Why England will win the World Cup [maybe]

[backdoc]

Or, why Eddie Jones is the best coach:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UDmoKBPg_Y

[mike909]

Hi Backdoc - this has been in circulation for a while and it's not so much been dismantled - but questioned as more of Squidge fitting an idea to the vids available.

England can win the RWC due to  - just like last w/e - being able to pick from a deep pool of ugly forwards, having a great kicking team from hand and tee and excellent set piece.

But having looked at the new attacking plan that England are supposed to be trying to implement - it does to this fan seem rather like the formation that Wasps used under the same attack coach...No surprises there. And to make that work probably requires England to be more imaginative in their selection at back three and back row than has been evident.

It was also interesting to listen to The Rugby analyst on YT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x93atx9tPPI

[backdoc]

Thanks Mike.

The bed of Procrustes seemed to be Eddie's selection method.

Or has Eddie started to move away from this with his selections of JVP at 9, and some pace in the outside backs?

I liked the presentation mostly for the history of Eddie at the Brumbies - I used to obsessively watch the superrugby in the 90's and always wanted the Brumbies to beat the NZ teams because of their backs and their style, without necessarily understanding the innovations employed, or their source.

[mike909]

It's a hard one to know what's going on - The key issues that RA noted - as did many people - it that the 6Ns selection was without pace and without gain line threats and as predicted that resulted in a blunt attack - max one try a game (except Italy) But we seemed to be being told England were using the 6Ns as part of the development of a new way of playing.....Not an easy sell to me, anyway!

But having seen the first game in Oz, and Squidge suggesting the two first receiver formation was part of the "new" I had seen what the RA had said - and it occurred to me that's what we did with Gleeson and Jimmy at 12. Looking at several 2019/20 games again (well the extended highlights!) and that's what we were doing.

Now my view is that it's really good at club level with one way of playing an lots of practice time. And when we were going well that season we had pace and a pack able in wider channels.

England seem to have got caught in trying to do something similar - but picking slow out players and big but slow backrowers....

The main change last game was to revert to "ugly pack" narrow play and kick. Still with a large backrow and mostly slow outside backs

So I really don't know where England are going - and I don't think they are. and yes - this week's selection was justified by the win and nothing more!

[Shugs]

What I find very alarming is the effect Jones has had on Englands own fans. Of course there are always plenty who will turn up but I’ve never spoken to so many people who are just no longer enthused. It’s a combination of dull play, baffling selection and the fact that Jones himself seems to go out if his way to be petulant and childish.

[westwaleswasp]

Biggest reason why England might win the WC is France, SA, NZ and Ire are all on the other side of the draw and knocking each other out until we hit the semis. A bit like SA last time, lying in wait until we had theoretically gone through  Arg/Fra/Aus/NZ, the WC is much easier if  you have an easier route. 

[hopwood]

There are some very interesting insights from that video…which must have taken weeks to prepare.
I’ve softened my approach to Farrell recently….but I think he needs Smith as a counter-balance.
If the two of them can work together and play heads up rugby, things could get more exciting.

However, the one thing that strikes me by all that analysis is just how much the players’ brains must get blitzed over a short training camp of a few days.
They’re effectively been given a whole new playbook to learn, away from their clubs.
You can see why the likes of Umaga, Robson, Paulo etc have come back to the club at times…and have got way too much going on in their heads, looking rather shell-shocked.
Finding it hard to adapt back to a slightly more simplified version of the game.

I don’t know if Eddie’s obsessive way of attacking can peak over a few weeks in 2023. But it must be exhausting to be around at the training camp, that level of detail.
Yes, it takes a lot to win internationally. But is Eddie trying to be almost too clever?

And there seem to be years where the fans have to watch drivel as he’s stirring his magic potion in the background.
It’s almost as if he doesn’t want anyone else to know what’s going on…other than for the knockout stages every 4 years.
And yet this is an entertainment business.
So, from my point of view…England seem to be driven purely by Eddie’s (ego-driven) desire to win ‘his’ World Cup…and damned to the fans that pay all the money for 95% of the rest of the time.

I don’t know. Yes, it would be great to hold aloft the Cup.
But boy, it feels quite a turgid 4 years for everybody trying to get there.

[DGP Wasp]

What I find very alarming is the effect Jones has had on Englands own fans. Of course there are always plenty who will turn up but I’ve never spoken to so many people who are just no longer enthused. It’s a combination of dull play, baffling selection and the fact that Jones himself seems to go out if his way to be petulant and childish.

That's my observation as well.  Not just myself, but so many other English rugby supporters.  An England international just doesn't generate the same excitement as it once did, and I think you've hit the nail on the head in terms of the cause of the increasing disinterest.

Personally, my indifference stems from the fact that while I still have a heartfelt desire for England to win, the disappointment of losing is softened by the consolation that each defeat is a step closer to the door for Eddie.

