Final 3 rounds

[andermt]

I was surprised to see how close to top 4 we were, still not sure we can get there but thought I’d take a look at the final 3 rounds, I’m sure there will be some disagreement but this is my take for fun.

Top 3 are gone, I know mathematically Sarries and Quinn can still be caught but unlikely.

So below that today we have

Saints - 63pts
———————
Exeter - 62
Glaws - 62
Irish - 58
Wasps - 57
———————
Sale - 56

The others are too far away to affect the Europe places as Bristol are 14 behind sale.

Round 24
Saints vs Quin’s - good chance saints won’t get anything.
Sale vs Falcons - 4pts for sale?
Glaws vs Bath - this should be a win for Glaws but Bath have been close on a few games recently
Tigers vs Bristol - doesn’t affect the mid table
Worcester vs Sarries  - doesn’t affect the mid table
Irish vs Wasps - a must win for wasps

By the end of the weekend it could be

Glaws - 66
———————
Saints - 63
Exeter - 62
Wasps - 62
Sale - 61
———————
Irish - 58

Round 25
Bristol vs Exeter - last home game for Bristol, and with how Exeter have been playing I can see a Bristol win
Wasps vs Sale - another must win for wasps
Bath vs Irish- can’t see Bath winning but stranger things have happened
Quin’s vs Glaws - quins win
Falcons vs Tigers - doesn’t affect the mid table
Sarries vs Saints - can’t see anything other than Sarries win

By the end of the weekend it could be very congested with 5 of the 6 still in with a playoff place

Glaws - 66
———————
Wasps - 66
Saints - 63
Exeter - 62
Irish - 62
———————
Sale - 61

Final round
Exeter vs Quins - will depend on the team quins put out but can see an Exeter win
Glaws vs Sarries - as above but think Sarries
Tigers vs Wasps - can’t see wasps winning but will depend on tigers team
Saints vs Falcons - saints
Sale vs Bristol - sale
Worcester vs Bath - who cares

By the end of the weekend sticking to form

Saints - 68
———————
Glaws - 66
Wasps - 66
Exeter - 66
Sale - 65
———————
Irish - 62

A bit of fun but I think it shows how important the Irish vs Wasps game is for both teams.
Also, how easy it could be for the final table to be manipulated by teams fielding weaker sides if they have already got their home semi as both Wasps and Glaws could end up winning the last week which could get them in the top 4.

[NellyWellyWaspy]

If we do win at Irish, and by a decent margin (more than 15 points), we would be above Chiefs.

[Rugbyintheblood]

I was surprised to see how close to top 4 we were, still not sure we can get there but thought I’d take a look at the final 3 rounds, I’m sure there will be some disagreement but this is my take for fun.

Top 3 are gone, I know mathematically Sarries and Quinn can still be caught but unlikely.

So below that today we have

Saints - 63pts
———————
Exeter - 62
Glaws - 62
Irish - 58
Wasps - 57
———————
Sale - 56

The others are too far away to affect the Europe places as Bristol are 14 behind sale.

Round 24
Saints vs Quin’s - good chance saints won’t get anything.
Sale vs Falcons - 4pts for sale?
Glaws vs Bath - this should be a win for Glaws but Bath have been close on a few games recently
Tigers vs Bristol - doesn’t affect the mid table
Worcester vs Sarries  - doesn’t affect the mid table
Irish vs Wasps - a must win for wasps

By the end of the weekend it could be

Glaws - 66
———————
Saints - 63
Exeter - 62
Wasps - 62
Sale - 61
———————
Irish - 58

Round 25
Bristol vs Exeter - last home game for Bristol, and with how Exeter have been playing I can see a Bristol win
Wasps vs Sale - another must win for wasps
Bath vs Irish- can’t see Bath winning but stranger things have happened
Quin’s vs Glaws - quins win
Falcons vs Tigers - doesn’t affect the mid table
Sarries vs Saints - can’t see anything other than Sarries win

By the end of the weekend it could be very congested with 5 of the 6 still in with a playoff place

Glaws - 66
———————
Wasps - 66
Saints - 63
Exeter - 62
Irish - 62
———————
Sale - 61

Final round
Exeter vs Quins - will depend on the team quins put out but can see an Exeter win
Glaws vs Sarries - as above but think Sarries
Tigers vs Wasps - can’t see wasps winning but will depend on tigers team
Saints vs Falcons - saints
Sale vs Bristol - sale
Worcester vs Bath - who cares

By the end of the weekend sticking to form

Saints - 68
———————
Glaws - 66
Wasps - 66
Exeter - 66
Sale - 65
———————
Irish - 62

A bit of fun but I think it shows how important the Irish vs Wasps game is for both teams.
Also, how easy it could be for the final table to be manipulated by teams fielding weaker sides if they have already got their home semi as both Wasps and Glaws could end up winning the last week which could get them in the top 4.

