We're keeping the bookmakers busy

[wasps]

Earlier this month we were 100/1 to win the premiership with Betfair.


Our recent form has seen that cut to 25/1

[backdoc]

I only bet £20!

[Rugbyintheblood]

Earlier this month we were 100/1 to win the premiership with Betfair.


Our recent form has seen that cut to 25/1

Timing is everything - backed 🐝 at 100/1 just a week or so ago. Wow it’s going to be interesting to watch how it all plays out through to the end of the season. COYW 🐝

[wasps]

Yeah, I got on at 100s too.

To be honest, I'm not that confident of making top 4, let alone winning it........
But I feel that 100/1 was worth it

[backdoc]

That is the point of betting. Particularly with cash-out.

[califauna]

I would never advocate gambling, but if one is going to do it, I suggest doing it using a betting exchange such as Smarkets. Whole new level of crazy betting at a traditional bookmakers these days in my view, now that exchanges have appeared. There is no bookies spread on an exchange (better odds, lower cost overall), they don't bombard you with gambling adverts, teasers and false promos to hook you like traditional bookies, they don't deliberately make keeping track of your losses difficult like bookies do, and they don't give you shit if you have winnings to collect, as far as I know.

Oh, and bookies really get their pound of flesh with cash-out and stuff like that, relatively speaking.  That's why they try and get you to do it and make the cash out buttons so easy to accidentally hit. If you are looking to 'lock in' profits like that from long odds bets before they are settled (eg. take advantage of your 100/1 odds bet, even if they don't actually end up winning the final), in my view you're better off doing the 'opposite' side of betting (once you have laid the initial bet of course, and the odds shorten), again using the exchange, which is called 'laying'. It's basically where you act as the 'bookie'. You can use that to take advantage of such bets where the odds shorten over time, so you don't lose everything even if they don't win. You have to learn a bit about how it works so you don't accidentally lay too much, but it's not all that complicated.  PM me or post here if anyone feels I may be able to help with some question about that stuff (or have a different point of view on exchanges).

Examples are Smarkets SBK, Betfair Exchange, and Betdaq.  Smarkets SBK seems the best one to me.

No vested interest here - I just detest how shady and full of BS bookmakers are (and the regulators) and how cynically they screw people over.

[backdoc]

Disagree.

Cashout during the game is pitting your wits against the computer program.

[califauna]

Disagree.

Cashout during the game is pitting your wits against the computer program.

Mate you're pitting your wits against the traders, not a computer program, as far as I know, but I make no claim about that in my post either way. The reason you get shafted, relatively speaking, by 'cash-outs' at traditional bookmakers is not the algorithm or level of expertise of the bookie (although it's that as well of course), it's the percentage they take, the offloading of risk (onto the punter) that is built into the 'cash-out' feature, and the other punter hostile strategies employed, as mentioned in my post above.  Exchanges don't take that cut, or offload risk onto layers or betters.  They have no mechanism to do it, in fact. They do take a small percentage, and that's how they make their money, but only if you win on the bet/lay.  Bookies take a bigger percentage overall, and regardless of whether you win or lose!

Next time you do a cash out, take a look at what you get, then compare it with what you would get if you used an exchange instead, using a 'lay' at the exchange.

The bottom line is, if there wasn't a gain in it for the bookie they wouldn't offer a cash-out feature in the first place!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish

Edit: *Good* exchanges don't take that cut or offload risk to layers or betters in this way. I can't speak for all exchanges out there, but Smarkerts SBK don't do it, and indeed have no mechanisms for doing it.

[MarleyWasp]

I got 80/1 on Betfred last Saturday just after the Exeter game. We're now 25/1 there.

[Rossm]

Disagree.

Cashout during the game is pitting your wits against the computer program.

Mate you're pitting your wits against the traders, not a computer program, as far as I know, but I make no claim about that in my post either way. The reason you get shafted, relatively speaking, by 'cash-outs' at traditional bookmakers is not the algorithm or level of expertise of the bookie (although it's that as well of course), it's the percentage they take, the offloading of risk (onto the punter) that is built into the 'cash-out' feature, and the other punter hostile strategies employed, as mentioned in my post above.  Exchanges don't take that cut or offload risk to layers or betters.  They have no mechanism to do it, in fact. They do take a small percentage, and that's how they make their money, but only if you win on the bet/lay.  Bookies take a bigger percentage overall, and regardless of whether you win or lose!

Next time you do a cash out, take a look at what you get, then compare it with what you would get if you used an exchange instead, using a 'lay' at the exchange.

The bottom line is, if there wasn't a gain in it for the bookie they wouldn't offer a cash-out feature in the first place!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish

This. I used to be a dice dealer for 5 years in the seventies. Whatever the house 'offers' you, it will ultimately be to their benefit.

[backdoc]

But not necessarily against you.
That is the point.

[St Bruno]

I haven't understood a word of this thread! Last time I had a gamble, I spent half-a-crown in the office sweepstake on the Grand National. My horse was the first faller!

[califauna]

But not necessarily against you.
That is the point.

I think I understand what you mean here (it would help if you explained), but it's still a zero sum game at the end of the day - to the extent that the bookie reduces their risk the punter's risk increases. Sure, it may be the case that having a 'cash-out' option means you win sometimes when you would otherwise lose everything, but the bookie is always seeking to offload risk away from them and onto the punter, regardless whether opting for a cash-out turns out to be the right decision in any particular occasion, and most of the time they judge that risk right (actually they just tip the odds more and more in their favor and increase the vigourish until it's pretty much guaranteed, for example by giving the best punters lousier and lousier 'cash-out' value so even they lose in the end).

If one must get involved in it at all, the most important thing for people to be aware of in my view is that there are better alternatives, from the punter's point of view, to using bookie's 'cash-out' option (the one's I mention above) if you want to take advantage of odds on a bet shortening after one has made it.

[Brandnewtorugby]

I got good odds on Wasps as well. Note of caution, most people with a gambling problem cite the day they had their first big win as the worst day of their life...

[Rossm]

I must admit, I am not familiar with on line betting. However I'm wiling to bet that you don't get the absolutely correct odds pay out if you exercise your cash out option. The bookie will always take a piece of your action, however small. As califauna posts, that's the vig. Of course he's already ahead of the game when you've made your original bet, that's the vig working again.