OT : The New Normal

[backdoc]

I would be surprised if an effective vaccine is developed.

I think it much more likely that the virus attenuates as it mutates and becomes much less harmful to us.

Just my opinion.

[Raggs]

I would be surprised if an effective vaccine is developed.

I think it much more likely that the virus attenuates as it mutates and becomes much less harmful to us.

Just my opinion.

Why surprised?

And why attenuate? And even if a strain does mutate, that's not going to mean all the rest is going away either. To become less dangerous, we'd need it to mutate in a way that's more contagious, less deadly, and still stimulates an immune response that attacks the more deadly version.

[Hymenoptera]

I would be surprised if an effective vaccine is developed.

I think it much more likely that the virus attenuates as it mutates and becomes much less harmful to us.

Just my opinion.

Define effective.
I've had a flu jab and caught the flu, its still considered an effective vaccine.

[Raggs]

I would be surprised if an effective vaccine is developed.

I think it much more likely that the virus attenuates as it mutates and becomes much less harmful to us.

Just my opinion.

Define effective.
I've had a flu jab and caught the flu, its still considered an effective vaccine.

Vaccines don't stop you catching something. They hopefully stop you spreading it. Or hopefully feeling it at all. But the disease can still be in you. Just dealt with quickly.

Flu vaccine is a bad example as there are many different viruses we lump in together as flu.  So far covid 19 has some variety but nothing as great to prevent a single vaccine working. At least as far as we know.

The longer this goes on and the worse the cases levels, the higher the chance than a new strain arises.

[Hymenoptera]

My point was less about the symantecs and more to do with what is classed as effective.
Would 50% be classed effective if coupled with social awareness, masks and improved hygiene routines. This combination strikes me as a good way to control that R number and potentially eradicate it, acknowledging variables yet unknown such as duration of vaccination etc.

[Raggs]

My point was less about the symantecs and more to do with what is classed as effective.
Would 50% be classed effective if coupled with social awareness, masks and improved hygiene routines. This combination strikes me as a good way to control that R number and potentially eradicate it, acknowledging variables yet unknown such as duration of vaccination etc.

Think somewhere around 60-70% is what's required for this virus. So 50% + other measures would probably manage it. If the vaccine only offers temporary protection, an effort would need to be made to do as much of the planet as possible, in as short a time as possible. Possibly stockpile for a while then blitz. And hope that the pro-plague crowd don't stop too many getting the vaccine.

[Hymenoptera]

Given the most of the Luddites in the US think its a conspiracy and will refuse the vaccine it'll be a hard sell and won't benefit society looking to make a major play.  What a mess.

[Heathen]

The rednecks think that they can shoot it!

[Rossm]

Personally, I wouldn't mind too much if there was a bit of a redneck cull in the US. Nasty of me I know, but they can wave their AR15s around as much as they like shouting "2nd Amendment, 2nd amendment" but covid is a difficult target.

PS. Heathen - I was just typing when you were posting

[Shugs]

I think it's going to be one of those things where eventually the bullet just has to be bitten. Lockdown has created a false decline in the disease in order to make throughput in the NHS manageable. That was necessary. But in reality there are only two long term options. A vaccine or herd immunity. There are no certainties for a vaccine. More extensive lockdowns are not economically possible. So at some point we'll just have to go back to normal save for wearing a mask and practising better hand washing.

[Hymenoptera]

NZ proved it can be eradicated, the model isn't easy to replicate. Im not sure there is such thing as herd immunity, that said I have no answers so what do I kow.

[WonkyWasp]

Every time I  see that advert on Wasps Twitter with a head wearing a mask I wonder why a boiled egg in an egg-cup has a Wasp tattoo on its lower half.

[Raggs]

NZ proved it can be eradicated, the model isn't easy to replicate. Im not sure there is such thing as herd immunity, that said I have no answers so what do I kow.

NZ is in a very different situation to much of the world, easy to close borders completely. I know they rely on tourism, but their comparative footfall is very small compared to the UK (especially when you further take into account that many people travel through the UK, even if not visiting, but could infect everyone else on the plane who do get off in the UK).  They may also struggle to keep covid free for the long term, definitely took  the best steps available to them at the time though, very good leadership.

Herd immunity is definitely a possibility, whether through mass infection or vaccination. In the case of this illness, vaccination definitely seems like the more sensible option.

[Hymenoptera]

Given the recent report out of Spain showing only 5% of those infected had any antibodies and reinfection is proven, I dont think there is any herd immunity. Same with vaccine, you can only achieve herd if people take the vaccine and its 100% successful

[Raggs]

Given the recent report out of Spain showing only 5% of those infected had any antibodies and reinfection is proven, I dont think there is any herd immunity. Same with vaccine, you can only achieve herd if people take the vaccine and its 100% successful

Don't think reinfection is proven yet, though looking more likely.

However, vaccines can offer longer resistance than infection in many cases (especially vs some of these mild cases I'd imagine).

Also, you don't need 100% for herd immunity, I think that the percentage for this virus is around 60%, it's not very transmissible when compared to something like measles.

From memory the oxford vaccine was 40% effective, but it may be much more than that with a booster, even if it's just the 40% again, that reaches the 60% (though of course it won't be 100% vaccine coverage).

However, even around 20-25% should start to see a significant effect on the r0 number, so when combined with other measures, should allow us to hit this on the head.