Thank you this is a brilliant post, great analysis. I love seeing the twists and turns that are possible.

A few months ago, I put a bet on 🐝 to win the play offs at 100/1 so hoping I can keep that dopey dream alive a little longer 🏆

[Peej]

I think we may beat Irish, but they seem to be going pretty well and are strong at home. We never seem to cope well with Sale's power, even if they are dreadful away. And I can't see us getting anything from the last game at Welford Road.

A lot depends on next week, but I still think we'll finish 9th. Would love to be wrong!

[Wombles]

Interesting analysis, thankyou!
My two pennies worth is that 6th would be a wonderful finish. Given the numbers of games left it is going all out every single fixture, and really go full bore at winning the challenge cup.

Anything is possible. But Irish at their home, Sale at the CBS, and IMHO title favourites Tigers at WR are phenomenally difficult games. Sunday is a massive game fo pr us and Irish!

[andermt]

As said all a bit of fun.
I looked at best rose tinted results for Wasps for the remaining matches, I think whoever wins this weekend between Irish & wasps will need the 4 tries to do so.
The positions show just how critical this weekends game is for both Wasps and Irish.
I also haven't added any losing bonus points, whoever loses in Irish wasps could pick up 1 or 2, similarly I think Quins will beat Saints but Saints could easily get a losing bonus.

Wasps may get a losing bonus or 2 against Tigers.

Also the Glaws vs Bath game could be an interesting one as Bath seem to be getting better, and Glaws haven't won much recently.

The final table could easily be

Saints - 70
———————
Wasps - 68
Exeter - 67
Sale - 66
Irish - 64
———————
Glaws - 63

[welsh wasp]

Remember we beat Tigers at home. A surprise to all/most of us as we still had so many injuries. And I can remember beating a confident Leicester at Twickenham.
On the other hand, I can’t remember when we last beat them at Welford Road.
Not sure if any of this history means anything but…..

[hookender]

Don’t forget by time we play Tigers , they should have a guaranteed home semi final -and possibly been in a European final the week before ( though hopefully so have we!) They may choose to rest one or two key players?

[Peej]

Didn't Steve Staunton kick the winner the last time we won at Welford Road?

[backdoc]

Jeremy Staunton

[JonnyD]

Didn't Steve Staunton kick the winner the last time we won at Welford Road?

There’s a blast from the roundball past

[Wiltshire Wasp]

If we make the play offs it will be as exciting as Dave Wottle in the 800m Olympic final and even more unexpected.

[MarleyWasp]

Didn't Steve Staunton kick the winner the last time we won at Welford Road?

Jeremy kicked 23 point when we won there in September 2008. We also won there in March 2008 and September 2016.

[Westy68]

The Irish and Sale games are very difficult to call, on paper I think we should win but its not being played on paper. Irish are playing tomorrow and I thing they will put out a decent team, so that may help us.

Last game of the season at home may give us a slight advantage against Sale but who knows.

Then it will be all to play against tigers who may be thinking about future games.

Personally I think I have more chance winning the lottery then Wasps winning all 3 matches, its just a shame will played so awful against a poor Bristol team

[DGP Wasp]

The simple equation for Wasps is that if we get those 2 crucial wins against Irish and Sale then we will finish above them and therefore guarantee top 8 regardless of our visit to Welford Rd.  That has to be the priority.

4th is the longest of long shots and we would need everything to go our way in some of those other games to sneak it.  Top 4 may be beyond our reach realistically, but every place further up the table is a more favourable Champions' Cup draw next season, so worth fighting for every point.
So how many of Glaws, Saints and Chiefs we can overhaul will then determine whether we finish 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th.  These are the key matches that we will need to go in our favour:

R24:
Saints to get nothing at home to Quins.  Distinctly possible.
Glaws fail to win at home to Bath.  Long shot, but not out of the question as Bath have improved.
(Exeter not playing)

R25:
Bristol to beat Exeter at home.  Bristol's last home game of the season, so they will be up for it, and Exeter are having a wobble.  Could happen.
Glaws and Saints to get nothing from their visits to Quins and Sarries respectively.  Realistic.

R26:
Exeter and Glaws to get nothing from their home games against Quins and Sarries respectively.  Again, possible.
Hard to see Saints getting anything less than maximum points at home to Newcastle.

Each of these outcomes is perfectly plausible, but the chances of all of them coming in are slim (which is what makes accumulator bets so attractive).  If the above wish list were to come true, then the table with 1 game to play could have all 3 of Glaws, Saints and Chiefs on 62-64 points depending on BPs, with Irish also there or thereabouts if they beat Bath, Sale just behind, and Wasps sitting 4th on 67.  That would certainly make for an interesting trip to WR!

First things first though.  Control what we can control and beat Irish and Sale.