OT : The New Normal

[InBetweenWasp]

Given the recent report out of Spain showing only 5% of those infected had any antibodies and reinfection is proven, I dont think there is any herd immunity. Same with vaccine, you can only achieve herd if people take the vaccine and its 100% successful

Also antibodies looking like an increasingly inaccurate way of determining immunity.  A fair few articles discussing a pretty quick drop-off in antibodies.  Sweden has done some research that suggested immunity is 2x predicted based on antibody testing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53248660

That being said, moving from 5% to 10% immunity (In Spain's case) doesn't really change things much.  Will be interesting to see what happens with NZ, they can't stay closed forever.

[Rifleman Harris]

There is also a second action with some vaccines in that they stimulate T-cells which are longer lasting than antibodies and less specific in their action.  This offers some hope that immunity may be longer lasting than simply looking at the antibody levels. A vaccine is still some way off though.  Ours has just entered accelerated Phase 2b / 3 trials.  The good news is that the trial is happening in the US where there are plenty of opportunities to test the effectiveness!
 

[WonkyWasp]

Could they start at the TTTTTT... op please?

[WonkyWasp]

That was supposed to read 'Start at the Trump'.  Can't think wot went wrong.

[Rossm]

Covfefe?

[WonkyWasp]

Absolutely!!  Thank you!`

[westwaleswasp]

Remember, immunity is acquired not just via antibodies, as pointed out above. T cells are of equal importance. The news of antibody levels dropping  after three months was taken as a serious setback, but if the vaccine produces a strong T cell response alongside the antibodies effective immunity could be acquired for a longer period of time. From what I have read, some of the vaccines in trials are producing promising T cell levels.

People often point out the lack of existing Coronavirus vaccines, but SARS died off before the vaccine research was concluded. 
Given what has been thrown at it, I would be surprised if this were around years without at least a yearly vaccine.

[backdoc]

You could comment on the paucity of effective RNA virus vaccines - polio and measles are probably the only effective ones.

[westwaleswasp]

Fair point, they are not the easiest of things to nail.
I would be interested to see a comparison of resources put into vaccines for various diseases. We certainly plumped a lot into HIV, although I doubt it will equate to what is going to be thrown and currently thrown at Covid. Covid research is a little like the space race, any nation that comes up with a working vaccine first is going to be looking at political benefits.

 I have always had a cynical view that big pharma benefits more financially from developing a treatment course than a vaccine....

[Raggs]

You could comment on the paucity of effective RNA virus vaccines - polio and measles are probably the only effective ones.

Just checking from a list on google, so I could be very wrong.

Rabies, Influenza A + B, yellow fever, Ebola (that one's recent), hep A, mumps, etc etc.

You do tend to find that you only get a vaccine when it's an illness that effects westerners, or is particularly nasty, and doesn't have effective treatments etc.

There's coronavirus vaccines for cattle (money is important, more than poor peoples lives). Anything that can actually earn money for research companies (as research is not cheap, and fails a lot), will have people trying for a vaccine. Anything that mainly effects poor africans/indians etc, isn't, there's no profit margin.

Until Sars, there was no need for a coronavirus vaccine in humans. Sars went away quickly, so what was the point. MERS is still around, and as I've said, that's why Oxford is so much further ahead, because they've used a similar basis for covid19 as they had for Mers, meaning they could safely skip a few steps.

[backdoc]

"RNA viruses constitute an important threat to human health around the globe. Several RNA viruses are pandemic and infect hundreds of millions around the world leading to the death of millions of people every year. These viruses include the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), Ebola virus, Zika virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza viruses, yellow fever virus, dengue virus, rhinoviruses (common cold), human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-I), poliovirus, and measles virus. Currently, no vaccine or specific treatment is available for many of these viruses and some of the available vaccines and treatments are not highly effective. "

Journal of Immunology Research
Volume 2018 |Article ID 5473678

Review article.

[Raggs]

"RNA viruses constitute an important threat to human health around the globe. Several RNA viruses are pandemic and infect hundreds of millions around the world leading to the death of millions of people every year. These viruses include the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), Ebola virus, Zika virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza viruses, yellow fever virus, dengue virus, rhinoviruses (common cold), human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-I), poliovirus, and measles virus. Currently, no vaccine or specific treatment is available for many of these viruses and some of the available vaccines and treatments are not highly effective. "

Journal of Immunology Research
Volume 2018 |Article ID 5473678

Review article.

Yes. Just pointing out that it's more than just polio and measles. HIV treatment is now at a hugely advanced stage (and HIV is particularly nasty for hiding), and as pointed out, those nasty ones that do effect westerners (polio, measles etc) do get treatments/vaccines rather quickly. Ebola being a prime example. No one cared enough to pay for it until it started threatening western countries in force. Just as there are many RNA viruses without vaccines and treatments, there are many with as well. Narrowing it further, there are coronavirus vaccines for where there was money to be made from them.

Flu (rna viruses) is nasty enough on an economic front, that it's worthwhile western countries attempting to vaccinate where possible, and against the most prolific strains. Covid19, so far, is still only a single thing to be vaccinated again, making it a far simpler prospect than flu, due to the massive variety of flu viruses (many of which can be vaccinated against, but aren't, due to economics).

I don't know if the vaccines will work, but so far the studies are looking positive, especially as we have many vaccines using different techniques and targeting different parts of the virus.

[backdoc]

Historically much of the vaccine work was charitable - Yellow Fever for example, and the TB MRC studies were paid for by Britain to the benefit of the 'colonies/ex-colonies' in the far East and Africa.

Bill Gates is in the footsteps of Rockefella

[westwaleswasp]

There really is never going to be a common cold vaccine even if one could be found for nothing. Think of all the cash spent on cold remedies.
Big problems with any potential covid vaccine include getting people to actually accept vaccination.