[mike909]

What I find very alarming is the effect Jones has had on Englands own fans. Of course there are always plenty who will turn up but I’ve never spoken to so many people who are just no longer enthused. It’s a combination of dull play, baffling selection and the fact that Jones himself seems to go out if his way to be petulant and childish.

That's my observation as well.  Not just myself, but so many other English rugby supporters.  An England international just doesn't generate the same excitement as it once did, and I think you've hit the nail on the head in terms of the cause of the increasing disinterest.

Personally, my indifference stems from the fact that while I still have a heartfelt desire for England to win, the disappointment of losing is softened by the consolation that each defeat is a step closer to the door for Eddie.

+1

I've really not felt enthused by England since 2017 and in the RWC - where - Jones' team were the victim of his limited focus. It's like his win over SA when with Japan, they won the game but SA got out of the group.....When England beat NZ they then never looked in the Final......

And as Shugs noted - the dull play being sold as "solid progress" by the RFU and the selections that promote blunt play....

I've really enjoyed following the other NH teams over the summer - I have Welsh family - and really like the way Wales looked in SA - on top of their game plan and understanding their play.....England in Test 1 looked like they were trying to play some fantasy system and lost to 14 and the injured and won this week by reverting to basic dull rugby and still nearly threw it away. Regardless of the result - we've played one really good game in two seasons vs France in 2021 6Ns - and why we're not trying to play like that is a mystery - least to me! And were terrible a week later vs Ireland.

[Bloke in North Dorset]

The video makes a compelling argument for Eddie's methods, but I'm not convinced it is what rugby in England needed or rugby fans want or at least this rugby fan wants and judging by comments on here and elsewhere I don't feel lonely.

Japan was an aspiring nation and slowly building a name for itself but wanted to move faster. Going a number of games without winning in order to make a big splash at the world cup was a good strategy and the patience paid off. They've attracted international talent and built a good domestic league and Japan is now considered a rugby nation and worthy of a seat at the top table.

England is a different proposition. We had a good domestic league and more importantly a good annual regional competition that was only a little less prestigious to win than the WC. Yes we'd had a dreadful WC but we were still a rugby nation with a seat at the top table and players that could hold their own internationally.

Winning the WC will be good for the game and is something I think we'd all like to see, my problem is that the journey might do more harm than winning the WC does good and we get left in a net negative position.

I'd like to know if TPTB signed up to this we don't care how many games we lose on the way, its only the WC that counts strategy?

And what happens if this strategy doesn't work? What happens if they have a shocking game and don't qualify or get knocked out in the QF? As it stands it will be an absolute disaster, four wasted years and a complete loss of interest in rugby in England.

I'd rather we were playing to win the 6N every year as well as all AIs and summer tours. If that means we're perennially getting knocked out in the QF and SF of the WC, so be it, but I don't think that would happen. Winning sides are better sides and more likely to make it the final.

[baldpaul101]

Winning sides are better sides and more likely to make it the final.

But the problem is, that just isn't the case. Much as I wish it was.
France, Wales & Ireland have all looked great leading up to world cups & none have won anything. Only France has made it to a final & tbf, they didn't look great in the lead up to it.
At the last RWC SA didn't look very good before & even during the competition but won.

[Bloke in North Dorset]

Winning sides are better sides and more likely to make it the final.

But the problem is, that just isn't the case. Much as I wish it was.
France, Wales & Ireland have all looked great leading up to world cups & none have won anything. Only France has made it to a final & tbf, they didn't look great in the lead up to it.
At the last RWC SA didn't look very good before & even during the competition but won.

Fair points, but I’d  still rather watch regular wins than losses in the hope of winning the WC. We’ve only won it once and that was on the back of fortress Twickenham.

[baldpaul101]

but I’d  still rather watch regular wins than losses in the hope of winning the WC.

Don't disagree with you!

[Vespula Vulgaris]

Winning sides are better sides and more likely to make it the final.

But the problem is, that just isn't the case. Much as I wish it was.
France, Wales & Ireland have all looked great leading up to world cups & none have won anything. Only France has made it to a final & tbf, they didn't look great in the lead up to it.
At the last RWC SA didn't look very good before & even during the competition but won.

But when we won it, we were #1 in the rankings and favourites to win. We are still the only NH team to win it, and when we did we were a side that didn't know how not to win.

[westwaleswasp]

France have made 3 finals. They were quite strong on the lead up to two. In 2009 they drew their away series in NZ 1-1. Granted their 6n form was a bit iffy - if you call second in 2011 with 3 wins and the  2010 Grand Slam iffy prior to 2011. In 1987 they won the Grand Slam prior to the final.

England were indeed ranked 1 going into 2003, and Aus 3rd.
Pretty sure 1991 England were Slam winners before finishing runners up. NZ were ranked 1st going into 2015 and 2011. It is certainly true that some mediocre teams have succeeded, but also some bloody good ones.

SA of course changed coach mid cycle after some poor results. Instead of that we put out a piece on 'best with rate of an England coach', which included all the now quite commonplace matches against non 6n/RC teams.