Rumours grow in strength

[Vespula Vulgaris]

This popped up in my news feed this morning. I don't normally pay much attention to the mail  and there is little new. But for a major outlet to focus on it is worrying.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/article-6464263/amp/Elliot-Daly-set-lead-Wasps-exodus-Nathan-Hughes-Willie-le-Roux-heading-exits.html

[NellyWellyWaspy]

Add to the 'story' that Elliot's missus works at Sarries ....

[Brandnewtorugby]

It seems sad if they are going and they are all great players and done great things for Wasps. From a team point of view I wonder if it would be terrible though. With the time away and injuries it almost feels like they come back for the odd cameo, showing some of their trademark magic with long kicks, bullocking runs or lovely offloads before going back to their national camp. The problem is they also mean we have to shuffle the side to fit them all in and then they go off again and we shuffle the side back again. This year with Gopperth's injury and two new fly halfs it has seemed almost disruptive at times when they came back. Despite the narrative, we do have new players coming through or into the side. Perhaps freeing up the salary from Hughes, Daly and WLR enables us to build a bigger squad with like for like cover that can cope with injuries a little better?

[Vespula Vulgaris]

I think we're all resigned to the fact the Willie is going.  I'll be sad to see him go as he adds something special to the team when he is in it.  It took him a whil eto settle in but good God he has proved his worth time and time again.  A player with his ability and unselfish nature is a true rarity.  But...  he was always likely to be off.

Daly would be a real shame.  He has a lot of talent, has been part of Wasps for a long time, and his ability to punish teams with penalties from up to 60m is a wonderful thing to have on the team.

But.

He doesn't have a defined place in the squad.  He hasn't ever really shone at 15 and currently wouldn't be first choice there.  He's pretty good on the wing, but most people would have picked Wade and basset as our first choices before him.  Now with Neal and possibly Campagnaro we won't miss him much there.  Which leaves 13.  That's where I'd play him out of preference, but he certainly ahsn't shone for a while.  Perhaps that is down to morale and should be taken as a sign that he really is off.  But JdJ plays his best rugby at 13 too, and while he doesn't have Daly's boot, he is no real step down defensively or with the ball in hand.

So I'd be sad if Daly left, but not devastated.

Hughes on the other hand is a different matter.

When Billy left we knew we were screwed.  A top class 8 who hit like a freight train and had hands like a centre.  Then we got Hughes and he was even bigger, ran just as direct, and if anything hit even harder.  He had an ability to spot a weakness in a ruck and run straight through it.  He was a genuine revelation.  It took about a season for other teams to figure him out, but they did.  They threw defenders at him in numbers to bring him down, and even then didn't always manage it.  But simply by being in the line it meant the defenders' minds were alway partly on him.  The threat he posed meant that gaps opened up all over the place.  I genuinely credit a lot of our attacking success down to the no nonsense hard hitting power of Hughes.

Losing him would be massive.  We have a lot of great back rows in the club, and I can see him going partly because of that.  But while some are more evasive, some are faster, some are better at stealing the ball, some are better in the lineout.  None have his power and ingrained self belief that he can simply run right over the top of whoever happens to get in his way.  We've been saying our pack needs more edge to it.  He is where all of our edge is right now and if we lose him we will deeply regret it.

[wasps]

Absolutely VV.
As soon as Nathan is out for any period of time, we notice a total lack of power/penetration from the forwards

Don't get me wrong, we have some good carriers in the pack, but there's a difference between being a ball carrier and being powerful.
If we lose Nathan, I feel that we would want another power option to replace him.

I sometimes wonder though if Nathan is completely aware of all the laws of the breakdown. So often he gets pinged and looks at the ref in disbelief. Admittedly, sometimes he does appear to be in the right, or at least close enough that it's a judgement call.
But sometimes he's so wrong that I wonder if on the heat of the moment, in the middle of a ruck, he's naturally aware of the laws and what's going on around him, or if he has to consciously think about it.
It wouldn't be a surprise. He didn't really play rugby at a young age like most professionals, so maybe some of the law complexities don't come naturally.
Either that, or he's just continually trying to push the boundaries

[Vespula Vulgaris]

I'm really struggling to understand the utter ambivalence towards Hughes over at DW.  I genuinely don't understand how people can see that Wade created space for others simply by being on the pitch, but Hughes doesn't...

[Raggs]

Hughes understands the laws, but he seems to struggle to listen to the ref/team mates yelling at him, so those 50/50s can go against him.

It's a tough one for me. On good form, Hughes is extremely useful, however when not on form (which can happen often), he's not necessarily any more useful than Carr/Willis (who bring their own alternative strengths).

I'd rather keep him, but the cap is the cap, and if we can't match an offer, then that's it.

[wasps]

I believe the rumour is that Bristol are offering £500k
Obviously, we don't know what he's on at the moment, but we do know that he's previously said something along the lines that representing England is a big deal for him not just to play international rugby, but also the money that will help him and his family here and back home.
Given how many players are having their careers shortened, and how regularly he's getting injured, I can totally understand him wanting to get as much money in as possible in a short'ish space of time.

