bett.. worse, what the hell was that? He's then being mr angry to his team mates.

29.48 Digby has already pointed this out, but the scottish openside (the 6 this time) at the scrum gets off, tackles Ford, get's back to his feet, and then Robshaw arrives and fails to shift him.  This is what we have Haskell for.

30.46 Blatant neck crank on Farrell there.

33.58 I've just found all of Itoje's yards :). I'm not giving Brown points for doing something a mile away from the actual ruck and giving away the pen, killing our best attacking ball yet.

35 Launch wraps up the ball in that maul and wins us the turnover.

36.27 repeat feature when going wide from a set piece is Robshaw arriving a second too late to actually be useful.

36.37 Launch has just been involved in the previous breakdown, Robshaw carries, Itoje just lies down on one of the tighthead, and is out of the ruck, the 6 locks in, and Care has a little go, then Launch has come around to hit him hard, but he's locked in already (so only scores a 1).  If we're insisting on pods of two, the support has to be far more accurate than Itoje was.

So, we reckon anything will happen from the face scratch on Hughes?

37.24  Hughes fails to get close enough to Huw Jones, but he has a go, Farrell just sort of watches it happen.

End half.

--------------------------


40.47 Itoje just basically misses the ruck again, no excuses, thankfully Cole actually puts in a half decent hit.

41.10 Launch is turning into a good solid carrier. A few rucks ago he was given the ball with 2 defenders and still managed to make a yard, with better ball he makes yards.

41.32 How is that not hands in the ruck, coming around the side etc etc???


Really enjoy Farrell attacking more himself, very nice for the try.  Been very poor in defence though.

46.43 Launch does what he's told, Referee doesn't like that Laidlaw throws a bad pass.

49.10ish. Lawes keeps trying to be a flanker on defensive breakdowns, but he's just not very good at getting the body position (and its not really his fault).

50.54 Farrell dive or taken off the ball badly?

59 something. Pen goes against Launch, but it was Cole driving through early.

Thoughts at this point (because that's when I'm thinking them). Robshaw is doing a huge amount of work, but he's just not fast enough to be an openside, stick him at 6 and play someone else at 7.  Lawes is too tall to be a backrow.  He just isn't effective enough in the breakdown due to his height and frame.  I don't know if Launch is just lucky this game, but he has a lot of 2s because he's often first man there, he's not pacy, and I'm not suggesting he should be 6/7 in the slightest, but he does seem to read the game well.  Itoje really needs to work on his breakdown, he just lacks the accuracy required, not something he'll lose headlines, or gain headlines for, but required for England to do well. Hartley hits a lot of rucks, but he doesn't go chasing them as such, right place right time kind of thing.  Cole is like a lesser version of Hartley, where he looks out for something to do even less, and is quite grateful if there's a breakdown close enough for him to rest a hand on or get into guard for. May hits rucks hard! OK, he's normally up against other backs, but by god he smashes them.

63.50 What was Lawes thinking when he steps on the ball and out of the SH hands?

67.23 Whats the plan here? We have to assume Farrell is calling for it, he's extremely deep, wastes time worrying about his left to right pass, has to do something else, and gives it to Nowell to try and resuce him.

70.00 How doesn't Owens give the penalty against England there?

70.25ish, Launch again manages to make a yard or two after contact. He's never going to be a Hughes or a BillyV, but his all round game now is right up there.

70.46 I don't know what it is with Farrell.  He never seems to be quick enough to throw the pass he wants to, but thankfully he seems to realise he's missed his chance, and chooses differently. Quick hands there sees Williams make a good carry, but it needs a good accurate pass, Farrell doesn't take it, and gives it to Launch who does well considering (yard or two after contact).

70.58  Why does Marler just give him a cuddle? Another ruck taht could have easily been a pen against us.

74.18 Surely tackle complete and he can't eget back up?

76.25 Another ruck that could have easily been a pen against us. Kruis manages to hit it just about hard eough to stop it. Then 76.35 we get lucky not to be done for blocking (Itoje has the cheek to complain about being tackled off the ball).

77.26ish. Marler has now put in repeatedly poor clearouts, just isn't getting any force into it, and just sort of pirouhettes around the jackaller. Has another at the last ruck of the game.

Quote from: RodneyRegis
I've sorted by ruck marks per 10 rucks, to show actual effectiveness hitting rucks.

