Looking at the last round of matches I think 8th is the best we can hope for. Castres, Stade, Cardiff and Scarlets have tough fixtures. Castres have Quins first up on Friday, Cardiff are away at Toulouse on a 1pm kick off Saturday. Scarlets are at home to Bristol at 5:30 Saturday. Stade are at home to Connaught at 1pm Sunday, with both Bristol and Connaught pushing hard for favourable positions in the top 8 for the round of 16. By the time we play our game against Munster at 3:15 we will know exactly what we need to qualify. Of course all have a chance to win their games, however potentially all could lose and we will be through before we kick a ball. However of the 4 I think Stade and Scarlets have the greatest chance of winning. A 4 point win and they are level with us, which means any BP puts us through. However should they get 5 point wins we need at least a point and for our points difference to be favourable over the others. We are currently on -13. Stade are -38 and Scarlets -63.
I think we may well qualify, but 8th may well be most likely. I think Connaught and Toulouse will win. 7th may be possible as an outside bet if we get more than 2 points and Bordeaux get nothing from their trip to the Tigers.
IF we qualify Racing will be the likely opponents with an outside shout of Ulster with very minimal chance of La Rochelle or Leinster. However it would take some quite unusual results for the last two to be our opponants.
Certainly this weekend is going to be fascinating. I think the mantra for our boys is to go to Munster and enjoy it!