We're supposedly up to the cap already, and it's not increasing next year, so the only way to increase his salary would be to cut someone (or more than one) from the squad.
Unfortunately, it's not that easy. Ambrose Curtis would be high on that list given that he hasn't been involved, but he's under contract so doesn't free us up any cap space.... Wade has gone though and he was probably earning a fair amount.... however we need to replace him as well


It really is a numbers game now, and we seem to be struggling in a way that Saracens aren't.
They have the likes of Mako, Billy, George, Koch, Skelton, Itoje, Kruis, Burger, Farrell, Williams, Bosch. These are all internationals and/or Lions players.
Some may be at the end of their careers so may not be on top dollar, but none of them will be cheap.
If I look at our squad, we have Mullan, Launchbury, Shields, Hughes, Sopoaga, Jimmy, Daly, JdJ, WlR as our experienced tier1 internationals (stretching it a bit with Shields). On the face of it, Sarries should be struggling a lot more with the salary cap than we are.


However, I wonder if a number of our players had financial incentives for staying with us through the Adams Park times, or maybe for moving to Coventry with us.
It could be that the likes of Simmo, Daly, Launchbury, Johnson (previously Wade) and maybe Mullan, Hughes, JCW etc are all on higher salaries than you may expect due to helping us survive, and staying with us through the move.


There's so many unknowns in player contracts that it's hard to know where we stand with other clubs.
Maybe we've made a rod for our own backs by paying superstars big sums of money to play for us. The other players that stick with us feel that they want a piece now too.


While we're feeling the effects at the moment, it can only be shortlived if the salary cap is adhered to.
Everyone will be hitting the cap so will need to trim their squads as well if they wish to sign the likes of Hughes and Daly from other clubs.
In a short space of time, all the clubs will be stuck or will end up having smaller squads

[Vespula Vulgaris]

I Nathan leaves it won't be because of money.

He could be a Marquee player for us, but he could not be for any other Premiership team. If he does go to Bristol then that is a big chunk out of their cap money.

Assuming that Lima is one Marquee currently, then the other space could well be Nathan's next season. Especially if Wille leaves.

I think Nathan at his best offers something that no other backrow in the squad does, and as such we should strive to keep him.

[NellyWellyWaspy]

I think Joe Launchbury has the home talent marquee spot, so, no, Nathan cannot be that.

And yes, WLR probably has the overseas marquee spot, and Fekitoa will probably have that for next year.

Both marquee places taken, no room for Nathan.

[Vespula Vulgaris]

I think Joe Launchbury has the home talent marquee spot, so, no, Nathan cannot be that.

And yes, WLR probably has the overseas marquee spot, and Fekitoa will probably have that for next year.

Both marquee places taken, no room for Nathan.

I very much doubt WLR has it this season.  And I see no reason why Joe should have it over Nathan.  The club don't release salaries, and they don't release who the Marquee players are, so it's all speculation.  If we need to pay Nathan more than Joe then he becomes the Marquee.  No-one ever needs to find out.

[Raggs]

I strongly suspect that Joe is on a good sum, Nathan clearly isn't on £500k. Moving Nathan to Marquee means taking Joe off, and I doubt Joe is on less than £500k, seeing as we've chased Sarries off repeatedly.

[RBB]

I do think there is no smoke without fire, however I always try to think about what drives these sorts of rumours. If you recall last season for example Josh Bassett and Joe Launchbury were leaving according to media reports, both stayed and continue to be key parts of the squad - so rumours or hearsay don't always come to fruition. Secondly you have to question the behaviour of agents or advisors and what their motivations are and why stories are started in the first place - I believe that community of people are the 'reliable sources'.

With regard the main 3 players in the spotlight, I do think all 3 will leave. WLR back to Japan or Super Rugby, Elliott has a desire to return south and Nathan is looking for more money than Wasps are prepared to pay him. They have all been good players but sports teams evolve, and change can have surprisingly positive effects, take Ross Neal for example (yes it is early days) but that is a change we may not have wished for but most of us are pleasantly surprised with what we have seen,

[wasps]

In 2004, Dai referred to Joe as the crown jewel, and that we'd do everything in our power to get him to sign a new contract, which he did. It's a fair assumption that made him our non-overseas marquee. salaries were a bit lower in 2004, so maybe he was offered £300-£400k to sign on and lead our move to Coventry.
Unfortunately, that contract is likely due up for renewal now or soon, and you can't imagine he'd want less than Nathan.
Even making Nathan the marquee and moving Joe under the cap doesn't really change the numbers that much.


As for the overseas marquee, my guess is that it's either Lima, Brad or JdJ this year, depending who is earning the most.
I think that when WlR joined, we already had an overseas marquee player, so Willie is presumably in the cap. The highest profile overseas signing after Willie was JdJ, so he was probably the marquee player for a while, but that may now be Lima or Brad


(All guesswork though)

[Raggs]

Willie joined whilst Beale was still with us I believe? So Beale was likely the overseas signing.

Brad was rumoured to be £350k, Lima £650k, he'll be the overseas now I guess.

Mullan, McIntyre and even JCW I could all say goodbye to (JCW would hurt a bit), if it means West and Stuart get more and more game time. Stuart is supposedly rumoured to be off as well, if he goes, then I'm worried.