Here is ruck marks per 10 mins (right hand column):

Code: [Select]
D A T M RM/M M/RM RM/10 min
Marler 24 0 24 11 2.182 0.458 21.8
Williams 31 0 31 15 2.067 0.484 20.7
Kruis 13 0 13 8 1.625 0.615 16.3
George 33 0 33 24 1.375 0.727 13.8
Robshaw 56 33 89 80 1.113 0.899 11.1
Underhill 22 0 22 25 0.880 1.136 8.8
Launch 59 3 62 72 0.861 1.161 8.6
Itoje 52 16 68 80 0.850 1.176 8.5
Cole 37 16 53 65 0.815 1.226 8.2
Lawes 37 23 60 80 0.750 1.333 7.5
Hartley 33 6 39 56 0.696 1.436 7.0
Hughes 23 1 24 55 0.436 2.292 4.4
Mako 17 6 23 69 0.333 3.000 3.3


Quote from: RodneyRegis
And then with other involvements - positive involvements per 10 minutes
Code: [Select]
T M Net P10M
Kruis 13 8 13 16.3
Williams 31 15 24 16.0
Marler 24 11 15 13.6
George 33 24 28 11.7
Robshaw 89 80 65 8.1
Launch 62 72 55 7.6
Itoje 68 80 53 6.6
Underhill 22 25 15 6.0
Hughes 24 55 32 5.8
Lawes 60 80 46 5.8
Hartley 39 56 31 5.5
Cole 53 65 33 5.1
Mako 23 69 34 4.9


Obvious issues is this doesn't distinguish between someone doing a lot of nothing at rucks, compared to someone maybe hitting less, but being useful.  Still overall paints a slightly clearer picture. Even some 1s are useful, but I'd think another measure removing all 1s, or a ratio of 1s vs everything else might make things a bit clearer too. Being a post during a box kick is fine, but if you're only doing that all game, you're not shifting your weight.

Unsurprisingly the subs tend to have higher numbers in a lot of circumstances. I'm not sure if Underhills minutes have been adjusted for his 10 minute break.

We'd also need to look at something like if someone makes positive yardage after contact, or passes the gainline in phase play, since not every carry is equal (that still wouldn't show everything, but it would be more than simply Carries, or Meters Made).

In addition I don't believe this includes lineout takes or steals, which should be recorded somewhere.  If someone has been a lifter that's another issue too, but there's only so much we can reasonably do :D.

Obviously a time breakdown of the rucks (I could have done it to a degree actually, not too difficult) could allow us to see what sort of ratio players are carrying vs supporting.  For example Lawes made 10 carries and hit 19 attacking rucks in 80 minutes, and a total of 123 attacking rucks (according to ESPN). So he'd have had 113 attacking rucks which were in effect available to him. Robshaw made 17 carries and.... I've fucked up the ruck marks a little, there should never be a 5 in the attacking column, but it's misplaced, rather than a double record I believe, since I awarded Robshaw two 5s. Any way, 106 attacking rucks, and he was involved in 23 (assuming my records aren't too far out!!!).  Obviously there's only so many rucks to hit, and only so much hitting required (we required more), but it could give a better idea of players roles and workrate.

Robshaw and Launch's workrates are massively high (as always). Mako is lower than we've seen before, having to be on the pitch for so long seems to be tiring him (fair enough, he's got scrums to do as well). Cole was fine in the rucks seemingly, but not enough anywhere else. Personally I think considering the effectiveness of Hughes' carries, he did OK for someone who's only played 20 minutes in the last few months (and looked knackered after those!).

Final problem for people, how can we effectively combine these ruck marks, along with a 1st/2nd/3rd man to the ruck statistic?  Remembering that sometimes the first man is ineffective, and it's the 2nd man who smashes it etc, 1st is good, but not always the be all and end all.

Brandnewtorugby

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2018, 10:06:51 AM »
I think there have been similar problems in football, players learn how to increase their statistical scores to the detriment of effectiveness e.g. passes made high, but never creating any threat. To some extent it is hard to blame them, when you see how the press and keyboard warriors pounce e.g. Cippriani getting charged down attempting a chip over.

I'd like to have a think about your last comment, but don't understand ruck marks enough. How are the ruck mark scores given?

You are asking for ideas on how to build in arrival at the ruck accounting for how the role of the arriving player changes as the ruck develops? Some sort of weighting maybe? Or somehow split the ruck marks into early or late arrival?

Raggs

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2018, 07:46:35 PM »
Ruck marks comes from this: https://dementedmole.com/2013/10/30/ruck-marks/

Basically a grading of how effective a player is at each breakdown.

RodneyRegis also did a ruck marks per 10 rucks average, which gives a nicer picture of effectiveness.

The other problem, even with all these stats, is that they don't show the work off the ball.  For example, if the attacking team grubber a ball through, the defender on the far side of the pitch may sprint 20m back and 30m across, to form part of a potential defensive line, but the attacking side knock it on, and we never find out what would have happened had they secured the ball, or if the defending team had got it and distributed across to him.  A lot of hard work and intelligent effort, that will never appear in any meaningful way in the stats.  But that's something good coaches of course will look for.

Raggs

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2018, 10:37:21 AM »
Final bit, ruck effectiveness per 10 rucks.

Robshaw 23.42
Hartley 21.67
Itoje 20.61
Launch 20
Hughes 20
Cole 18.93
Lawes 18.75
Mako 15.33

Now personally I'd say that you'd hope to see 20+ (i.e. no worse than a solid guard on average for each one, and presents being offset by hits and more), but a solid 20 could also reflect being first man to every ruck, and then not getting counter-rucked off. Below 20 and in my opinion there's a few too many presents, or ineffective clearouts.

