Who are the main candidates for relegation?

[SteveTodd]

I'm new to following rugby, so I have no deep knowledge to help my reasoning, so I thought that any responses on this thread might educate me and give me a deeper insight.

There was a relegation market, and it was featured on the oddschecker website, but since the 35 point deduction to Saracens was announced, no bookies are advertising their odds, presumably because Saracens are appealing the points deduction, which destroys the relegation market as it won't be certain until deep into the season.

But last week the best odds were about:

11/8 London Irish
15/8 Worcester
8/1 Bristol
14/1 Wasps
14/1 Leicester
16/1 Bath
33/1 bar

I thought that the odds would reflect a very open relegation market, rather than have two clubs at very short odds. There were a couple of things that confused me:

Why were Bristol with their reasonable start to the season so low at 8/1?
Why were London Irish and Worcester so much shorter than the others?

Is it because they do not have large squads (so might suffer greater from injuries during the course of the season) and/or less returning international players from the world cup? Or are there other factors at play?

I had hoped that Saracens with a 35 point deduction might be dragged into the relegation fight, but after their away win at Gloucester, I am not as hopeful as I was originally. Any views on this?

Also if things turned bad and it ended up being Wasps, other teams have survived being relegated and returned to the premier league. is there any reason to think that Wasps could not do that? I am asking this because I read when they were in relegation trouble in the past, they were in danger of disappearing, is there anything different now to be more optimistic, if the worst actually happened?

[HDAWG]

In terms of coaching, players, last season etc. I think these are main contenders for relegation:

- Worcester

- Leicester

- Wasps

- London Irish

- Bristol

- Bath

It's very open, and if we're not careful we'll be very much in mix. I originally thought Worcester, but they beat Quin's the other day which I didn't see coming.

Also consistency is all over the shop at the moment. As mentioned with Worcester, but look at Bath being spanked by Bristol and then beating Exeter? Who saw that coming?

[Rossm]

Also consistency is all over the shop at the moment. As mentioned with Worcester, but look at Bath being spanked by Bristol and then beating Exeter? Who saw that coming?

And of course we beat Bath but they beat Saints, up until yesterday, unbeaten.

[backdoc]

14/1 looks very attractive after four games.

[Shugs]

Main candidates are feasibly everyone outside of Ex, Sarries (assuming deduction gets reduced), and possibly Glaws. The rest of it is a quagmire of anyone being able to beat anyone else.

[SteveTodd]

Reply to:
Main candidates are feasibly everyone outside of Ex, Sarries (assuming deduction gets reduced), and possibly Glaws. The rest of it is a quagmire of anyone being able to beat anyone else.

Yes I can see that, so why are London Irish and Worcester much shorter odds?

[wasps]

Irish and Worcester have typically been in relegation battles for a number of seasons, with Irish recently returning to the league.
That's why they're the bookies favourites for the drop.

However, no one is guaranteed to stay up. 2 seasons ago, Newcastle were top 4, the following season, not so much.


We've started very poorly and as backdoc suggests, 14/1 would be tempting... But I don't think we'll get relegated.

Most seasons, teams like Leicester, sale, wasps, bath etc will go on a winning streak and move themselves clear of the trouble.
I feel it's less likely to see that from warriors or Irish

[SteveTodd]

That makes sense, as you say nothing is guaranteed, but there is a higher expectation that the other sides will perform better than Irish and the warriors based on recent history rather than just the few matches played this season.

[BG]

The bigger question is - will there be a relegation?

[SteveTodd]

I thought that had been rejected, is it still possible that they increase to 13 teams, with one promotion into the premiership and no team relegated?

According to this link, that plan was rejected:

https://www.skysports.com/rugby-union/news/12321/11797781/gallagher-premiership-structure-unchanged-as-negotiations-cease-for-now

[Shugs]

It got a whole lot more possible with the points deduction.

[Neils]

It got a whole lot more possible with the points deduction.

The points deduction means zilch. They will be in positive points early in the New Year. All it means is they are very unlikely to win the league. So long as their team is fully funded within the cap and no adjustment is made they will roll over every team especially if they partially abandon Europe as McCall said.

[mike909]

McCall is quoted on the BBC that they are not going to unload players

So, we're expected to believe that in this season, the salary cap is enough to pay that many internationals?

[Hymenoptera]

Having watched every game this weekend the best team I saw were LI. They destroyed tigers all over the pitch and with the new additions looked very handy and very powerful.
I have a hunch they wont be relegation fav's. Worc beat quins in a scrappy game, good points but the performance was only OK.
If basing off this weekends performances, I'd have to say Wasp, Tiger and Worc look in trouble.
Problem is Tigers have 6 internationals to come in and change things up...

[Hymenoptera]

McCall is quoted on the BBC that they are not going to unload players

So, we're expected to believe that in this season, the salary cap is enough to pay that many internationals?

By saying they will have to offload would surely be admitting guilt? As they have stressed they have done nothing wrong, the two wont line up.