Mako had a bad game I reckon, he looked completely shagged, and probably knew he was playing a lot of it.

Trevs Big Tackle

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2018, 10:46:23 AM »
I wonder how those numbers compare to the scots backrow from that game. In isolation the numbers seem okay but we were destroyed at the breakdown.

Raggs

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2018, 10:51:38 AM »
Mako's numbers are a long way from what you'd want from a loosehead, even one primarily tasked with carrying (and even with that, you'd have hoped for better carrying numbers).  Lawes' numbers are awful considering he was playing backrow and not lock.

Robshaw was busy, but often too late.

Going to record when players are first to the breakdown for the France game, as that is more important and useful than putting in a big clearout after the ball has been slowed for a few seconds.

Vespula Vulgaris

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2018, 05:05:17 PM »
Thanks for doing this Raggs, it's fascinating to see some quantitative analysis of the players.
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Trevs Big Tackle

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2018, 09:14:20 AM »
Serge Betsen has slagged off England's backrow selection for the France game, especially given the hammering by Scotland:

http://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/43337262

The article includes this shocking statement:

Quote
Over the first three rounds of the 2018 tournament, England have the worst success rate of all the Six Nations sides at the ruck.

Something needs to change. Can the players adapt or should the selection have changed?

Vespula Vulgaris

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2018, 07:02:05 AM »
I think we can safely say the players can't adapt.

Though I'm struggling to understand EJ's thought processes.
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Raggs

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2018, 07:10:44 AM »
I'll be doing ruck marks for the France game.

It's a tough one, if the players are being worked extremely hard in camp, to raise their fitness, then they'll look flat, and that's OK, Edide has always said it's about the world cup.  But some of the thinking just doesn't fit for me, the main one being Lawes at 6.  I'd also question Cole, but need to see the ruck marks before commenting further.

Brandnewtorugby

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2018, 08:03:25 AM »
Hope Nathan is ok, although his reaction punching at the floor was almost identical to Eastmond when he tore his achilles. As if he knows it is going to be a while.

At least three times Launchbury carried into contact and then got turned over, I wondered if he got unlucky or if the fact he couldn't be there clearing out that was he problem.

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2018, 09:32:18 AM »
Every time Launch got turned over, one of the big French guys accidentally fell between Launch and his support. By the time he was out of the way, Launch was turned over.

It shows what was evident a fortnight ago. Shouldering directly into contact on your own, clearly an Eddie tactic, will get you turned over. You need at least one, if not two, supporting team mates at your side to drive you through.

Watch that tackle breakdown through the game and you will see that France do it over and over again. They may have been pinged a couple of times for it. Scotland and Ireland do exactly the same. If you are stupid enough to deliberately go into contact where you are likely to be tackled by more than one player, expect to get turned over or pinged for holding on. If your coach is stupid enough to make it part of the game plan, then you will probably lose.

Even worse was that 9/10 axis that so many have said was tired and out of ideas. It was just that. Eddie may have turned the team around, but what he has ended up with is little better than what he started with. Nice to know he has signed a contract extension.

With only a few days to the next match, aside from replacing any injured players, like Nathan, I cannot see his has much wriggle room to change tactics. I can see England being mullered by Ireland.

Raggs

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2018, 09:38:06 AM »
As I've said, if the players are generally knackered due to being worked very hard, then a lot of what are currently problems, will improve purely by players being fresher. The only ones that really stand out are Lawes, who's shown no ability to work a the breakdown as a 6 should (though perhaps could/should get in as a lock), and Wigglesworth, who whilst I can understand that logic in picking to some degree, just seems like a rod that Eddie has created for himself.

It wouldn't necessarily take a lot for these losses to be wins, just as it wouldn't have taken a lot for some of the past wins to be losses.  If the players are knackered, and Eddie is working them to improve for the rwc, then fine.  If they are no more tired than some of their opposition, then it's a lot more worrying.

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2018, 11:03:00 AM »
If the players are knackered, and Eddie is working them to improve for the rwc, then fine.

Do you seriously believe this is going to work?? Surely if the players are knackered then they should be rested not worked more. This means of course that a different team will go to SA.
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Raggs

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Re: Ruck marks, workrates, notes on the England game.
« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2018, 12:00:44 PM »
If the players are knackered, and Eddie is working them to improve for the rwc, then fine.

Do you seriously believe this is going to work?? Surely if the players are knackered then they should be rested not worked more. This means of course that a different team will go to SA.

I don't know, but the S&C guy seems to believe it.  If you wanted to get the best single performance out of them, then yes, you'd rest them, but if you want them to continue to get fitter and stronger, you'll keep working them (albeit likely varying the routine, so no single muscle group is worked to destruction).